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Thursday, August 4, 2011

Hambletonian Day Preview

The highlight of the 2011 racing season at the Meadowlands comes late Saturday morning with Hambletonian Day beginning.  The gates open at 9:30am with the first race beginning at 11:30. 

There are some guaranteed pools for Saturday's card.  They are:

  • 6th Race   - $150,000 guaranteed Pick-4
  • 9th Race   - $200,000 guaranteed Trifecta Pool
  • 9th Race   - $50,000 guaranteed Pick-5
  • 12th Race - $50,000 guaranteed Pick-4
Pick-5 wagering is offered starting with the first race and the ninth race.  With rolling Pick-3s starting with the 2nd race.  Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta wagering is offered in each race.  Daily Double wagering is offered starting with the 1st, 8th (special) and 14th races.  The Pick-6 begins with the 4th race.  Pick-4s start with the 6th and 12th races.
With the exception overnight or minor stakes, I provide my opinion of each horse.  For the minor stakes and overngiht race, I am only providing you my top four picks. 
With the 3yo trotting divisions being open, I would suggest looking for some value picks.   While the favorites may win the Oaks and the Hambletonian, considering how open the divisions have been, looking for value is key.  Remember, you have a lot of once a year people showing up so they will support the morning line choices with gusto providing extreme value plays.

Here are my selections for the entire Hambletonian card.  Realize depending on how the odds go, my wager may change.  These selections are based on the assumption that the morning line will basically remain "as is", with little change.

For further information regarding the Hambletonian, the Oaks and Nat Ray, you may read this column courtesy of the French trotting site - Newstrot.

In the meanwhile, here are my selections;
1st Trot - $50,000; Townsend Ackerman - 3yo Colts and Geldings
3 - Whatever It Takes (A Miller, 3-1)
4 - Big Sky Storm (D Miller, 5-1)
6 - Orlando (M Lachance, 7-2)
5 - Wind And A Prayer (R Pierce, 9-2)

2nd Trot - $100,000; Perretti Farms Matchmaker - FFA Mares
6 - Action-Broadway (B Sears, 5-2)
4 - Jersey As (G Brennan, 10-1)
7 - Mystical Starlight (E Goodell, 8-1)
3 - Miss Dangles (R Zeron, 8-1)

3rd Pace - $102,750; Oliver Wendell Holmes - 3yo Colts and Geldings (1st Division, No Show Wagering)
5 - Big Jim (P Hudon, 8-5)
4 - Roll With Joe (R Pierce, 7-5)
3 - Hugadragon (Y Gingras, 10-1)
1 - Rock'em (D Miller, 5-1)

4th Trot - $333,200; Merrie Annabelle Final - 2yo Fillies
  1 - Upside Hanover (R Pierce, 5-1) - Rail improves chances to get in the money.
  2 - Check Me Out (T Tetrick, 9-5) - Perfect 5 for 5.  Seens to be above the rest.
  3 - Miss Paris (D Miller, 7-2) - Making third start; eligible to move forward.
  4 - Swinging Nadine (B Sears, 12-1) - May be a step below the best.
  5 - Aunt Mel (J Morrill Jr, 15-1) - Does not seem to be as talented as lead contenders.
  6 - D'orsay (Y Gingras, 10-1) - Unpredictable as to staying on stride.  Your guess.
  7 - Love Walked In (A Miller, 8-1) - Distant second last week and draws outside that winner.
  8 - Quarantine S (G Brennan, 15-1) -  Managed to qualify for final.  Won't pick up a check today.
  9 - Sterling Volo (M Lachance, 15-1)-  Broke in strech last time.  Must show me more.
10 - Bluff (T Smedshammer, 15-1) - Post eliminates from contention.
AE - Dream On Hanover (B Miller, NL) - In to race at PcD5/8 Friday night (race 4)
Selections: 2-1-3-4

5th Trot - $400,000; Peter Haughton Memorial Final - 2yo Colts and Geldings
  1 - Big Chocolate (H Hochstetler, 5-1) -  Was parked entire mile to victory and draws rail.
  2 - Lightning Storm (Y Gingras, 9-2) -  Recovered off bad start to win elimination.  Consider.
  3 - Quit Smoking Now (B Sears, 7-2) - Couldn't take advantage of rail last week.  Why now?
  4 - No Frosting (D Miller, 15-1) - A distant third last week.  Don't expect better.
  5 - Trojan Horse (T Smedshammer, 15-1) - Doesn't seem to be able to keep up with these fractions.
  6 - Power Play (A Miller, 3-1) - Made two moves and finished 2nd in debut.  Expect improvement.
  7 - Astarsborn Hanover ( R Schnittker, 15-1) - Winner of minor stakes.  Would appear overmatched.
  8 - Nothing But Class (Jo Takter, 10-1) - Only plus is driver comes in from Europe for this horse.
  9 - Possess The Will (T Tetrick, 8-1) - Consistent sort that draws outside.  May be a problem.
10 - Blmkvisit (R Pierce, 10-1) - Broke last two starts.  Must show me he can stay flat.
Selections: 1-2-6-9

6th Pace - $174,250; US Pacing Championship - FFA (Division 1, Start of $150,000 Gtd Pick 4)
1 - Delmarvalous (B Sears, 8-1) - Seems to have problems against the top tier.
2 - We Will See (R Pierce, 3-1) - Expect big improvement with better post draw.
3 - Ideal Matters (D Palone, 10-1) - Tough spot here.  Pass.
4 - Vlos (T Tetrick, 10-1) - Aiming high here.
5 - Kyle Major (G Brennan, 15-1) - Hasn't been good of late.  Pass.
6 - Won The West (D Miller, 5-2) - Not the same horse anymore but can't rule out.
7 - Atochia (Y Gingras, 12-1) - Consistent against the best.  Share with trip.
8 - Giddy Up Lucky (E Goodell, 5-1) - Just missed in Battle of Lake Erie against Foiled Again.  Threat.
9 - Aracache Hanover (D McNair, 6-1) - Horse can never be ruled out.  Will need trip.
Selections: 8-2-9-7

7th Trot - $300,000; Nat Ray - Invitational
  1 - Lucky Jim (A Miller, 8-1) - Expect improvement after last week's disaster.
  2 - Il Villaggio, T Tetrick, 5-1) - Could not advance in MLT and won here.  Should be tougher.
  3 - Hot Shot Blue Chip (D Miller, 12-1) -  Never challenged in last start.
  4 - Arch Madness (B Sears, 5-2) - Draws inside his nemisis. 
  5 - San Pail (R Waples, 3-1) - Despite all the talk about racing in Canada, gelding has won here before.  Top pick.
  6 - Anders Bluestone (D Palone, 15-1) - Appears out of his league.
  7 - Premiere Steed (G Brennan, 20-1) - Has raced against top horses in Europe. Will pop eventually..  Long shot.
  8 - In Focus (R Pierce, 10-1) - Nice horse but not in this league.
  9 - Winning Mister (Y Gingras, 8-1) - Finished second last week.  Post becomes challenge.
10 - Corleone Kosmos (J Campbell, 12-1) -  The old guy still puts it together ever once in a while.  Tough from here.
Selections: 5-4-2-1 (7)

8th Trot - $750,000; Hambletonian Oaks Final - 3yo Fillies (Oaks - Hambo Daily Double)
  1 - Iron Lady (M Lachance, 5-1) - Staying flat is the question.  I say yes.
  2 - Crys Dream (L Ouellette, 7-5)  - Won off six week layoff.  Obviously the one to beat but odds on by post.
  3 - Seducedbychocolate (D Miller, 20-1) - Winless this year.  Never a good sign.
  4 - Lady Rainbow (R Zeron, 10-1) - Had bad trip in last and finished 3rd.  Legitimate long shot.
  5 - Bold And Fresh (R Pierce, 12-1) - Races well against PA Breds.  This is against open.
  6 - Sashay (R Pierce, 15-1) - Consistent sort.  May be a factor if favorites fold.
  7 - Hey Mister (B Sears, 4-1) - Suffered first loss of year in last race.  Moves outside.
  8 - Wincinnatti (Y Gingras, 15-1) - Don't see getting involved in this race.
  9 - Martiniontherocks (T Ritchie, 15-1) - Horse is mediocre.  Can never tosss Ritchie in a trot race.
10 - Jezzy (T Tetrick, 6-1) - Toss last.  Has been a monster up till then.  Post is the question.
Selections: 1-2-4-10

9th Trot - $1,500,000; Hambletonian Final - 3yo Open ($200,000 Gtd Trifecta, $50,000 Gtd Pick 5)
  1 - Broad Bahn (G Brennan, 4-1) - Has been racing against the best of late and draws rail.  My pick.
  2 - Manofmanymissions (A Miller, 9-5) - The logical choice but offers no value.
  3 - Fawkes (Y Gingras, 15-1) - Was tracking elimination winner and couldn't keep up.
  4 - Chapter Seven (M Lachance, 7-2) - Just missed off horrible trip.  Consider.
  5 - Whit (T Tetrick, 8-1) - Just don't see him as a Hambletonian champion.
  6 - Whisky Tax (R Waples, 15-1) - Reunited with Waples.  That's a plus.
  7 - Opening Night (J Campbell, 10-1) - Would be a story book ending.  Don't see it though.
  8 - Magnum Kosmos (B Sears, 15-1) - Draws poorly.  Will hurt chance.
  9 - Luckycharm Hanover (D Miller, 15-1) - Tough task from here.
10 - Pastor Stephen (R Pierce, 10-1) - Supposedly recovered and rewarded with bad post.  Your call.
Selections: 1-2-4-7

10th Trot - $75,000; Vincennes Trot - Invitational
1 - Neighsay Hanover, (R Schnittker, 15-1)
2 - Rose Run Hooligan (S Allard, 3-1)
5 - Waldorf Hall (T Tetrick, 10-1)
7 - Bastille (J Campbell, 15-1)


11th Pace - $272,500 - Misteltoe Shalee - Final - 3yo Fillies
  1 - Drop The Ball (Y Gingras, 8-1) - Three breaks in a row.  Must show problems are over.
  2 -  Idyllic (D Miller, 4-1) - The two in front of him last time draws the worst.  One to beat?
  3 - Strike An Attitude (D Palone, 5-1) - Strong start last.  Can't rule out.
  4 - Swinging Beauty (D McNair, 10-1) - Been consisted.  Don't ignore.
  5 - Rocklamation (A Miller, 10-1) - Just don't think she's a winner here.
  6 - Native Daughter (L Ouellette,  15-1) - Broke last two starts.
  7 - Pretty Katherine (R Pierce, 12-1) - Tired late and expect the same again.
  8 - Jamaica Hanover (G Brennana, 15-1) - Midwest shipper failed in debut.
  9 - Myluvmylife (B Sears, 8-1) - Finished 2nd last week and gets a poor draw.
10 - Krispy Apple (T Tetrick, 2-1) - On paper the best but draws the wost of it.  May land share.
Selections:  2-3-9-10

12th Pace - $174,250; US Pacing Championship - FFA (2nd Division, $50,000 Gtd Pick 4)
1 - Hypnotic Blue Chip (J Jamieson, 5-2) - Racing well and gets the rail.
2 - Foiled Again (Y Gingras, 5-1) - Fried in last.  More reasonable fractions here. Pick here.
3 - All Speed Hanover (R Pierce, 12-1) - May be in a little too deep.
4 - Vintage Master (D Dube, 10-1) - Seems to be off form.
5 - Alexi Mattosie (D Miller, 6-1) - Need to go back to see some possibility.
6 - Bettor Sweet (B Sears, 9-5) - Logical horse but won't take at these odds.
7 - Dial Or Nodial (G Brennan, 10-1) - Speedy but may be just a notch below.
8 - Razzle Dazzle (S Allard, 15-1) - Needs fast fractions to be a factor.
Selections: 2-1-6-7-3

13th Pace - $245,000; Lady Liberty - FFA Mares
1 - Laughtandbehappy (D Miller, 5-1) - Just missed against Dreamfair Eternal.  Favorable post position.
2 - On The Glass (J Morrill Jr, 8-1) - Just don't see.
3 - Cannae Cammie (D Dube, 15-1) - Been away; must prove herself first.
4 - Ticket To Rock (J Jamieson, 15-1) - Fringe player.
5 - Chancey Lady (G Brennan, 6-1) - Out of it last start.
6 - Dreamfair Eternal (B Sears, 2-1) - The one to beat is beatable. 
7 - Anndrovette (T Tetrick, 5-2) - Win streak came to an end last week.  Must consider.
8 - Showerthemoney (R Pierce, 15-1) -Was sick last start.  Must show more.
9 - Rock N Soul (Y Gingras, 15-1) - Not off recent starts.
Selections: 1-6-7-4

14th Pace - $102,750; Oliver Wendell Holmes - 3yo Colts and Geldings (2nd Division)
5 - Big Bad John (D Miller, 3-1)
1 - High Noon (R Pierce, 4-1)
7 - Mystic Desire (T Tetrick, 12-1)
2 - Lookinforadventure (Y Gingras, 5-1)

15th Pace - $22,000; NW $17,500 Last 5 Starts
  7 - Veal Marsala (S Allard, 3-1)
  2 - Buckeye In Charge (D Miller, 15-1)
10 - Mccedes (J Morrill Jr, 8-1) 
  9 - Southern Sport (T Tetrick, 5-1)

Standardbred Canada has a great story regarding the first Hambletonian at the Meadowlands thirty years ago.  I recommend you view the article.  It includes a video of the final heat of that year's Hambletonian.

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