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Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Cal Expo Pick 4s for April 21

Time for an advance look at the Pick 4s for Thursday night at Cal Expo.  The early Pick 4 with the 15% takeout has a couple of maiden events which makes it a little tricky to play but there are actually horses that stand out. 

In the second race, the first of the maiden events, #3 Bigtown Hero looks to be the standout and will be singled by me.  Making his first time start, Bigtown Hero qualified in 2:01.3 coming home in :30.1.  Any similar trip wins the race.  If you have to look for another horse, #1 Ally Chandon would be the saver. 

The third race a $2,500 claiming group 3 event looks like a two horse play.  #2 Pussy Cat has been racing tough trips and when he gets an easy trip he is darn close.  With the driver change to Luke Plano, it may be all which is necessary to get the horse there first.  #1 My Tryin Ryan is a logical selection who last week from the eight hole attempted to wire the field to finish fifth, beaten only 2+ lengths.  From the rail, he figures to be much closer and can take my top choice. 

The fourth race, another Maiden event looks to be a single.  #6 Swing Vote seems to be the horse to beat finishing 2nd in his last start and is the only horse to show 50% of their starts in the money.

In the fifth race finale, I see three horses to be played.  #2 Matty Rose finished 3rd in this class last week and looks to be worth another chance.  #7 Bahama Bay Bea is my second choice who with the barn change woke up and finished second.  The surprise horse maybe #6 Precious Few who attempted to wire the field and bottomed out finishing sixth, fifteen lengths off.  With Lasix being added this week, the chance of him not stopping.

My play for the early Pick 4 is  3/1,2/6/2,6,7 and will only cost $6 to play.

Now for the late Pick 4 with the guaranteed $10,000 pool and 15% takeout, it's a little more difficult.

In the sixth race, I like #6 Cash Allowance.  While there is a big driver change, what I like is last week he made two moves.  With the drop down, this may be an easy spot for him.  However, it is not a walk over.  #1 Long Last Look is riding a three week win streak and #5 Shoot the Works has been a consistent horse that one last week.

In the seventh race #1 Letter of Intent is my slight favorite.  Finishing two+ lengths back in group 1 company, the mare gets class relief here in group 2 company..  #6 Mr Me finished third last week from the same post and could add value.  #4 Boo Coo Blush the likely favorite can't be ignored.  Though moving up a class from last week's win it comes off a qualifying effort.

The eighth race brings us #5 Satire who was impeded in the stretch but still won last week.  #9 Nittany Linebacker drops quite a bit, but the post is tough.  That being said, I wouldn't toss him.  $4 Star Time Kid just missed last time out  and is a factor once more.

In the ninth race finale, #4 Red Star Wild One was game last week racing brave and just missed and deserves another shot.  #1 Larry Horse swaps drivers picking up Steve Wiseman over the trainer Frank Petrelli.  With the trainer dropping off, improvement is expected.  Lastly #8 Paul The Powerful, the favorite, was strong last week from the eight hole, quitting just at the end.  With Luke Plano, picking up the reigns, it may be the difference needed.

This Pick 4 requires me to go deeper.  My selection is 1, 5, 6/ 1, 4, 6/4, 5, 9/1, 4, 8 for a total investment of $81.

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