First of all, I would encourage everyone to read the disclosure on the top of the blog page regarding my handicapping selections. I thought posting them there would be sufficient but apparently I need to refer people to them periodically.
That being said, let me state the obvious:
This is not a handicapping site. The main purpose of this site is to discuss issues facing the industry from the perspective of the racing fan. That being said, there are times I will provide my selections (a no-win job if I say myself) due the significance of the events. As a rule I avoid eliminations because of what I feel will be the amazing reversal of forms that occur in the finals by some horses. However, there are times such as the Breeders Crown I will go ahead and break my own rule regarding handicapping eliminations.
However, in those cases I do provide handicapping information, you should keep the following in mind:
My goal in providing selections to those who read my blog is to give them something to think about and consider as they are doing their own handicapping; a different view as it were. If you are just betting my picks straight I would suggest not playing the horses as you need to ultimately make your own decisions. If you are just following anyone's selections blindly you have no business wagering.
You should also remember my selections are often made two or three days ahead of time. Hence I base my selections on the morning line. As any good bettor knows just because you pick a horse ahead of time to win, your pick may change along with the odds. A horse who may be a good bet at 6-1 may be a disastrous wager at 4-5.
If you expect expert "can't lose" selections, I suggest you consult one of those sites that charge for their selections. If you are paying for selections, then you have a reasonable expectation of can't lose picks. Here you just get an opinion, something to consider while you are doing your own handicapping. I hope you find them worthwhile reading, but remember what they are; opinions and nothing more.
I hope this clears things up.