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Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Figuring Out How the Race Will be Run or Not

Don't you love those hard earned first quarters?  They make for such exciting races and such was the case yesterday in the Cane Pace contested at Tioga Downs as Dynamic Youth took advantage of A Rocknroll Dance getting cooked in a fast paced mile to win the Cane in 1:48.4.  Due to the fast first quarter and effort required to get to the lead before the half, A Rocknroll Dance ran out of steam in the stretch, allowing Dynamic Youth to score the upset victory..

Of course, when a race doesn't go the way you see it being run, your handicapping goes out the window like the drivers' preconceived driving strategy. As a result, it often results in some big prices. Unfortunately, or fortunately depending on your perspective Dynamic Youth was coupled in the wagering with A Rocknroll Dance.

As noted by some people, wouldn't it have been great if Dynamic Youth was uncoupled from A Rocknroll Dance?  No doubt supporters of Dynamic Reward would have been collecting a sizable dividend for their investment but one must ask how many of Dynamic Reward's supporters would have wagered on him without having the 'security' of having A Rocknroll Dance as an entrymate?  They also know they were going to get 2-5 because of being in the entry.  Though it would be more valid if the horses were trained by the same trainer, how many people may have thought  A Rocknroll Dance was sacrificed so the owner could make a score wagering if they raced uncoupled?   

As we approach the Little Brown Jug, just two weeks away, it reminds you  no horse is unbeatable and if you had A Rocknroll Dance in the first Little Brown Jug future wager, you may be feeling a little less confident, especially at the 7-5 odds you received.  After all, while you handicap based on past performances, it is what happens on the track which matters.  You just never know what may happen.

Meanwhile at Mohawk Racetrack, American Jewel raced the way it was expected at the start of the season in winning the Simcoe in a stakes-record 1:49.4, with the race going in a less eventfull manner.  Being able to settle in fourth early and watching the front trio exert themselves while American Jewel bided her time before making a move to ensure she didn't get locked in.  Once that happened it was all over.

These two races show you the exhiliration of what happens when a race goes the way you want and the sinking feeling you get when a race goes 'wrong'.  This is what makes this game great.

It's on to Delaware, as stakes season starts building to its climax in the Breeders Crown.  Harness racing becomes really fun now.

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