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Friday, February 4, 2011

A New Proposition Wager?

I always read Stan Bergstein's Experimental Ratings, but after that I ignore it. Sure it is fun to read it; maybe a breeder would be interested in it to possibly get an early syndication deal; trainers may want to see someone's opinion as to what they have to go against, but as a bettor it is meaningless.  It's what happens on the track that matters.

I know who the top 2yo pacers and trotters were last year, but it is what they do on the track this year which matters. How many 2yos don't come back as good as they were last year or get injured? How many 2yos which were not the cream of the crop last year mature and step it up this year? How many unraced 2yos show up and become monsters on the track? To the bettor these statistics are like hot stove talk is in baseball; fun to talk about it but otherwise meaningless.

Now, what may be interesting is if they had proposition racing on who will be the fastest 3yo pacers and trotters. Come up with the perceived top nineteen or twenty horses and possibly have a field horse for all other 3yos and have wagering on who will be the fastest 3yo. Then, it may be interesting.  Almost certainly the fastest miles of the year will occur during prime time May-October.  Around mid-April, pick the top nineteen anticipated horses by a panel and publish their career past performances; you will see last year's two year old lines if they raced; the early three year olds will have race lines and more than likely the unraced two year olds will have some qualifiers under their belt by then getting ready to make their debuts.  Then offer wagering (only one pool each for pacers and trotters) and let the public make a wager.    The winner will be determined by the 3yo pacer and trotter that has the fastest race mile by the time the Breeders Cup is concluded.

Too easy to pick?  Not really, the best horse by the number of wins and money won may not be the fastest horse of  the year.  Some second tier horse may just catch the right conditions, a hot humid day racing where everything goes right for him/her in a race where it doesn't for the top horses in the division. 

Not only will this allow people to wager, but it will keep the wagering public interested in racing for the whole season if not only to follow the standing of their selection all year, but it may induce to keep the casual gambler engaged and wagering when their horse is racing during the season.

It is a wager worth exploring.

1 comment:

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