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Saturday, October 22, 2011

Saturday Breeders Crown Analysis

The Breeders Crown Eliminations continue on Saturday evening at Woodbine Racetrack and as we discussed yesterday, I am going to provide my analysis for the eliminations being held.  As we know by now+, the appeal by Buck I St Pat's connections was denied and considered frivolous as the connections are being assessed a fine for the expense involved with the hearing.  Since Buck I St Pat did not get in, all eleven horses automatically advance to the Breeders Crown Final for Open Mares.

Without further ado, here is my analysis of the remaining eliminations:

1st Trot - $25,407; Breeders Crown Elimination - 3yo Fillies - At the start of this year, you would have thought Crys Dream had this race locked up.  Ever since the drug positive came up in Ontario, Crys Dream has become mortal.  Yes, I know class tends to come alive in these races, but I will pass on her here.  #1 Bold and Fresh lost to Cedar Grove in the KY Filly Oaks, but she returned to race once more at Lexington to win in that stakes, where as Cedar Grove broke stride.  I have to think Bold and Fresh has the advantage.  #4 Cedar Dove won the Futurity Oaks but bombed in her last start; being it was her first break, we will give her the benefit of the doubt and line up an easy exacta.  #6 Lady Andover has been on a tear, winning the Buckette at Lexington.  She did finish third at Lexington, but she may step up here.  #8 Jezzy has been a monster of the NYSS but has failed against open company; the 1:58.3 at Stga may not look big but when that track gets wet it slows down big time; maybe worth a chance to spike up the trifecta.
  
2nd Trot - $25,407; Breeders Crown Elimination - 3yo C&G - #3 Chapter Seven is my longshot play in this race.  He was lackluster in the Canadian Trotting Derby but he romped in his Red Mile Start.  At 8-1, how do you go past him?  #6 Dejarmbro has been the second best horse in this division after Manofmanymissions; with Manofmanymissions not in here, it seems to be a pretty easy effort for Dejarmbro.  #7 Daylon Magician has been quietly racking up the victories this year winning 11 out of 14; at even money offers little value.

3rd Trot - $25,407; Breeders Crown Elimination - 3yo C&G - #1 Broad Bahn is the class of this race and figures to win.  #8 Big Rigs was the winner of a stakes races at The Red Mile and raced well in KY Futurity; expect a better effort.  #2 Manofmanymissions has been the hot horse of late.  KY Futurity winner is his own worse enemy.  If he stays flat he is gold, if he jumps, it's over.  #4 Can Anyone Explain may be primed for a big effort and needs to be included in exotics. 

4th Trot - $25,407; Breeders Crown Elimination - 3yo Fillies -  Another longshot play.  #7 E L Glamour is a lightly raced trotter out of the Rekila stable.  Winner of 3 of 5 gets Moiseyev who has had a resurgent year of sorts in the sulky.  #2 Iron Lady won last race and is logical favorite in this race.  #1 Hey Mister has been racing well and worth consideration in your triples.

6th Pace - $40,652; Breeders Crown Eliminations - Open Mares - #1 Western Silk has been unstoppable at YR.  Rreturns to Mohawk where she shows a win.  May find the shorter distance favorable.  #8 Dreamfair Eternal  has been somewhat disappointing but has class going her way.  #2 Chancey Lady just missed in the Allerage.  #3 On The Glass won the Allerage and at 12-1 is an attractive play.

7th Pace - $25,407; Breeders Crown Elimination -3yo Fillies - #1 Idyllic has been sinking me this year; will stick with till the end.  #3 Drop The Ball seems to have rounded into form.  #7 Swinging Beauty has been coming home in :26 and change final quarters; just needs to be close to be there at the end.

9th Pace - $25,407; Breeders Crown Elimination - 3yo Fillies - To the surprise of many, See You At Peelers was entered and is listed at 5-2.  Takter indicates she is not at 100% and her goal is to advance to qualify for the final.  #1 Krispy Apple has been chasing SYAP a good part of the season.  If she is going to beat the champion, it is this week.  #2 See You At Peelers may not be 100%, but there is not much else to beat here; may be strong enough to grab second.  #3 Tea Party Princess shows good lines on the NYSS including a second place finish to SYAP.  If looking for a price, move Tea Party Princess up one position.

10th Pace - $25,407; Breeders Crown Elimination - 3yo C&G - Wide open race.  #8 Roll With Joe has the best credentials but is saddled with the worst posts.  #7 Alscae Hanover appears to be second best.  #5 Powerful Mist smoked them in a qualifier at Harrington Raceway.  Has shown competitive lines against the top ones.  Could be an upset play.

11th Pace - $25,407; Breeders Crown Elimination - 3yo C&G - #3 Hugadragon pulls off two 1:50 miles at Lexington.  While not the best horse; has never been better.  #5 Betterthancheddar #7 Big Bad John is the horse to beat but gets a bad post.  May win it all, but will take my chances.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I guess all this proves is that you aren't much of a handicapper.

1st- Jezzy, when right, would eats these up and spit them out. Unfortunately, she hasn't been right for a while.

2nd- You really expected Chapter Seven to be 8-1? What a joke!

3rd- Broad Bahn is the class? Because he won the Hambo under perfect circumstances, cutting an easy mile on a day when Chapter Seven & Manwithmanymissions weren't right? Please.
4th- El Glamour? WTF?
6th- Nice- you didn't even give a mention to the favorite, Anndrovette, who crushed.
7th- No big problem, except Idyllic looked awful at the Red Mile.
9th- You stick with Idyllic but don't give a mention to Rocklamation, who nearly beat Idyllic in the Jugette after changing equipment following heat one. Jeez!
10th- You had this one right. Miller figured not to leave, considering it would take a major miracle for Big Bad John not to make the final; that nearly happened as the outer flow got wiped out on the final turn, yet BBJ closed stoutly despite the interference.

Pacingguy said...

It goes to show I will post comments as long as I am respectful. I was horrible last night, plain and simple.

Being I am writing this a day or two ahead of time, I have to go with the morning line printed.

EL Glamour? What Riina Rekila does with horses is amazing, check her UTR out. I have cashed on her at over 50-1 in the past. I never discount her horses.

That being said, I am more than willing to let you handicap the BC finals next week and post them here. The only thing is if you want to, you need to provide your name. This way you get the credit if you smoke them, but get to take the rasberries if you stink to the high heavens like I did this week.

Pacingguy said...

Looking back at my last two nights and all was not that bad. Granted, you didn't get rich playing my selections, but not totally disasterous as you would suggest.

For example, Friday night I had four out five five winners. Granted no huge payoffs but one exacta was selected.

Saturday was not a great night. In the first race, my horse jumped off stride but my second choice won. In the second race, I had the winner and the trifecta in a box. The third race also had a winner. The fourth-tenth races (the elims) I bombed with my first choice but in the eleventh race I had an exacta box with the top two choices.

As for my pick with Idyllic, I mentioned this horse has been killing me and I was going to stick with so people were forwarned. My EL Glamour was purely playing the Reklia angle which unfortunately bombed. I would grade me a C for my efforts.

Something I have mentioned in the past and probably should mentione again is my picks are often made two or three days ahead of the actual race. I have mentioned in the past that these are based on morning line odds and come race time I may change my picks to take advantage of better value propositions.

Also, it should be noted I am not a handicapper extrodinaire as if I was two things would happen; I would not publish my selections or I would make a career or selling my selections.

My goal is to provide people with my selections, to give them something to think about and consider as they are doing their own handicapping; a different view as it were. If you are just betting my picks straight I would suggest not playing the horses as you need to ultimately make your own decisions. If you are just following anyone's selections blindly you have no business wagering.