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Thursday, September 17, 2009

Weekend Report

There is plenty of exciting racing this weekend so here are my picks for the Canadian Trotting Classic at Mohawk Racetrack Saturday night and the Three Diamonds and Governor's Cup at Chester Downs on Sunday.

Canadian Trotting Classic
2 - Southern Rocketop (12-1)
4 - Muscle Hill (1-5)
3 - Explosive Matter (15-1)
1 - Duded Up (40-1)

No, I have not gone mad. While I think Muscle Hill win, for betting purposes I am looking for an upset with Southern Rocketop on top as there is no value with Muscle Hill. Yes, Muscle Hill has only been doing what was necessary and he should be able to do more but with a 1-5 morning line, I'll take my chances with Southern Rocketop. When they raced in the American National, Southern Rocketop was not right when he finished a well beaten third. Since then, he finished second to Muscle Hill in the World Trotting Derby and in last week's eliminations he won convincingly; he is a legitimate contender in this division. As they say, if you race long enough you will get beat. At 12-1, I'll look for the upset with Southern Rocketop. For second, I will go with the champion Muscle Hill. Explosive Matter has been sick, before illness was legitimate threat to Muscle Hill. Consider if long shot. Duded Up may be able to get in to juice up the trifecta.

The Three Diamonds
3 - Fancy Filly (9-5)
2 - Native Doll (6-1)
7 - Western Mooonlight (8-1)
1A - Higher and Higher (2-1)

Fancy Filly is the horse to beat. With only one defeat this year out of eight starts, she has stamped herself as one of the top 2yo pacing filles. Native Doll finished third in her elimination; with George Brennan, she is eligible to improve. Western Moonlight finished 2nd to Fancy Filly in their elimination, that coming off a three week break. Would be my second pick except for the post assignment. Higher and Higher has been making the most of her late start. Won her elimination convincingly. Consider in your exotic picks.

The Governor's Cup
2 - Nova Artist (15-1)
1 - Malicious (2-1)
4 - One More Laugh (4-1)
3 - Rock N Roll Heaven (9-5)

Nova Artist finished second to Malicious when assigned post seven in the eliminations; the move inside to post two can only help. Is my selection provided the odds are decent. Malicious beat the top choice in last race and is eight for nine; expect him to be an underlay. One More Laugh is a talented gelding who is six for seven thus far in brief career. With any trip and a fast pace he can be there. Rock N Roll Heaven won his elimination but finished second behind second choice at Mohawk. Consider for exotics including superfecta.

Enjoy the racing and good luck.


Degenerate Blogger said...

Southern Rocketop.....please! Not in this lifetime. That was the first time in Muscle Hill career he had raced four weeks in a row and he looks like he is getting stronger. The only way he loses here on out is if Brian makes a mistake, the horse is more than willing. How more impressive can MH be? Brian never moved a muscle, pun intended, down the stretch.

Better luck with your other picks Pacingguy, we will be watching! I give you credit for trying.

Pacingguy said...

Well, if you recall, I had said Muscle Hill will most likely win. But being primarily a win player, would I bet Muscle Hill at 1-5? Nope, a sub $10 exacta doesn't interest me. If I play at all, I am going to bet very little on a logical long shot to come in should the highly unlikely happen (ala CR Kay Suzie in the Hambo eliminations).

Turns out at 8-1, I passed on Southern Rocketop. Explosive Matter would have been a logical second choice, but after his recent illness, I passed playing him. I just watched.

Degenerate Blogger said...

Correct Pacingguy, you did, but you picked SR for a "live" longshot to beat him. I expect you to give us a "live" exacta next time with you know who on