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Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Thursday Cal Expo Pick 4

The early Pick 4 (15%) at Cal Expo on Thursday would appear to be an easy play.which means either I am dead wrong or don't expect it to pay thousands of dollars.  In the second race, there is no need to go beyond #5 Claudius Augustus who has a three race win streak this year.  After a month off he returned to victory in a 1:58.1 qualifier which indicates he should be ready for a top effort.  In the third race, my top pick is #6 Frankly Scarlet who is coming off a win in similar company last week.  I also look for #1 Intrepid Kate to  be competitive from the rail finishing 2nd last week, behind the top choice..  Lastly, I would use #5 Persuade Me in the combinations as he finished third in the same race as the top two.  In the fourth race, it looks like another single with #7 Sun On The Rocks who, while a maiden ships in from Pocono Downs. If you want to go a little deeper, consider #2 Diamond Player who has raced horribly in the Sires Stakes but has raced well against fellow maidens.  In the fifth race finale of the early Pick 4, #1 Swing Vote broke her maiden but raced poorly in the Sires Stakes.  She returns to a nw1(FM2) level and figures to be meeting easier.The second pick is #4 Poorlittlerichgirl who finished third in the class last time out. 

Early Pick 4 Selections:5/1,5,6/7/1,4 ($6) or 5/1,5,6/2,7/1,4 ($12)

The late Pick 4 (15% - $10,000 Guaranteed) - As one would expect, the late Pick 4 appears to be much more difficult.  In the sixth race, I see up to five of the eight horses to be competitive, but I will keep the ticket more affordable by looking at #2 Ailene's Prince who won two straight but is moving up from $2500 Group 3 claimers to Group 1.  #3 Bit Of Lavec finished second in this same class.  #7 Franky Provolone won in this class but move out to post seven which has not been a problem for him.  I am not including on my ticket, but fear #4 Hope Tu Place which has been racing very steady in this class.  #8 Goli Tie drops down from conditioned races into the claiming ranks.  Her last race was awful but she may wake up with the drop into claiming races.  In the seventh race, #2 Moximum has been racing horrible but has been drawing the worst of post, but back on March 31, she did win a in this class.  A return to this class and an inside post may be the ticket but at 6-5 is not that appetizing.  Looking for a price, #5 Moonglow Hall finished second last week in this class and is an attractive 6-1.  You can't ignore #7 Dragon's Breath who has raced well in this class and picks up Rick Plano for the driving assignment.  The eighth race brings us a single as it appears #1 Mr Friendly looks like he can take this race as he drops down off his first race back.  In the ninth race last leg of the Pick 4, #9 Dancing Barry woke up in his first start for the new barn and finished third in a brisk pace. #4 Hi Fidelity is another one that bombed big time in the Sires Stakes but did win in an optional $4,000 claiming race. She does step up to a $6000 conditioned claiming race so you may get some value.  Finally, I close out this Pick 4 with #5 Lust who won in her second lifetime start. 

Late Pick 4 Selections:  2,3,7/2,5,7/1/4,5,9  ($27)

For those who have not had a chance, you can see the premier episode of the Canadian Show Unharnessed - Behind the Scenes.  The show is being broadcast in Canada and will be availaable over the Internet.  Even though the content is Canadian-oriented, it would be great if the show could find a home on an American Cable Network or even TVG.


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