Here is my early review of the Meadowlands Pace card, one of the best racing cards the Meadowlands has offered, short of Hambletonian Day. In addition to the Meadowlands Pace, you have the four NJSS championships for 2yos; the William R. Haughton Memorial Pace, featuring one of the deepest FFA ranks in many years; the Mistletoe Shalee for 3yo fillies; the Del Miller and Stanley Dancer memorials for 3yo trotting fillies and colts. If you make it to the track only one night this year, this is the night to attend.The Meadowlands has a website dedicated to the Meadowlands Pace and it may be accessed here.
Since this is my early review, my selections have been made without knowledge of the morning line and any driver changes which will be made. You could argue this is my starting line for each race; adjusting afterwards for driver changes and odds. In some ways, this is my 'who should win list' off their past performance lines but successful wagering looks not only at those who should win but offer value.
And no, for those you who have looked ahead, I have not picked Captaintreacherous to win. In reality, he most likely will win the race, but remember Somebeachsomewhere was a lock in the Pace as well. If lightning strikes and my selection wins, while I would like to claim great handicapping, odds are it will turn out to be dumb luck (hey, you can always use some of that in this game).
To review the guaranteed pools for Meadowlands Pace night, the $.50 Pick 5 (Races 1-5) has a $20,000 guaranteed pool; Early Pick 4 (Races 3-6) has a $30,000 guaranteed pool; Late Pick 4 (Races 7-10) features a $100,000 guaranteed pool.
Anyway, I hope these selections assist you in your handicapping.
1st Pace - $30,000; A-1/FFA Handicap Horses and Geldings
2 - Dynamic Youth (POE)
4 - Hurrikane Kingcole
3 - Our Lucky Chip
2nd Trot - $150,000; NJSS 2yo Fillies
7 - Dancin For Money
2 - Pacific Winds K
1 - My Inspiration
3td Trot - $150,000; NJSS 2yo Colts and Geldings
2 - Hill I Am
6 - Quickwit
7 - Southwind Spirit
4th Pace - $150,000; NJSS 2yo Colts and Geldings
2 - Western Vintag
1 - Beat The Drum
8 - Sweet Rock
6 - In The Clear
5th Trot - $265,500; Del Miller Memorial 3yo Fillies
1 - Bee A Magician
3 - Ma Chere Hall
9 - Cupcake
2 - Time To Kill
6th Pace - $150,000; NJSS 2yo Fillies
1 - Ideal Hellen
3 - My LadyDay
9 Fiyonce
6 - Cut A Deal
7th Pace - $16,000; B-2/B-1 Handicap Horses and Geldings
2 - Breakin The Law
7 - Emeritus Maximus
4 - All Speed Hanover
1 - Dremzzzz R For U
8th Trot - $294,000; Stanley Dancer Memorial (3yo Open)
9 - Royalty For Life
1 - Spider Blue Chip
10 - Corky
4- Fico
9th Pace - $471,800; William R Haughton Memorial (FFA)
2 - Warrawee Needy
5 - Golden Receiver
6 - Foiled Again
3 - Sweet Lou
10th Pace - $635,750; Meadowlands Pace (3yo Open)
1 - Odds On Equuleus
2 - Sunshine Beach
4 - Twilight Bonfire
9 - Wake Up Peter
11th Pace - $184,250; Mistletoe Shalee (3yo Fillies)
1 - Novascotia Hanover
2 - I Luv The Nitelife
3 - Shebestingin
4 - Jerseylicious
12th Pace - $10,000; C-1 Horses and Geldings
4 - Mighty Young Joe
7 - Redneck Outlaw
3 - Long Live Rock
2 - Prestissimo
13th Pace - $17,500; 3 and 4yos N/W 3 Ext PM Races or $32,500 Lifetime
9 - Only The Lonely
8 - Sir Richard Z Tam
6 - Lets Rock Together
4 - Troon
14th Pace - $12,500; 3 and 4 yos N/W 2 Ext PM Races or $22,000 Lifetime
9 - Shark Treasure
6 - Someplace Special
8 - Talking Blues
7 - World Cup Cullen
6 comments:
I'd revisit your Haughton Memorial picks if I were you. Your top 3 picks all came hit the board coming from the fastest elim which was in WR equalling time. Their tanks are half empty going into the final. You've been warned my friend.
Blaine, there is a good chance you are correct and I would advise everyone to consider Blaine's observations.
Unfortunately, I find sticking with my original picks preserves sanity. At least I won't be kicking my butt afterwards saying why did I change my picks if it comes in. That being said, if they are over-bet, my picks will change.
Merely an observation from watching how elims factor in to finals. I remember the 2007 Haughton when Lis Mara jogged in the elim in :47 and a piece. Everybody thought the final was an afterthought. He finished 4th behind Mister Big in :48 and change. They're not machines. This is not to say they can't run back to the elim race, but it won't be easy/likely.
Blaine -- of course, you MAY be right about this week's race, but using your theory, horses who raced hard in an elimination heat for a race like The Jug would surely be automatic tosses in another race coming up just an hour or two later. But the truth is that exact OPPOSITE generally happens! Horses who put in huge miles in a first heat USUALLY are the ones to beat in the final. Those easy-trip runner-ups might seem "fresher", but generally remain runner-ups in the final as well. Again, this is NOT a prediction for this week, but more of a general observation about standardbred resilience, and their ability to maintain peak form for weeks, if not MANY weeks.
Big difference between racing one week apart on a one-mile oval and racing 2 hours apart on a 1/2 mile oval. Additionally, post position is EVERYTHING on the 1/2 mile Delaware County Fairgrounds and heat winners are GUARANTEED inside post. We'll see come Saturday nite.
Blaine -- the same held true for heat racing on ALL sized tracks, and whether there was an open draw or not. Like I said, regardless of Saturday's results, it has been long established that harness horses simply don't "bounce" like thoroughbreds, and racing super DESPITE being used hard is almost always a positive, and not a negative. Good luck on Saturday!
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