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Friday, August 7, 2015

Guest Hambletonian Day Card Analysis

Since Pacingguy asked for some help with his blog, I'm back again to try to make some sense of another great Hambo card.  My last Pick 3 experiment had it's moments but in the end, a wild night of multiple longshots did me in early in the card.  Hopefully this Saturday, things won't get too out of control....fingers crossed.

 As a result, I've decided to go in an easier route by naming my "horse to beat" (or htb) and my "price special" (or ps) in each race.  Maybe a good longshot or two will help your day be successful...I hope so.

Race 1:  What a great/tough race to open the card with.  My htb is going to be Odds On Equuleus, yes, I know Andy Miller is driving (this might be his only chance to win a race on Hambo day) but, a change in tactics probably cost him the race last week.  Knowing that speed usually carries really well on Hambo day, I'm willing to give him another shot.  My ps has to be Capozzo.  His last race at the M was stellar beating a lesser group.  Not only did he get a new lifetime mark, he showed to me some class that had been missing in the past.

Race 2:  You know how temperamental young trotters can be so I find myself going against my better judgement by saying Broadway Donna is the horse to beat.  Her elimination was freaky good.  Not only did she look great, her breeding has superstar written all over it.  My ps is as easy as naming the horse above the horse to beat, watch out for Sunset Glider.  Blocked with a ton, Yannick had no choice but to sit chilly in the stretch, looking for a seam that never appeared.  No doubt, he is looking forward to getting a better trip Saturday.

Race 3:  I have to take a flyer htb this race, Sandbetweenurtoes.  I think the added distance won't hurt.  Sandy got a curious steer by Brett, by not going forward at the start, her best asset, speed, was compromised.  I'm hoping Brett gets more involve early without getting shuffled out of the race.  Talk about bad luck, poor Venus Delight has been snake bitten by either a bad post or a bad DQ in the last few races I've seen her race.  Will Jason get a better trip this time than his previous try here?  Who knows, I know it can't be much worse.

Race 4:  Not sure where to go in this race since the top 3 last week were separated by a neck.  Since the horse I played last week, Doo Wop Hanover, got his normal first over try and just missed, I have to go back.  Expect a lot of movement and a great race.  There's new kid on the block this race and that's who I'm using as my ps, Somewhere In L A.  The Meadows shipper was razor sharp in a race the winner was on a speed mission and almost got caught by the pocket sitting Somewhere.  Check out the last half, 54.2, nothing shabby there.

Race 5:  Kudos to the connections of the Elitloppet winner for bringing Magic Tonight over to race.  Is he ready to beat our best?  Impossible to say.  Can he beat these on his best?  Absolutely, question is, how cranked is he?  I expect a big effort regardless.  I'm taking Intimidate as my ps, his acclimating mile was perfect, just the trip he likes.  Coming off cover and sprinting home.  Let's hope he's much tighter.

Race 6:  Of course, the race revolves around Bee A Magician.  She beat the boys last time here so why not beat the ladies?  Another foreign import adds to the equation but the post won't help.  I'm taking Shake It Cerry for a price.  Yes, the post sucks but Shake It hasn't had a great trip in quite some time.  Being in the second tier might be a benefit since she won't be able to use her speed once the gate closes. 

Race 7:  Here's a shocker, Southwind Frank is only 8-5 on the morning line.  I thought 4-5 might be closer to his odds but if you can get 8-5, take it.  His only blemish was with Kakaley driving so we toss that race out.  Yannick is staring at the 2yo trotting double.  The other Southwind is the ps.  I surely don't have a lot on confidence in this one but he didn't have some traffic issues in his elim.  Not sure he can overcome his post but he will be a large price.

Race 8:  Oh boy, this should be interesting.  Both Takter horses have to leave for position so who knows how that's going to work out (remember Father Patrick)?  I'm kind of surprised Jimmy didn't stick with The Bank although I'm a fan of both horses.  Since Jimmy gave up his drive on The Bank, that's who I'm going to take.  The Bank should get the best trip of the three...maybe?  Can The Bank also be my ps?  Sure, why not.  Nothing else is jumping off the page.

Race 9:  Speaking of interesting, it's the lady against the boys, in a rare match up.  Is she good enough?  You know Yannick will have her winging early.  It's her race to win or lose for sure.  Want a real flyer?  Cruzado Dela Noche showed real promise at 2 but obviously has issues.  If they have the trotting hobbles measured correctly, the other Cruz could be heard from.

Race 10:  Here's a curious race, half don't belong in a race for 75k but I see why they are entered.  Nobody deserves great praise so I'll say Etruscan Hanover is the horse htb...who?  Duplicate his last race and he's right there.  No reason he can't get a trip from his post.  How about Il Sogno Dream as the ps?  This is definitely an easier group than his last visit.  Here's hoping the outside posts take their toll.

Race 11:  How do you beat Wiggle It?  Only if 3 weeks is too long of a break (laughing).  My ps has to be Dealt A Winner.  His last two will assure a decent price to help the vertical wagers.  The race three back was excellent.

Race 12:  Can you say trouble?  The race sure does look like a speed fest.  I'm not sold on Wild Honey this year so I'll try Lock Down Lindy.  Her last race put her on the map big time.  Can she do it again?  I know Tim will be trying hard for his pal Tony A.  My price special has to be Rules Of The Road.  Although the race two back was against much lesser, the speed was there.  She definitely has to be better than last week.

Race 14:  Has there been a more inconsistent bunch this year than 3yo pacing fillies?  Nobody wants to win two races in a row so why start now.  Using that logic, I'm going with Stacia Hanover as the htb.  Either she's cutting the mile in too quick of fractions or too far back to make an impact late.  Here's hoping for a nice second over trip...please.  My ps is Divine Caroline.  Another horse with big expectations that hasn't quite panned out.  She has her favorite driver back so that might help.

Race 15:  If your still watching, the Townsend Ackerman divisions are always intriguing.  This race winner could boil down to two horses that haven't raced much this year.  One is 20-1 and the other is 4-1.  I think both will get bet heavier than their odds imply.  I'll leave this race up to you...both have a right to improve off the layoffs.

Race 16:  Finally, nothing like a nice 12 horse field to finish the long day with.  Don't forget to save some cash for the mandatory payoff High 5.  Too bad I can't move some drivers around.  Maybe that explains the morning line.  How can a horse that just ran 49 flat be 8-1 on the line?  Yes, he's jumping up in class but he's not in that tough.  I've been a fan of My Name Is Sam since the winter so why change now.  Go Sam is the htb...sort of.  If you want a horse to spice up the High 5, it has to be Scalped.  He left hard from the 9 hole and got shuffled enough to have traffic issues in the stretch.  The added distance and jump in class might be too much but I see what I saw.

Good luck with all your wagers.  Hopefully Pacingguy will be able to make it there this year, I wish I could join him.

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