First a reminder that you will find my take on tomorrow night's Meadowlands action immediately below this posting.
Unlike the Meadowlands' racing program tomorrow night, the Meadows is presenting a very disappointing race card. After the super Adios Final, there are two divisions of the Adioo Volvo (for 3yo pacing fillies) and an Adios consolation race. The other twelve races? Six divisions of the Arden Downs for 2yo pacing colts and another six divisions of the Arden Downs for 2yo pacing fillies. Well, at least they are not 2yo trotting races.
I understand Adios Day is the biggest day in racing at the Meadows and people want to see their horses racing on the same card but this has got to be economical suicide for the overall handle for the racing card. Tonight at the Meadows they have some high class races. You would have thought at the very least they would have carded half of the 2yo races for tonight and moved some of the better races from tonight onto tomorrow's card. But that is their call. Now on to the big races on the Meadows card tomorrow:
7th - 1st Divison - Adioo Volvo
4 - Pedigree Snob (4-1)
7 - Dawn's Legacy (2-1)
2 - I'm Not Gonna Lie (12-1)
1 - Smooth Silver (6-1)
Pedigree Snob raced last week in a conditioned pace at Pocono Downs winning in a romp in 1:53.1. Being this was her second start back since being scratched sick in the Ladyship Stakes, I expect her to continue to improve. Dawn's Legacy is the horse to beat, having won her division of the Reynolds back on July 7 in 1;52.1 and then last week qualified in 1:53.2 at the Meadowlands. If she drew inside she would be my pick but with the outside post and odds probably going to be less than 2-1, I will look for her on the bottom of the exacta. I'm Not Gonna Lie had no chance in her last at the Meadowlands, but prior to that she was tough in the Reynolds and the PASS. Back on her home turf, look for her to get a share and possibly pump up the exotics. Smooth Silver draws the rail and picks up Dave Palone. Her lines are not that bad and with the driver change she may make a better show of herself.
9th - 2nd Division - Adioo Volvo
9 - Ginger and Fred (2-1)
4 - Shanghai Lil (3-1)
1 - Jkmusicofthenite (20-1) - longshot chance; read below
2 - Personal Ad (4-1)
Of all the big races today, Ginger and Fred is the best bet. Yes, she draws post position nine but this is not a strong field. Winner of the Fan Hanover consolation at Mohawk, a seven length winner in the PASS at the Meadows two starts ago from post position seven and a victory last week in the Tarport Hap at the Meadowlands from post position eight in 1:50.4. She clearly lays over this field. Shanghai Lil is clearly second best with her victory in the Reynolds at Pocono and last week's victory in the Geers at Tioga Downs. As good as she is, she will need something to go very wrong with Ginger and Fred to get the win. Jkmusicofthenite is actually the horse to consider if you have any idea that Ginger and Fred and Shanghai Lil decide to get hooked up in a suicide speed duel. Being both race best on the front end, there is a possibility of it, though unlikely. Anyway, Jkmusicofthenite is a much better horse than a 20-1 should be; finished 2nd in a Lismore elimination and final, winner of a division of the Reynolds, 2nd in her division of the Geers. At long odds, she may be worth a win bet; just in case a suicide duel does develop. Personal Ad, has been a steady performer. May land in the triple.
11th - Adios Consolation
5 - Sheer Desire (5-1)
6 - Upfront Hoosierboy (4-1)
2 - Panmunjom (5-1)
3 - Vertigo Hanover (3-1)
Sheer Desire is the only horse in the consolation to finish within five lengths of their elimination's winner. Luke warm choice to win. Upfront Hoosierboy drew in against Well Said in his elimination, before that was racing well. Picks up Palone, can contend. Panmunjom also drew in the same division as Hoosierboy did; won prior start at the Meadows. Definite possibility for exotics. Vertigo Hanover was disappointing in his elimination of the Adios, showed no life. If he rebounds to his Meadowlands form he can take it all.
12th - Adios Final
5 (pp4) - Keep it Real (5-1)
6 (pp9) - Well Said (8-5)
3 (pp 1) - Vintage Master (3-1)
2A (pp7) - Mr Wiggles (10-1)
Due to the fact that there is common ownership between horses, there is a three and two horse entry in this race so instead of nine wagering interests, there are only six. I understand the rationale for requiring them to be coupled but when you are racing for $677,000 do we need to worry about a stable mate being used as a rabbit? There are valid points on both sides of this issue to be discussed another day.
Thanks to the open draw (something discussed in an earlier post), we have a fantastic horse race. From post nine, Well Said is an 8-5 morning line favorite. From the inside, you would be looking at a 4-5 morning line. If Well Said wins today, he all but clinches the 3yo pacing colt division championship for this year and if Muscle Hill falters, could be a leading horse of the year candidate.
That being said, I will look for the upset by Keep it Real. Make no mistake, Well Said is the best horse in this division and may very well win this race but Keep it Real finished 2nd to Well Said last week loosing by two lengths. Keep it Real moves in from post position seven to post position four while Well Said moves from post position five to post position nine. Keep it Real won the Burlington at Mohawk and has a 7-2-1 record in ten starts this year (unraced at two). In the elimination of the North American cup he lost to Well Said by 3/4 of a length. This is the first time he has drawn inside Well Said; it may be the difference. At 5-1, he is definitely worth a wager. Well Said is clearly the best horse in the race, the post as already discussed may be the one thing to keep him from the winner's circle. Vintage Master draws the rail. He finished 2nd to Well Said in the Meadowlands Pace and 2nd to Mr Wiggles in his elimination last week making him a trifecta candidate. Mr Wiggles finally seems to be living up to his early season reputation. If for some reason there is a torrid pace up front, he is posed to be flying at the wire. A legitimate long shot selection.
Despite all the two year old races, tomorrow afternoon's action is a good warm up for tomorrow night's races. Enjoy the day.
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