Pick Xs and the Dreaded Scratch

Picture this. You are live through the first four legs of the Pick-6 and you are sure of your horses in the last two legs. You then hear the announcement that in the last leg of the Pick 6 your selection has been scratched and you will be given the post time favorite in that leg.

One slight problem. You don't like the probable post time favorite. Sure enough, you win the fifth leg and in the final leg the post time favorite runs out of the money. To make matters worse, your second pick in the last leg turns out to be the eventual winner. Instead of sharing in the $250,000 pool you head home or turn off your computer wondering why you even bother. Will this be the straw that breaks the camel's back?

In the modern era of sophisticated tote systems and ADWs, there is no reason for this to happen. Bettors that are sophisticated enough should not have to automatically receive the post time favorite in the event of a scratch; after all, there is a reason they did not select the horse in the first place.

Let me introduce you to one way this may be handled:

When you make your picks in each leg, you will select your reserve list of up to three horses or designate the post time favorite. In the event one of your selections in a particular leg is scratched, the first selection on your reserve list will be your substitute. If the first selection on your reserve list is scratched, the replacement will be your second selection and so on. If some reason all the horses on your reserve list are scratched (more likely with runners with a race coming off the turf), then you will get the post time favorite.

Here is an example using a Pick-4:

1st leg selections: 5, 6, 7 Reserve: 5, 1, 2
2nd leg selections: 1, 2 Reserve: 3, 4
3rd leg selections: 8 Reserve: 1, 4, 7
4th leg selections: 2, 4, 6 Reserve: Favorite

In this case, assuming it is a $1 wager, you will have an $18 wager where you have 3X2X1X3 coverage.

In this example, if there is a scratch of the 5, 6 or 7 in the first leg, you will get the first available selection from your reserve list (yes, you could end up with having the 5 twice in the first leg). In the second leg, since you only show two reserve entries, if both of them are scratched, you would then default to the post time favorite. In the last leg, you are indicating you want the post time favorite.

If you bet through a teller, you would need to use a bet slip to indicate your reserve list. If you choose not to use a bet slip, your reserve list will automatically be the post time favorite. If you bet from home or a self service machine, you will be able to key in your selections.

Yes, there are a couple of drawbacks to this approach. The reserve list is per race, not per horse meaning if you play multiple selections in a leg you may end up with the same horse twice. It also doesn't address the case of a coupled entry where the part of the entry you like is scratched but this would be a vast improvement over the current way things are done.

Bottom line is the bettor does not need to be babied. Give them the option to select their own substitute in the event of a scratch.