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Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Cal Expo Pick 4 Picks for Thursday Evening - Pisto's Selections (Updated)

For those of you taking advantage of the $10,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 at Cal Expo Thursday night, we have Pisto's selections for the Late Pick 4 to get a local feel for how the sequence should play out.  For those who are curious about being able to see the races, if your ADW doesn't show the races life, the Cal Expo website has live streaming video on their website so you can check the races out here.  I have not yet had a chance to look at either of the Pick 4s on Thursday evening and if time permits, I will add them after Pisto's picks for the late Pick 4.

Here is Pisto's analysis:

Red Star Wild One gets top pick in kickoff leg of Pick 4

The Thursday night Cal Expo Guaranteed Gross Late Pick 4 Pool of $10,000 kicks off in race 6 and Red Star Wild One (#7) gets the nod for the top pick. A winner of 5 of 17 starts in 2011, the race looks like it sets up perfectly for his mad late kick. Rounding out Pisto’s $40 Late Pick 4 ticket are:

Race 6- 7
Race 7- 1,3,4,5
Race 8- 6,7
Race 9- 1,2,4,5,6

The Early and Late Pick 4’s at Cal Expo on Thursday and Saturday nights carry a reduced takeout of 15%. The Late Pick 4 Guaranteed Gross Pool on Saturdays is $15,000

I have finally had the opportunity to look at the two Pick 4s for Thursday evening and want to share my selections with you.  First up is the early Pick 4 with a 15% takeout but not guaranteed gross pool.

In the second race, I like Deano's Hi Ho. (#3, 8-1).  In his last start, he started out of post ten in an optional $4,000 claiming event and finished seventh, 3 1/2 lengths of the winner.  When he raced in this class, a conditioned claiming race for non-winners of one, he was consistently picking up checks.  With the drop down, and the move inside, he may be a worthwhile horse to enter in your ticket.  After him, Afinetouchofclass (#2, 4-1) attempted to wire the field in his last start to quit at the end.  A better rated trip may get him into the winner's circle.  As for the heavy morning line favorite No Strings (#1, 6-5), it is true he held together in a CA Sire stakes event, but he finished 18 lengths off.  He shows to many breaks for me to include him; I'll risk the change of him beating me.  I would use the #2 and #3 in this race.

In the third race, I like Letter of Intent (#6, 2-1) as my top pick.  He has been racing consistent in $2,500 claimers group 1 and 2 company and the drop to group 3 may be all he needs.  Princess Joy (#2, 8-1) is a cautions second choice.  Yes, he was clear in the stretch and finished a well beaten 3rd at 40-1, so he is either improving or got lucky last week.  If you are looking to add a longshot to your sequence, she may be worth a look.  The other one you want to look at is K D Shenanigans (#1, 12-1).  The horse drops down after getting horrible posts and never had a chance in recent starts.  The rail may be what the doctor ordered.  I would certainly include #6 in the sequence, and depending on your bank roll, consider including #1 and/or #2 on your ticket.

The fourth race is another field of conditioned claimer and Hi Fidelity (#3, 8-5) looks hard to go buy.  She got destroyed after trying to wire them in the sires stakes but adds Lasix the first time which suggests she bled in her last start.    She drops down from a horrible trip in her previous race and in her last attempt in the CA Sire Sakes, she tired to fifth.  With the Lasix, she may be a different horse this week.  The other horse, I like is the Fraiser Downs invader Moody Miss (#5, 7-2) who picks up Steve Wiseman.  This mare has been racing more than credible in $6,000 claiming up in British Columbia.  If tight, she will be there.

In the fifth race finale, maidens take to the track; not exactly the way you want to end a Pick 4 sequence.  I am going to attempt a single with Ally Chandon (#5, 3-1).  She has a record of 3-0-2-1 so she seems ready to move up and break her maiden.  Hence in this race, I would go with #5.

Early Pick 4 Selections:  2,3/1,2,6/ 3,5/5 - $12 investment.   

Now moving on to the late Pick 4 with the guaranteed $10,000 pool, here are my selections for that sequence:

In the sixth race, while I like Red Star Wild One (#7, 3-1), like Pisto does, I can't single him.  Paul The Powerful (#1,2-1) draws the rail after a couple of outside attempts and has been the favorite in the last five starts.  More importantly, he has been claimed in 3 of his last four starts which indicates he is a hot horse on the track.  From the rail, while not as fast in the stretch as Red Star Wild One, the speed may not help Pisto's top selection. My selections here are #1 and #7,

The seventh race is a field of NW2 pacers.  Here I see two horses for consideration.  Achy Breaky Art (#3, 7-2) lost his chance to win his last start, a sire stakes event when he humped in the stretch.  Prior to that, he won two straight races.  If not for the fact he broke on April 2 as well, he would be a likely single. 
Since we can't be sure Achy Breaky Hart won't jump again, I will back him up with MJ's Last Dance (#8, 9-2) who one a NW3/7,500 claiming event and two out his last three.  Yes, he moves outside, but he did win when he raced from the outside so the post is not a concern for me.  My selections are #3 and #8.

The eighth race is a Group 2 field of $2,500 trotting claimers and is where I will likely go deepest.  Boo Coo Blush (#7, 5-2) has been racing well since her last qualifier.  The only question here is whether or not she can handle the outer post.  Maledictorian (#3, 6-1), Went three wide last week to finish third.  A better drive this week, may be the difference and offers some value.  Franky Provolone (#6, 5-2) attempted to wire the field in his last start for group 1 pacers and quit in the deep stretch.  The slight class drop may be the difference  I'm looking at including #3, 6, and 7 on my ticket.

Finally, the ninth race, the last leg of the sequence is a field of straight $4k claimers.   Doit By the Clock (#4, 9-2) is my top pick as he has been sharp in his last two starts coming of a scratch.  Picking up Rick Plano only improves his changes.  Hanover D G N  (#5, 7-2) finished third last weeks after having no cover.  A better trip give this veteran a chance.  Lastly, if you are looking for a little value Larry Horse (#7, 6-1) won his last in this company but moves to the far outside. Whether or he handles the outside, is the question.  Fourth leg selections are #4,5, and 7.

Late Pick 4 Selection: 1,7/3,8/3,6,7/4,5,7 Total Investment - $36

Good Luck tonight.

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