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Thursday, November 27, 2014

TVG FFA Analysis

First of all, a Happy Thanksgiving to my American friends who are celebrating Thanksgiving today. May you have a great holiday.  If your significant other is hitting the malls to get a head start on Black Friday and you have managed to escape, you are limited to racing action up north in Canada where Flamboro Down, Rideau Carleton, and Woodbine Racetrack.

We will keep today's column short.  It is interesting to note Saturday evening's opening  race at the Meadowlands features a field of $12,500 claimers.  Maybe horsemen have taken the weekend off, but with Pocono Downs having closed for the season, you wouldn't think they would have a problem getting their typical bottom dwellers.  Hopefully, things will pick up.

With all do respect to Dover Down (Progress Stake) and Northfield Park (Cleveland Classic), the TVG FFA Finals Saturday night for all practical purposes ends the stakes season for 2014.  Here is my analysis of those two races.

7th Pace - $500,000; TVG FFA(Friday)
1  Bettor's Edge - Never had chance in last.  If goes back to prior two races, has a chance at a price.
2  Modern Legend - Has a chance in this race for a share.
3  Sweet Lou - Finished 2nd last two starts.  Moves inside of those winners.  Consider.
4  Clear Vision - Will need a fast pace to come flying late.  Not sure speed duel will develop.
5  Thinking Out Loud - Breeders Crown Champ will move late in the race.  Will they set a tiring pace?
6  State Treasurer - Another closer.  Not sure the pace will work his way.
7  Foiled Again - Age catching up.  Needs a trip; not sure it will develop here.
8  Warrawee Needy - Clearly not the horse he was.  Seems over matched.
Selections: 3-5-4

10th Pace - $500,000; TVG FFA (Saturday)
1  Creatine - Second start back and rail may make him a factor here.
2  Wishing Stone - Expect him to race up front.  Moves inside.  Consider if favorable odds.
3  Bee A Magician - Mare takes on the boys.  Should give a good account of herself.
4  DW's NY Yank - Returns to traditional distance.  Still seems in over his head.
5  Sebastian K S - Been prepped for this race.  Can't discount.  Consider if odds are worth a shot.
6  Market Share - Has been beating himself often.  Needs a trip to be a factor.
7  Intimidate - Seems to be over his head.
8  Flanagan Memory - Has managed to stay with these.  Not good enough to get a win though.
9  Arch Madness - Another oldster whose best races are in the past.  Will toss.
10 Maven - Mare rewarded with worst post.  Still worth considering.  Wouldn't shock.
AE Your So Vain - Also eligible would do best staying in barn.  Easy one to pass on.
Selections: 2-1-5-10

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