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Saturday, August 31, 2013

Cane Pace and Shady Daisy Review

If it is Labor Day, it is Cane Pace Day in the Southern Tier.  In addition to the Cane Pace and Shady Daisy,  there is the final legs of the 7th Annual Drivers Championship which has local driver Jimmy Marohn, Jr. leading the others in the competition.  The second, third, sixth, seventh, and ninth races are being used for the championship.

As for the Cane Pace, it looks to be a two horse race with Captaintreacherous and Vegas Vacation being the two horses to watch with the others racing for scraps.  Once again due to New York regulations, there are two coupled entries due to common ownership so instead of eight wagering interests, there are only six though quite honestly, I am not sure anything would make this a good wagering event.  Bridge jumpers take note, there is no show wagering on the Cane.  To me, it is more of a race to watch than it is to bet.

The Shady Daisy looks to be the better wagering event with six horses you can make a case for in winning this race as well as a couple of long shots with watching to see if their odds stay high enough to pull the trigger.  There is just enough uncertainty about a couple here which should keep the odds from plummeting too low.

Since it is Ladies first, let's take a look at the Shady Daisy which is the fifth race on the card:

  1. Shebestingin (Sears, 8-5) - Unfortunate break in the Valley Forge at the start.  Won the Empire Breeders Classic at Tioga Downs in 1:49.3. A legitimate threat to take it all.
  2. Scandalous Hanover (Miller, 3-1) - Beat older at Harrah's in last, always a good sign. Figure she will try to wire the field with Shebestingin right behind her.  Question if she can hold the top choice off.
  3. Ms Caila J Fra (Allard, 6-1) - One I have followed all year long but has been away from the races for a month.  Will she be tight enough?  We'll see.
  4. The Last Laugh (Buter, 20-1) - Has been racing in the top ranks against aged mares at the Spa with mixed results drawing the outside posts.  Wouldn't leave out of exotics.  If looking for a long shot shocker, this one could be the one.
  5. Nikki Beach (Pierce, 9-2) - Winner of first consolation of Valley Forge and Adioo Volo.  Been close in the top races thus far.  Legitimate chance if runs into no traffic.
  6. UF Dragon's Queen (Callahan, 15-1) - Been racing primarily with lower company though has never been better.  Would look at her as a long shot play if the odds were right.
  7. Parlee Beach (Tetrick, 20-1) - Finally, one to easily toss. 
  8. Live Entertainment (Gingras, 10-1) - Seems to be in a little deep and with this post, it should be a long day for her.  I'll pass.
The Play: A wide open affair, but in this competitive field I would look for Shebestingin to race in the pocket and make a move in the stretch.  Scandalous Hanover will try to hold on for second with Ms Cailar J Fra rushing at the end along with UF Dragon's Queen.  For a long shot play, I will take UF Dragon's Queen at 10-1 or better and even look at the Last Laugh at 20-1 or higher, especially if UF Dragon's Queen falls below double digits.

 Now let's take a look at the Cane Pace (Race 10) in post position order:
  1. (3) Someplace Special (Callahan, 12-1) - Silva trainee is stepping up here.  Unlikely to land a share.
  2. (1) Captaintreacherous (Tetrick, 8-5) -  Nailed in last off of a layoff.  Should be 100% today and figures likely to start a new streak today.  Doubt you will get 8-5.
  3. (1A) Wake Up Peter (Pierce, 8-5) - Winless thus far this year.  A nice second stringer but wouldn't touch if he raced uncoupled.
  4. (2) Vegas Vacation (Sears, 5-2) - Could be the value play.  Winner here in EBC and was second in Adios which was won by the conqueror of the Captain.  Definite threat.
  5. (4) Word Power (Jamieson, 10-1) - A nice horse but doesn't figure here. 
  6. (5) Twihlight Bonfire (Campbell, 3-1) -  Odds puzzle me.  Nice horse but dependent on getting nice trip.  May be to far back to get involved at the end.  If higher than 5-1 may take another look.
  7. (6) Varadero Hanover (Gingras, 5-1) - Picks up a positive driver change but don't see from post seven.  Pass.
  8. (2A) Lucan Hanover (Miller, 5-2) - Took a break after NJ Classic and been away a month after running a four race win streak.  Wouldn't play alone from post eight but is a nice addition to Vegas Vacation as an entry.
The Play: The race really figures to come out to a Capataintreacherous-Vegas Vacation Exacta barring someone going Kamakazie, yet I will try to break those two apart.  I would play a 1,2/5,6/1,2  Trifecta hoping to get a little value.  As for a long shot play, I don't see anyone worth taking a stab at.

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