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Friday, May 3, 2013

The Boys Take Center Stage in New Jersey

With the first Saturday in May it can only be one thing, the Stakes Season kicks off in earnest, in particular the trotting ranks with the Dexter Cup at Freehold Raceway in the afternoon and the initial Meadowlands Maturity at the Meadowlands in the evening.  In addition to the trotters on display, we have a field of seven three year old pacers competing in the John Simpson Memorial at the Big M.

As with the Lady Suffolk, here is my review of the fields for all three races..

Saturday, May 4, 2013

9th Fhld - Trot; $139,600 - The Dexter Cup - 3yo colts and geldings
1 - King Muscles (McCarthy, 6-1) - Starting off slow this year but winner of the Harold Dancer at Freehold last year and being competitive in the NJSS says this horse has promise.  It should be noted he won his last race at Freehold.  At 6-1, he is an attractive wager.

2 - Il Pizzailo (Schnittker, 8-1) -Won a late closing leg at Vernon last week but has yet to show the ability to go against the better stock.  While Schnittker has traditionally has a good showing in the Dexter Cup, it doesn't look like this will be the year.

3 - Stirling Bullet (Manzi, 10-1) - Understandably dull in his debut he is bound to give a better performance but I still don't think that performance will be good enough.  It should be noted last year Sstirlig Bullet had a way of taking himself out of the race.

4 - Celebrity Maserati (Jackson, 9-2) - Second tier as a two year old who has gone wire to wire in his qualifier and nw1cd race at Pocono.  May very well be up to this field.  Look who starts outside of him.  Certainly one for your exotics.

5 - Celebrity Stimulus (Smith, 7-2) - Completes and uncoupled Celebrity Farms stable entry and it can't help the entry is starting right next to each other. Lone win last year came against lower class at Pocono Downs.  Prepped for this start with two qualifiers, including a victory at the Meadowlands in the AM.  May be able to step up and compete but as far as I am concerned, the weaker half of the stable entry.

6 - Dewey Luvs Britt (Oscarsson, 5-1) - Another one that looks as if he has matured and approved.  Failed in Red Mile late closers badly last year but has raced well since the calendar has turned to 2013.  Won a nw3 at Pompano Park in last start.  Must use in trifectas.

7 - Dontyouforgetit (Gingras, 5-2) - The king of the PASS last year went south for the Breeders Crown series.  Trained back well including back-to-back wins in the morning at Freehold and Meadowlands.  Only question is if willing to accept less than 2-1 from post seven?

Selections: Dontouforgetit is the obvious choice but at less than 2-1, I don't see much value.  If I can get 6-1 on King Muscles, I'll take my chance with a win bet.  Failing that, likely to play 7-6-1 trifecta and will consider a 7-6-1-4 superfecta.

2nd M1 - Pace - $39,615; John Simpson Memorial - 3yo colts and geldings
1 (pp 4) - Johnny Rock (A Miller, 2-1) - Class of the field draws the center post and enters race of three solid qualifiers.  On class alone he should take this race.

1A (pp 7) - Duel In The Sun (Callahan, 2-1) - Seems to be more of a second tier horse.  Finished fifth against Captaintreacherous in the AM last week.

2 (pp 1) - Delaware Hanover (Tetrick, 5-1) - Has come back well this year finish second in nw3 events at Phl5/8.  Should note was a complete flop in Woodrow Wilson last year.

3 (pp 2) - Kenzie's Beach Boy (Pierce, 10-1) - Solid effort in last start at Phil but was nowhere in the Weiss series at PcD5/8.

4 (pp 3) - Johns Polyview (D Miller, 5-2) - Has been racing better this season and was solid in the PASS last year.  Starts inside the morning line favorite.  Not out of this race at all.

5 (pp 5) - Real Rocker (Gingras, 6-1) - Ships east for first time in career.  Hard to gauge so I will want to see a start in person first.

6 (pp 6) - Rocnrolwilneverdie (Campbell, 7-2) - Seems to have improved over the winter and is 4-2-2-0 thus far this year.  Has improved time-wise at Yonkers over earlier victory at the Meadowlands.  If looking for value play, this may be the one.

Selections - The obvious 1-4-6 trifecta offers no value so the key is to find the horse to play to win or an exacta.  Safe bet may be 1/4,6 in exacta but if can get value, may be worth to play a 4,6/1,

6th M1 - Trot - $100,000; Meadowlands Maturity - 4yo Open
1 - Guccio (Takter, 5-2) - Has prepped smartly for this race and figures to be the one to beat.  The question is do you take him at the odds he is offered at?

2 - Little Brown Fox (Gingras, 10-1) - Was close all during the late season races but not sure he has progressed over the winter.  Will want to see a race against these.

3 - Googoo Gaagass (Callahan, 6-1) - Last year's feel good story comes into this race off a win in last qualifier.  I don't see him ready at first asking unless something freaky happens.

4 - Solvato (Smedshammer, 15-1) - Winner of mid level conditioned race at Phl5/8 last start.  I don't see him here today.

5 - Harbor Point (Pierce, 9-2) - Already has twelve starts this year with three wins.  Wouldn't surprise me but I don't see him better than minor spoils.

6 - Modern Family (Tetrick, 4-1) - Winner of 7 for 10 this year; trying toughest company of the campaign but deserves a shot against these.  Could be dangerous off a trip.

7 - Magic Tonight (Campbell, 8-1) - Has been racing well against open company but failed miserably last year against his own age group.  We will see now if he has stepped up or just a solid overnighter.

8 - Uncle Peter (D Miller, 9-2) - One of last year's marquee horses returns off of out of state preps.  Should note he finished behind Guccio in Matron elim and final last year.  Definite threat.

9 - Another Amaretto (A Miller, 25-1) -  Would be a major shocker if he comes in.  Shocker as in 1969 Mets.

10 - My MVP (Lachance, 15-1) - Will be a major contender this season but draws the worst of it in seasonal debut.  At best, gets involved in the Trifectas and Superfectas. 

Selections:  Hard to go by Guccio for the win, but will likely settle on a  1-6 Exacta Box  

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