I am sure we all have our pet peeves, but there are some of peeves which irk the harness racing fan big time. You know, the ones that make them want to scream. For example:
New Fans, Who Needs New Fans?
It annoys the heck out of the harness racing fan when they hear some people in harness racing suggest it is better to let slot players be instead of trying to convert them to horse racing (Note: This is not Ivan Axelrod saying this, he is relaying what others are saying). What is the rationale? Purses would likely do better with the gambler playing slots than they would do if that person was to turn to the horses.
To be fair, these people are not saying don't attract new horseplayers, but it certainly rankles the harness racing fan when they hear this mentality for it suggests what the fan already thought; horsemen (and track operators) just care about the short term and don't care about the long term consequences. However, logic suggests racing would do better in the long run if it worried more about developing new fans from anywhere it can, even if in the short term it meant lower revenues.
It's Post Time, Time to Grab a Hot Dog
Do I really need to go into this one? What is post time? It used to be when a race would go off (or admittedly at many tracks, a two minute warning). Now, it can be when the horses come out to the track to warm up, it can mean five to ten minutes till the race starts, it can also be the time the mutuel manager watches to see when virtually every last dollar that can be bet on the race is bet. Whichever definition you choose, if you are at the track go ahead and get your hot dog. Unless it is a rare stakes night, you will be back in your seat in plenty of time for the race to go off. In the meanwhile, people will continue to complain one of the problems with horse racing is it takes too long to complete a race card.
When Did I End Up in a Third World Racetrack?
Scioto Downs and a few other tracks are excused from this category. You show up at your local racino and you walk through the beautifully appointed casino to bet the races and all of a sudden you wonder where the heck you are, Oriental Park Racetrack? Okay, that may be a bit extreme, but you know what I am talking about? A run down facility, snack stands closed, few tellers, a coat of paint being considered a capital improvement. Talk about being a second class citizen. You have to be a real racing fan to subject yourself to such abuse. Odds are you are going to the casino or will be playing from home where everyone will complain how little the track makes from your wager.
I know, this is the gaming companies running a cost analysis and deciding racing doesn't pay so why put money into the track? Well, the same applies for non-racino tracks. You will complain how few people show up but you won't do anything about it. It takes money to make money. If you aren't willing to make the capital expenditures, consider seeking a partnership with someone who will.
Harness Racing is Stronger Than Ever?
Huh? What racing are the horsemen watching? Small pools where $10 can sink the odds? The two hundred people showing up at the track to watch the races? No doubt horsemen and racetracks are prospering (if a racino), but it is propped up on government largesse. Take a look at Ontario and see what happens when someone kicks the chair out from under racing. How strong is racing really?
Too Much Money is Being Bet through ADWs
Yes, racing let the ADWs get in the racing game and pay a much smaller fee for the product. You will also hear racetrack executives complain how a $1 million can be bet via ADWs and they make only $30,000 for the evening (to be split between horsemen and operators). Stop whining about it and do something. Why aren't racetracks working together in an effort to recoup the gambling lost to ADWs by forming your own ADW. Work with other tracks and form a partnership to compete against ADWs. At least then, while you may not get as much money as you would with betting through your own windows, you will get more money if the ADW is owned by a consortium of tracks. Yet no one makes any such move.
Monday, May 6, 2013
The Year 1976 as a Turning Point
Many fans of the trotting sport hear the 1976 and immediately answer "The Meadowlands". As VFTRG contributor Joe F. explains, the Meadowlands was only part of the year that was a turning point in standardbred breeding and racing. Joe's piece is a great read. Sit back and enjoy.....
During the
post parade Sam McKee makes it a point to inform the bettors about what brand
of sulky a driver is using. If he guesses wrong he will come back prior to the
race and make a definitive call. It wasn’t always like that. One of the major reasons the year 1976 serves
as a significant turning point for harness racing is the fact that In December
of 1975 Joe King’s modified sulky had been successfully introduced as the
Yonkers meet came to a close. When racing shifted to Roosevelt Raceway the bike
was used on 14 horses on the initial eight race card and six of them won. The
bettors cried out for a designation on the program and the OTB entry sheet. The
buzz was similar to that which accompanied the emergence of King’s single-shaft
sulky earlier in the decade, only this time the USTA was powerless to legislate
it out of existence. The modified bike would speed up the game as nothing else
had.
Although it
was obvious that the horses were moving markedly faster than they had in the
past, some trainers, drivers and owners remained in a state of denial. Joe
O’Brien was one of those. Seventeen of the eighteen trotters in that year’s
Hambletonian were hitched to the new bike; O’Brien’s outstanding Speedy
Scot-Armbro Flight filly, Armbro Regina, was the only one pulling a traditional
wooden sulky. Regardless, there’s no doubt that the new bike was a major factor
in the speed explosion that was initiated in 1976.
Another
factor in the sudden explosion of pacing speed was superior breeding. Meadow
Skipper was sixteen in 1976. His first crop, which contained Most Happy Fella,
hit the track in 1969, and Albatross came along the following year. By ’76
Skipper had a number of quality horses in play, including: Governor Skipper,
Handle With Care, Nero, Jade Prince, Escort, Windy Way, Tarport Skipper,
Windshield Wiper, Raven Hanover, Seedling Herbert and JR Skipper. They hadn’t
taken over yet, but by the time Skipper passed, six years later on January 28,
1982, he was firmly in possession of the crown.
A look at
the Little Brown Jug provides us with some perspective on the sea change that
was occurring. Pre Skipper—the winners of the Jug came from Adios, Billy
Direct, Good Time, Knight Dream, Poplar Byrd and their sons. MHF won the race
in 1970—the first year a Meadow Skipper was eligible. This win was followed by
a brief dry spell during which Strike out, Melvin’s Woe and Armbro Omaha won
the Jug, but during the 42 years from 1970 on, almost 75% of the Jugs were won
by colts, and one filly, that trace back to Skipper on the top line. In
addition, eight of the first ten editions of the Meadowlands Pace were won by
sons or grandsons of Meadow Skipper.
Most Happy
Fella’s first crop was four-years-old in 1976, and it included Tarport Hap and
Silk Stockings. Oil Burner, whose claim to fame as a stallion lay with No
Nukes, was a member of MHF’s second crop, along with Precious Fella, the sire
of Tijuana Blue Chip and Whitey’s Fella, as well as the influential New Zealand
sire, Smooth Fella. Tyler B came along in ’77 and Cam Fella two years later. No
Nukes (79) was MHF’s most influential grandson, giving us Western Hanover and
Jate Lobell. Tyler B contributed Dragon’s Lair.
Skipper’s
son Nero, who was four in ’76, was a great colt and in March of that year Alan
Leavitt syndicated him for $3.6 million, the highest valuation ever placed on a
standardbred; there were 25 shares valued at $144,000 each. The first of his
progeny raced in 1980 and his last crop hit the track in 1997. He was very
prolific, and he was popular, for a while. In the end he was not highly
regarded as a sire—Runnymeade Lobell, Icarus Lobell and Trutone Lobell were
three of his best. Skipper did have some misses.
Albatross
produced plenty of good racehorses, but was not a sire of sires. His son
Niatross is credited with success in his first two crops with the likes of
Nihilator, Barberry Spur, Pershing Square, Caressable, Handsome Sum,
Masquerade, Semalu D’Amour and Smartest Remark, but he fell off the earth after
being relocated to New York.
The Skippers
did not dominate the sophomore pacing division in 1976. Keystone Ore, Stanley
Dancer’s Bye Bye Byrd colt, was the star for most of the season. He won the
Cane, Jug, Tattersalls and Bluegrass. But his sire was 21-years-old and
Keystone Ore would be his last shooting star. Nesbit, Batman, Bye And Large,
Bye Bye Max, Meadow Paige, Albert’s Star, Keystone Smartie and Keystone Memento
had all come before Ore. And none of them would extend their dad.
Tar Heel was
28-years-old in 1976. Richmond, a full-brother to Nansemond and Isle of Wight,
was a stakes colt but not a prominent one. Like Bye Bye Byrd, Tar Heel, who
lived to the age of thirty-four, was past his prime as a stallion. His son
O’Brien Hanover was twenty-one, but he had never been anything but a NYSS
stallion. Laverne and Isle Of Wight were ten that year, Kentucky was nine and
Nansemond eight, but none of them were worth anything as stallions. Steady Beau
was sixteen and sired Steady Star, the fastest horse on the planet for nine
years, but that one never won anything of note. Armbro Ranger, from Steady
Star’s first crop, was a top tier colt, but he was about it.
Good Time
had Crash racing as a two-year-old in 1976 but the little guy was just about
out of gas. His son Race Time was fifteen but, aside from Dream Maker, there
wasn’t much there that year. Good Time’s two best, Columbia George and Best Of
All, were nine and twelve, respectively. Like Steady Star, they had Hanover
behind them and were primed for outstanding careers at stud. Unfortunately that
didn’t happen. George had Beckilyn Hanover, Le Baron Rouge and Timeron Hanover
as four-year-olds that year, but none of the sons of Good Time were of any
value when it came to extending him.
Bret
Hanover, the great hope of the Adios line, was fourteen in 1976, and standing
for $2,500 at Castleton Farm.. His son Warm Breeze was three that year. Like
Steady Star, Warm Breeze was very fast but his accomplishments on the GC didn’t
match his speed. When he won the Matron he paid $118. He was the fastest colt
that year at :54.4 and did set a WR of :53.1 the following year at Sacramento.
His premier son, Falcon Seelster, was an accomplished sire but unless McArdle
throws an outlier Bret is destined to dead end on top with McArdle. It’s
Abercrombie who has kept that Adios branch alive via his son, Artspalce. The
winners of the last four Jugs have been out of Artsplace mares; 35% of the Jugs
since 1970 have been won by colts, and a filly, that are out of Adios line
mares. The mares from all of the above were productive, but things began to
narrow on top.
Yonkers
cancelled their International Pace in March of 1976 after the connections of
the top five Down Under pacers turned down their invitations. The devaluation
of the dollar as well as harsh quarantine rules that pretty much required a
horse to spend most of the season here made the introduction of horses from
Australia and New Zealand much less desirable for the Kiwis. Horses like
Cardigan bay and Cardinal King that had been so instrumental in the growth of
the sport during the 1960s became less prominent. The import business was still
strong but there was less incentive to ship the best Down Under horses to North
America. The sport had decided to privilege speed over stamina and toughness;
distance racing was going the way of the wooden sulky. Also, sire stakes
advocates saw a conflict of interest in subsidizing their blood polluters at
the same time all these grizzled geldings were being imported from Down Under.
There were
712 two minute miles recorded in 1975; with 20% of the year left there were
already double that number recorded in 1976. Yes, the opening of the
Meadowlands played a significant role in this but it was more than that.
Roosevelt Raceway recorded 25 two minute miles in all of 1975, while in the
first 38 nights of the 1976 summer meet in Westbury there were already 31 such
miles. Two-year-old Governor Skipper qualified in a pedestrian, by today’s
standards, 2:03.4 and it was met with shock and awe.
The speed
explosion on the twice arounds wasn’t confined to the top tier horses; on the
fourth of July Adelweiss Rainbow won in 2:00 at RR, and the same night the more
celebrated Albert’s Star won in :59.3 and Jug winner Seatrain in :58.1. Those
three would have amounted to 12% of the 2:00 miles at Roosevelt in all of 1975.
Later on in the month Silk Stockings broke her own TR at Monticello, notching a
win in :57.2. While Keystone Ore won over the Saratoga half in :56.2. And when
Keystone Ore won the Cane his :57.1 mile broke Silk Stockings :58.2 mark for
three-year-olds.
Striking
Image, a pretty good brother to Ring Of Light and Mirror Image, broke the YR
two-year-old TR. Albatross held the RR two-year-old mark of 2:00.4, which he
set for Harry Harvey when he jogged in the Roosevelt Futurity, but Stanley
Dancer’s Nansemond brother to Triple B, Kawartha Eagle, won in 2:01 at
Roosevelt that year, a mere tick off the record. Rambling Willie broke the WR
for a mile and a quarter on a half in the Yonkers Summer Series and Handle With
Care broke the mile and a half record in the Hudson Valley FFA Pace.
When the
Meadowlands opened on September 1, large quality fields and an aggressive style
of driving accelerated the parade of broken records. Rambling Willie
established the TR beating Nero, and Oil Burner went the third fastest mile
ever by a three-year-old in the Holmes, beating
Armbro Ranger in :55.1. He had tied the WR of :54.4 for a three-year-old
pacer earlier at Syracuse. And Young Quinn got Nero at the wire in :55, a WR
for an aged gelding and the third fastest mile in history. The conflation of
Meadow Skipper’s influence, the modified sulky and the opening of the Meadowlands
led to unprecedented speed.
Five weeks
after the Meadowlands opened Jade Prince had folks shaking their heads when the
two-year-old Meadow Skipper colt went the fastest race mile ever--:54.1—for
Jack Kopas in winning the second heat of the Fayette Pace at The Red Mile. He
had paid $30 in the first heat as part of an entry with Super Clint and Crash. The
:54.3 win by four-year-old Albatross at Sportsman’s Park in 1972 was and still
is a significant marker, similar to Steady Star’s :52 time trial, but having a
freshman take that record from him was incredible. Taurus Bomber had equaled
the Albatross mark earlier in 1976 at Springfield, but that accomplishment
turned into a footnote.
Thirty-seven
years later those high tech bikes are still a key ingredient to success, The
Big M is still a prominent player in the speed game and Skipper still rules on
top. With regard to the latter however, the Volomite line running though
Sampson Hanover and SBSW may be mounting a challenge Skipper and his progeny
haven’t faced before, so we’ll have to keep an eye on that one.
Sunday, May 5, 2013
Morning After Briefs
After going through 250 emails this morning, with about 200 of them being Derby-related (next year I need a filter), here are some morning briefs for the morning after.
When people think of Churchill Downs Inc.(the corporation), they think of a racing goliath. Well goliath may apply, but racing? Not so quite. Take a look at this article in the New York Times on how Churchill Downs has begun looking past racing and into alternative gaming. It is annoying many horsemen but the truth is, no company can remain a pure racing organization and expect to survive.
The Wall Street Journal Marketwatch feature had an article about buying race horses. Kudos to Chris Wittsruck for getting into the article to indicate what a bargain standardbreds could be
This week a trainer got set down and transferred his horses to another trainer; one with only one career start prior to this week. This new trainer may very well be qualified, perhaps working as an assistant trainer before their new assignment. However, those conspiracy theorists will automatically assume 'beard' and you can't blame them. There needs to be a way to track assistant trainers so when they get their big chance, often taking over a stable for a suspended trainer, people will think 'opportunity' instead of 'beard'.
Vernon Downs was shut down yesterday as EHV-1 showed up on the backstretch. Horses can't get in, and can't get out at this time. The said thing is there is a vaccine against this illness. Watch as other track refuse to accept horses that raced at Vernon over the past few weeks.
There is a big debate in the horse rescue industry regarding purchasing Broker Owned Horses versus horses directly coming from the sale
When people think of Churchill Downs Inc.(the corporation), they think of a racing goliath. Well goliath may apply, but racing? Not so quite. Take a look at this article in the New York Times on how Churchill Downs has begun looking past racing and into alternative gaming. It is annoying many horsemen but the truth is, no company can remain a pure racing organization and expect to survive.
The Wall Street Journal Marketwatch feature had an article about buying race horses. Kudos to Chris Wittsruck for getting into the article to indicate what a bargain standardbreds could be
This week a trainer got set down and transferred his horses to another trainer; one with only one career start prior to this week. This new trainer may very well be qualified, perhaps working as an assistant trainer before their new assignment. However, those conspiracy theorists will automatically assume 'beard' and you can't blame them. There needs to be a way to track assistant trainers so when they get their big chance, often taking over a stable for a suspended trainer, people will think 'opportunity' instead of 'beard'.
Vernon Downs was shut down yesterday as EHV-1 showed up on the backstretch. Horses can't get in, and can't get out at this time. The said thing is there is a vaccine against this illness. Watch as other track refuse to accept horses that raced at Vernon over the past few weeks.
There is a big debate in the horse rescue industry regarding purchasing Broker Owned Horses versus horses directly coming from the sale
Saturday, May 4, 2013
Happy Derby Day!
Happy Kentucky Derby Day! While I am not someone who is enthralled with the "sport of kings", I realize many of you are and that is fine. May you be cashing winning tickets on the big race this afternoon at Churchill Downs.
Of course, there is some great racing action today on the standardbred front. The 2013 Grand Circuit Handicapping Challenge continues with the Dexter Cup (9th race) at Freehold Raceway, while the Simpson Memorial for 3yo colts and geldings (3rd race) and Meadowlands Maturity Trot for 4yos (6th race) are on tap tonight at the Meadowlands. If you need some handicapping advice on these three races, make sure you check out HANA Harness' handicapping contest site for some selections by the team of handicappers.
So good luck to all of you today, whether or not you cast your lots with the runners and/or trotters.
If you are thinking of staying home to watch the Derby that's fine, but why not consider some of your local tracks? Many harness tracks have specials tied in to the Derby. Pocono Downs for example has a double header on tap with the first race in the afternoon card starting at 11:00am with the regular evening card commencing at 6:30pm. Harrah's Philadelphia will race this afternoon instead of its normal evening card while Tioga Downs opens their 2013 season with their annual Kentucky Derby festival. with a few races going off before the Derby before time is called with the card resuming after the Derby. Check your local track's website for additional details, after all, it is more fun watching these big races with company than alone.
Of course, there is some great racing action today on the standardbred front. The 2013 Grand Circuit Handicapping Challenge continues with the Dexter Cup (9th race) at Freehold Raceway, while the Simpson Memorial for 3yo colts and geldings (3rd race) and Meadowlands Maturity Trot for 4yos (6th race) are on tap tonight at the Meadowlands. If you need some handicapping advice on these three races, make sure you check out HANA Harness' handicapping contest site for some selections by the team of handicappers.
So good luck to all of you today, whether or not you cast your lots with the runners and/or trotters.
If you are thinking of staying home to watch the Derby that's fine, but why not consider some of your local tracks? Many harness tracks have specials tied in to the Derby. Pocono Downs for example has a double header on tap with the first race in the afternoon card starting at 11:00am with the regular evening card commencing at 6:30pm. Harrah's Philadelphia will race this afternoon instead of its normal evening card while Tioga Downs opens their 2013 season with their annual Kentucky Derby festival. with a few races going off before the Derby before time is called with the card resuming after the Derby. Check your local track's website for additional details, after all, it is more fun watching these big races with company than alone.
Friday, May 3, 2013
The Boys Take Center Stage in New Jersey
With the first Saturday in May it can only be one thing, the Stakes Season kicks off in earnest, in particular the trotting ranks with the Dexter Cup at Freehold Raceway in the afternoon and the initial Meadowlands Maturity at the Meadowlands in the evening. In addition to the trotters on display, we have a field of seven three year old pacers competing in the John Simpson Memorial at the Big M.
As with the Lady Suffolk, here is my review of the fields for all three races..
Saturday, May 4, 2013
9th Fhld - Trot; $139,600 - The Dexter Cup - 3yo colts and geldings
1 - King Muscles (McCarthy, 6-1) - Starting off slow this year but winner of the Harold Dancer at Freehold last year and being competitive in the NJSS says this horse has promise. It should be noted he won his last race at Freehold. At 6-1, he is an attractive wager.
2 - Il Pizzailo (Schnittker, 8-1) -Won a late closing leg at Vernon last week but has yet to show the ability to go against the better stock. While Schnittker has traditionally has a good showing in the Dexter Cup, it doesn't look like this will be the year.
3 - Stirling Bullet (Manzi, 10-1) - Understandably dull in his debut he is bound to give a better performance but I still don't think that performance will be good enough. It should be noted last year Sstirlig Bullet had a way of taking himself out of the race.
4 - Celebrity Maserati (Jackson, 9-2) - Second tier as a two year old who has gone wire to wire in his qualifier and nw1cd race at Pocono. May very well be up to this field. Look who starts outside of him. Certainly one for your exotics.
5 - Celebrity Stimulus (Smith, 7-2) - Completes and uncoupled Celebrity Farms stable entry and it can't help the entry is starting right next to each other. Lone win last year came against lower class at Pocono Downs. Prepped for this start with two qualifiers, including a victory at the Meadowlands in the AM. May be able to step up and compete but as far as I am concerned, the weaker half of the stable entry.
6 - Dewey Luvs Britt (Oscarsson, 5-1) - Another one that looks as if he has matured and approved. Failed in Red Mile late closers badly last year but has raced well since the calendar has turned to 2013. Won a nw3 at Pompano Park in last start. Must use in trifectas.
7 - Dontyouforgetit (Gingras, 5-2) - The king of the PASS last year went south for the Breeders Crown series. Trained back well including back-to-back wins in the morning at Freehold and Meadowlands. Only question is if willing to accept less than 2-1 from post seven?
Selections: Dontouforgetit is the obvious choice but at less than 2-1, I don't see much value. If I can get 6-1 on King Muscles, I'll take my chance with a win bet. Failing that, likely to play 7-6-1 trifecta and will consider a 7-6-1-4 superfecta.
2nd M1 - Pace - $39,615; John Simpson Memorial - 3yo colts and geldings
1 (pp 4) - Johnny Rock (A Miller, 2-1) - Class of the field draws the center post and enters race of three solid qualifiers. On class alone he should take this race.
1A (pp 7) - Duel In The Sun (Callahan, 2-1) - Seems to be more of a second tier horse. Finished fifth against Captaintreacherous in the AM last week.
2 (pp 1) - Delaware Hanover (Tetrick, 5-1) - Has come back well this year finish second in nw3 events at Phl5/8. Should note was a complete flop in Woodrow Wilson last year.
3 (pp 2) - Kenzie's Beach Boy (Pierce, 10-1) - Solid effort in last start at Phil but was nowhere in the Weiss series at PcD5/8.
4 (pp 3) - Johns Polyview (D Miller, 5-2) - Has been racing better this season and was solid in the PASS last year. Starts inside the morning line favorite. Not out of this race at all.
5 (pp 5) - Real Rocker (Gingras, 6-1) - Ships east for first time in career. Hard to gauge so I will want to see a start in person first.
6 (pp 6) - Rocnrolwilneverdie (Campbell, 7-2) - Seems to have improved over the winter and is 4-2-2-0 thus far this year. Has improved time-wise at Yonkers over earlier victory at the Meadowlands. If looking for value play, this may be the one.
Selections - The obvious 1-4-6 trifecta offers no value so the key is to find the horse to play to win or an exacta. Safe bet may be 1/4,6 in exacta but if can get value, may be worth to play a 4,6/1,
6th M1 - Trot - $100,000; Meadowlands Maturity - 4yo Open
1 - Guccio (Takter, 5-2) - Has prepped smartly for this race and figures to be the one to beat. The question is do you take him at the odds he is offered at?
2 - Little Brown Fox (Gingras, 10-1) - Was close all during the late season races but not sure he has progressed over the winter. Will want to see a race against these.
3 - Googoo Gaagass (Callahan, 6-1) - Last year's feel good story comes into this race off a win in last qualifier. I don't see him ready at first asking unless something freaky happens.
4 - Solvato (Smedshammer, 15-1) - Winner of mid level conditioned race at Phl5/8 last start. I don't see him here today.
5 - Harbor Point (Pierce, 9-2) - Already has twelve starts this year with three wins. Wouldn't surprise me but I don't see him better than minor spoils.
6 - Modern Family (Tetrick, 4-1) - Winner of 7 for 10 this year; trying toughest company of the campaign but deserves a shot against these. Could be dangerous off a trip.
7 - Magic Tonight (Campbell, 8-1) - Has been racing well against open company but failed miserably last year against his own age group. We will see now if he has stepped up or just a solid overnighter.
8 - Uncle Peter (D Miller, 9-2) - One of last year's marquee horses returns off of out of state preps. Should note he finished behind Guccio in Matron elim and final last year. Definite threat.
9 - Another Amaretto (A Miller, 25-1) - Would be a major shocker if he comes in. Shocker as in 1969 Mets.
10 - My MVP (Lachance, 15-1) - Will be a major contender this season but draws the worst of it in seasonal debut. At best, gets involved in the Trifectas and Superfectas.
Selections: Hard to go by Guccio for the win, but will likely settle on a 1-6 Exacta Box
As with the Lady Suffolk, here is my review of the fields for all three races..
Saturday, May 4, 2013
9th Fhld - Trot; $139,600 - The Dexter Cup - 3yo colts and geldings
1 - King Muscles (McCarthy, 6-1) - Starting off slow this year but winner of the Harold Dancer at Freehold last year and being competitive in the NJSS says this horse has promise. It should be noted he won his last race at Freehold. At 6-1, he is an attractive wager.
2 - Il Pizzailo (Schnittker, 8-1) -Won a late closing leg at Vernon last week but has yet to show the ability to go against the better stock. While Schnittker has traditionally has a good showing in the Dexter Cup, it doesn't look like this will be the year.
3 - Stirling Bullet (Manzi, 10-1) - Understandably dull in his debut he is bound to give a better performance but I still don't think that performance will be good enough. It should be noted last year Sstirlig Bullet had a way of taking himself out of the race.
4 - Celebrity Maserati (Jackson, 9-2) - Second tier as a two year old who has gone wire to wire in his qualifier and nw1cd race at Pocono. May very well be up to this field. Look who starts outside of him. Certainly one for your exotics.
5 - Celebrity Stimulus (Smith, 7-2) - Completes and uncoupled Celebrity Farms stable entry and it can't help the entry is starting right next to each other. Lone win last year came against lower class at Pocono Downs. Prepped for this start with two qualifiers, including a victory at the Meadowlands in the AM. May be able to step up and compete but as far as I am concerned, the weaker half of the stable entry.
6 - Dewey Luvs Britt (Oscarsson, 5-1) - Another one that looks as if he has matured and approved. Failed in Red Mile late closers badly last year but has raced well since the calendar has turned to 2013. Won a nw3 at Pompano Park in last start. Must use in trifectas.
7 - Dontyouforgetit (Gingras, 5-2) - The king of the PASS last year went south for the Breeders Crown series. Trained back well including back-to-back wins in the morning at Freehold and Meadowlands. Only question is if willing to accept less than 2-1 from post seven?
Selections: Dontouforgetit is the obvious choice but at less than 2-1, I don't see much value. If I can get 6-1 on King Muscles, I'll take my chance with a win bet. Failing that, likely to play 7-6-1 trifecta and will consider a 7-6-1-4 superfecta.
2nd M1 - Pace - $39,615; John Simpson Memorial - 3yo colts and geldings
1 (pp 4) - Johnny Rock (A Miller, 2-1) - Class of the field draws the center post and enters race of three solid qualifiers. On class alone he should take this race.
1A (pp 7) - Duel In The Sun (Callahan, 2-1) - Seems to be more of a second tier horse. Finished fifth against Captaintreacherous in the AM last week.
2 (pp 1) - Delaware Hanover (Tetrick, 5-1) - Has come back well this year finish second in nw3 events at Phl5/8. Should note was a complete flop in Woodrow Wilson last year.
3 (pp 2) - Kenzie's Beach Boy (Pierce, 10-1) - Solid effort in last start at Phil but was nowhere in the Weiss series at PcD5/8.
4 (pp 3) - Johns Polyview (D Miller, 5-2) - Has been racing better this season and was solid in the PASS last year. Starts inside the morning line favorite. Not out of this race at all.
5 (pp 5) - Real Rocker (Gingras, 6-1) - Ships east for first time in career. Hard to gauge so I will want to see a start in person first.
6 (pp 6) - Rocnrolwilneverdie (Campbell, 7-2) - Seems to have improved over the winter and is 4-2-2-0 thus far this year. Has improved time-wise at Yonkers over earlier victory at the Meadowlands. If looking for value play, this may be the one.
Selections - The obvious 1-4-6 trifecta offers no value so the key is to find the horse to play to win or an exacta. Safe bet may be 1/4,6 in exacta but if can get value, may be worth to play a 4,6/1,
6th M1 - Trot - $100,000; Meadowlands Maturity - 4yo Open
1 - Guccio (Takter, 5-2) - Has prepped smartly for this race and figures to be the one to beat. The question is do you take him at the odds he is offered at?
2 - Little Brown Fox (Gingras, 10-1) - Was close all during the late season races but not sure he has progressed over the winter. Will want to see a race against these.
3 - Googoo Gaagass (Callahan, 6-1) - Last year's feel good story comes into this race off a win in last qualifier. I don't see him ready at first asking unless something freaky happens.
4 - Solvato (Smedshammer, 15-1) - Winner of mid level conditioned race at Phl5/8 last start. I don't see him here today.
5 - Harbor Point (Pierce, 9-2) - Already has twelve starts this year with three wins. Wouldn't surprise me but I don't see him better than minor spoils.
6 - Modern Family (Tetrick, 4-1) - Winner of 7 for 10 this year; trying toughest company of the campaign but deserves a shot against these. Could be dangerous off a trip.
7 - Magic Tonight (Campbell, 8-1) - Has been racing well against open company but failed miserably last year against his own age group. We will see now if he has stepped up or just a solid overnighter.
8 - Uncle Peter (D Miller, 9-2) - One of last year's marquee horses returns off of out of state preps. Should note he finished behind Guccio in Matron elim and final last year. Definite threat.
9 - Another Amaretto (A Miller, 25-1) - Would be a major shocker if he comes in. Shocker as in 1969 Mets.
10 - My MVP (Lachance, 15-1) - Will be a major contender this season but draws the worst of it in seasonal debut. At best, gets involved in the Trifectas and Superfectas.
Selections: Hard to go by Guccio for the win, but will likely settle on a 1-6 Exacta Box
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