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Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Deciphering the Cal Expo Pick 4

Tomorrow night is the first night of the $10,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 as part of the USTA Strategic Wagering Program.  To commemerate the kick off of this bet, I will take a stab at hitting in.  In each of the races, I will give you my selection to win the race, but will list other horses you need to consider if you plan to take more than a stab at the Pick 4.

Since there are two Pick 4's on the card, I will make selections for both of them.  While the early Pick 4 (Races 2-5) do not have a guarantee like the late Pick 4 (Races 6-9), both feature a 15% takeout rate.

Early Pick 4 (15% Takeout)
Race 2 - Pace; $3,900 - Claiming 12,000 F&M
3 - Biggest Big Bertha (Plano, 6-5) - Winner of last week in $12,0000 optional claimer has a good spot and chance to repeat.
2 - Castle Oaks (Maier, 2-1) - Daughter of Hi Ho Silverheels (who raced at Meadowlands) has been just there in last two.  Can take on top pick.
1 - Bewareofthisaffair (Kennedy, 10-1) - Has not race as well, but last time in straight $12K, gave good efforts.  Would consider if looking to to get a longshot on the ticket for this race.

Race 3 - Trot; $2,400 - Maidens
7 - Lodi Nickolus (Girard, 3-1) - Won season debut in CASS easily but was only in against field of three. Has shown breaks at the start in qualifiers.  Must consider but would not single.
3 - Thatsomebracciola (Plano, 4-5) - Jumped off in sire stake when moving.  Has just missed in two maiden events. 
8 - Winsom Kelly (Cisco, 12-1) - Broke in last two but in two back recovered to finish 3rd.  Adds Lasix.  If behaves (a big if), could be in there.  Proceed at your own caution on this leg.

Race 4 - Pace; $2,400 - Maidens
7 - Diamond Player (Cisco, 9-5) - Just missed in CASS.  Has shown ability from post seven in this class.  Must include.
6 - Poor House (Hyman, 8-5) - Finished third in CASS from post nine.  figures imrpovement against lower company .
1 - Lil Hope (Maier, 10-1) - Makes career debut.  Consider only if willing to expand cost of your ticket.

Race 5 - Trot; $1,800 - Claiming $2,500 NW $800 in Last 5
7 - Pussy Cat (Wojcio, 9-2)  - Wiped out in last, showed two good efforts against bettor.  May be worth a single.
Possible Ticket -  2,3/3,7 /1,6,7/7 Cost - $12
 
Late Pick 4 - $10,000 Gtd - 15% Takeout
Race 6 - Trot; $2,700 - N/W 2 or $4,000 Lifetime
10 - Claim Jumper (Desomer, 2-1) - Easy sires stakes winner and has won in this company.  Post only knock.
6 - Final Chapter (Wjocio, 3-1) - Never puts in bad effort.  Threat.

Race 7 - Pace; $2,900 - FM Claiming$4-$6k
6 - Persuade Me (Svendsen, 3-1) - Drops from $12K and was not racing bad.  Could be a single.
4 - KikiskissinkKousin (Maier, 4-1) - Winner in last.  Could repeast.
1 - Tax Dancer (Cisco, 8-1) - Worth a look if going for high odds.

Race 8 - Trot;  $2,000; $2,500 Claiming
2 - Hope Tue Place (Svendsen, 2-1) - Has ruled this condition and should repeat.
4 - Letter of Intent (Kennedy, 8-1) - Tough trips, could pop with a trip.
6 - Bettor Approval (Maier, 5-2) - Good efforts in each start.  Post some concern.

Race 9 - Pace; $2,700; Cond Claiming $7,500 N/W 3 Race Lifetime 
7 - Fakeutu Bluegrass (Maier, 2-1) - Stepped up to just miss versus open claimers.
1 - W D Cowboy Justice (Schneider, 4-1) - No chance in last.  Threat from rail.
4 - Jeano (Kennedy, 6-1) - Two strong efforts but moving up.  Consider if looking for odds.
Possible Ticket - 6,10/6/2,4,6/1,7 Cost - $24

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