Molson Pace Card Analysis

Instead of Friday night spotlight races, I have handicapped the entire Friday evening card at The Raceway at Western Fair District.  In addition to the $300,000 Molson Pace, there are the four finals of the City of London Series on the racing program.  For those interested in wagering on the $15,000 guaranteed Pick 4, I am providing detailed analysis for races 9-12.  Don't forget HANA Harness' The Pen vs. The Chip Handicapping Challenge is covering the evening's races so you may want to see what those handicappers are selecting (selections will be available Friday morning).

TVG Update: Race 9 (City of London Final, Start of Pick 4) and Race 10 (The Molson Pace) will be covered live on TVG Friday night.

Here are my selections.  For those who are not familiar with racing at the Western Fair District, post eight scores from the second tier.  I will provide comments for also eligibles as they may get in if a scratch occurs before 11:00am on Friday.

1st Trot; $53,800 - City of London Series Final - Horses and Geldings
2 - Hey AJ (Henry, 3-5)
1 - Herbie Is Gone (Green, 5-2)
4 - Kilmartinliberator (Williams, 8-1)
6 - P C Firecracker (Clements, 9-2)

2nd Pace; $4,800 -$10,000 Claiming Conditioned
5 - Eataam Whosurboy (Holiday, 4-1)
8 - Kerrona (Gingras, 7-2)
3 - Kennairn Life Sign (Henry, 7-5)
4 - J Js Jet (Brewer, 7-1)
Also Eligible: (9) Power Smile - Consider if he draws inside.

3rd Trot; $57,400 - City of London Series Final - Fillies and Mares
6 - Daylon Miracle (Wall, 1-1)
2 - Real Housewife (MacKenzie, 5-2)
5 - Cut The Rug (Horner,30-1)
4 - Amber Kadabra (Young, 10-1)
Also Eligible: (9) Blazing Shot - Gait to unpredictable; (10) Just One Amigo - Will be still a maiden after race.

4th Pace; $10,000 - Fillies and Mares Preferred 2
1 - Ostinato (McNair, 6-1) 
5 - Chief Karen (Shepherd, 13-1) 
2 - Bath Beach (Campbell, 8-1) 
4 - Pathtodover (Bowins, 2-1) 

5th Trot; $18,000 - Invitation Handicap
6 - Lexis D J (Battin, 3-1) 
8 - Santo Domingo (Plante, 5-1)
7 - Indiana Hall (Henry, 5-2)
4 - Long Ago (Richardson, 4-1)

6th Pace; $58,200 - City of London Series Final - Fillies and Mares
6 - Machnazetrois (Henry, 15-1) 
7 - Phoenix Seelster (Shepherd, 10-1) 
3 - Albanian Era (McNair, 7-5) 
8 - Regal Princess (Young, 3-1)
Also Eligible: (9) Nics Regal Lass - May land share with inside post and a trip; (10) Royal Cover Up - May possibly get into the final spot of the Superfecta.

7th Pace; $12,000 - Non-winners $7,500 Last 3 Starts
1 - Leafs And Wings (McNair, 8-5) 
5 - Willies Place (Henry,7-2)
6 - Mach It Big (Gingras, 4-1) 
4 - Risky Rich (Plante, 12-1) 
Also Eligible: (9) Jackstan - Appears in tough.

8th Trot; $130,000 - Ontario Sires Stakes Gold Final - 3yo Colts and Geldings
1 - Il Mago (Ritchie, 8-5)
7 - Keystone Orion (Boughton, 12-1) 
5 - Cold Certified (Brewer, 2-1) 
2 - Midfield Magic (Campbell, 7-2)
Also Eligible: (9) Heres The Magic - Live if draws in; (10) Grandin Road - Can't dismiss automatically if draws in.

9th Pace; $62,200 - City of London Series Final - Horses and Geldings (Start of Pick 4)
1 - Carsons Cracker (McNair, 4-1) - Speed outside of him should cost him the front.  May grab minor spoils.
2 - Jetta Flys (Henry, 3-1) - Will get the front and play catch me if I can.  The one to beat.
3 - Special Session (Gingras, 7-1) - Could be an upset special if stays flat.
4 - Spike Hanover (Bartlett, 25-1) - Needs a perfect trip; not likely.
5 - Modern Xhibit (Lilley, 5-2) - Jogged in last.  Will try for the front but be outpased to the 1/4 pole.
6 - J F L (Campbell, 30-1) - Don't think he will be able to get involved.
7 - Regal Delight (Young, 9-2) - Perfect this year.  The outside likely to end streak.
8 - Jo Willy (Richardson, 5-1) - Lifetime mark last week.  Should overcome second tier; threat.
Also Eligible:
  9 - All About Fame (Gingras, NL) - Been impressive.  Must step up game if he draws in.
10 - Smoking Bear (Sparling, NL) - Could be interesting with a covered up trip.
Selections: 2-8-5-1  

10th Pace; $300,000 - Molson Pace Final
1 - St Elmo Hero (Haughan, 8-1) -  This field too tough.
2 - Clear Vision (Kakaley, 3-1) - Should face tougher competition tonight; can't rule out in exotics.
3 - Atochia (Batlett, 7-2) - Like the Levy Final, this one is for the marbles.  Advantage over Foiled Again.
4 - Machal Jackson (Plante, 20-1) - Would be lucky to pick up a check.
5 - Razzle Dazzle (Campbell, 4-1) - Wouldn't be shocked if this one pulls off the minor upset.
6 - Foiled Again (Gingras, 2-1) - Last year's champion appears to be hampered by the draw.  Lands share.
7 - Arachache Hanover (McNair, 9-2) - Too much speed inside of him.
8 - Stonebridge Tonic (Henry, 15-1) - Another one who seems to be overmatched.  Pass.
Also Eligible:
  9 - Valentino (Henry, NL) - Only consider if drawing the rail.
10 - Up The Credit (Jamieson, NL) - Should be tigher.  Still think would be in a little deep.
Selections: 3-5-6-2

11th Pace; $12,000 - Non-winners $7,500 Last 3 starts 
1 - Roethblissberger (McNair, 8-5) - Ships in from WEG circuit and draws the rail.  Likely overbet.
2 - Flames Cammi Boy (Lilley, 20-1) - Minor spoils with a trip.
3 - Future Million (Shepherd, 7-1) -  Toss last out.  Should make a better account of self; still not enough.
4 - Good Bad Lucky (Gingras, 2-1) - Maybe they know something I don't, but certainly not playable at 2-1.
5 - Winter Blues (Henry, 7-2) - Wired last and steps up slightly.  Can race up front or the back.  Considere.
6 - Bulldog Tenacity (Williams, 20-1) - Granted, not the best post for this one, but shouldn't be this long.
7 - Button Up (Horner) - Tough spot for this one.
8 - Fleet Sensation (Campbell, 6-1) - A question if encounters too much traffic early on.  My guess is no.
Selections: 8-6-4-5

12th Pace; $18,000 - Invitation
1 - Wild Dragon (Gingras, 4-1) - Should get away well.  Makes one move in stretch.
2 - First Rate Shark (McNair, 2-1) - Won last.  Eligible to repeat.
3 - Cactus Jack (Campbell, 8-1) - Impeded in last.  This should be tougher.
4 - Mcapulco (Shepherd, 3-1) - Question if can keep up with pace.
5 - Acceptable Risk (Henry, 6-1) - Needs a slower pace to be a threat.
6 - Stonebridge Terror (Brewer, 7-2) - Needs to be rated better.  Don't ignore.
7 - Hare Craft (Byron, 8-1) - Jumped off in last.  Not for me here.
8 - Piece Of The Rock (5-2) - WEG shipper gets class relief, but may have problems from second tier.
Selections: 1-2-6-8
Pick 4 Selections (Starts with race 9): 2,8-3,5,6-All-1,2,6     Total Cost ($.20 wager): $28.80

13th Pace ; $15,000 - Fillies and Mares Preferred Handicap
1 - Victim Of Love (Carroll, 10-1)
4 - SissyBar (Plante, 3-1)
2 - Pink Kangaroo (Wray, 7-1)

14th Pace; $6,200 - $8,000 Claiming Conditioned
2 - Outoftexas (Richardson, 3-1)
5 - Fit To Ben Tied (Lilley, 15-1)
8 - Stress Buster (Battin, 7-2)
6 - Donegal Mac (Holliday, 4-1)
Also Eligible: (9) St Lads Cable Guy - Winless this year.  Extends streak if draws in.