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Friday, May 13, 2016

Confederation Cup Preview

The blog has been quiet this week with yours truly spending time in the hospital but we are back now in time to review the Confederation Cup which will be contested Sunday at Flamboro Downs.  Wiggle It Jiggleit once again draws poorly, post position 9 which on the Flamboro oval is the second tier.

WIJI so far this year has a record of  6-4-2-0 which considering is his first year racing against older horses is quite an accomplishment.  However, it does show wagering on him on such low odds doesn't make sense.  Let's say you had wagered $2 to win on each of his starts this year, investing $12.  These six wagers would have netted you a -$1.30 profit; clearly not a profitable proposition.  Hence, the goal here is to figure out if there is anyone who has a fair chance of beating him at satisfactory odds.  Let's take a look at the field and see if we can find a play which makes sense.

Sunday, May 15, 2016
Flamboro Downs 11th Pace - $244,400; Confederation Cup (Ex, Tri, Super Hi-5)  
1 - Rodeo Romeo (9-2, B Miller) - Tries better company off of Pocono win.  Can't rule out.
2 - My Hero Ron (6-1, Kakaley) -  Racing in upper condition races.  Tough spot to win first race of season.
3 - Americanprimetime (10-1, Christoforou) - Defeated by #1 in last start when he had the rail.  Not likely.
4 - Rockin Ron (3-1, Gingras) - 9 for 9 this year out in Midwest.  Will see how good he really is.  At 3-1 or higher, a worthwhile pick.
5 - Drachan Hanover (12-1, Waples) -  Been racing well at the Hawk.   A legitimate longshot play at 9-1 or more.
6 - National Seelster (8-1, Filion) -  Don't see him at this level.  Pass.
7 - Rock In Heaven (7-1, Henry) -  Winner of last will need to step it up to win.
8 - Rock N Roll World (9-1, Macdonald) -  Seems to have come back as a different horse.  Use in exotics despite post.
9 - Wiggle It Jiggleit (6-5, Teague) - Clearly the best.  Do you play at odds-on from second tier?  Your choice.

Selections - 5-9-4-8-1

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Northville's chart has been corrected. Showing DNF