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Thursday, October 21, 2010

Forget Football; The Red Mile Concludes

I like college football as much as anyone else but this Saturday is one day where football takes a back seat during the early afternoon as The Red Mile's 2010 harness meet comes to a conclusion. To say the meet ends on a high note is an understatement.  What you will be seeing at The Red Mile is arguably one of the best harness cards of the year.  While the races may not be the best wagering opportunities, if you love harness racing this is one race card you must see.  So if you don't have an account wagering account and can't see the races over the Internet, head over to your local racetrack and catch the simulcast of the days action from Lexington, Kentucky (shame on any harness track not handling the closing day card).

How good is the card?  Buck I St Pat kicks off the first race in the Allerage Farms Filly and Mare Trot; Break The Bank K, Il Villaggio, Lucky Chucky, and Wishing Stone compete in two divisions of the Bluegrass for 3yo trotting colts and geldings; Enough Talk and Lucky Jim face off in the Allerage Farms Open Trot; Big Bad John competes in the International Stallion Stake for 2yo pacing colts and geldings; Foiled Again, Vintage Master and Won The West do battle in the Allerage Farms Open Pace; and this year's stakes season concludes with One More Laugh and Rock N Roll Heaven doing battle possibly for the last time in the Tattersalls.  With the winter racing season beginning after Saturday's card, the next time you will see so many high quality horses competing on a single card will be Hambletonian Day next year. 

Here is my analysis of the Saturday afternoon card at The Red Mile.  First race is at 12:30pm.

1st Trot - $74,000; Allerage Farms Fillies and Mares Open
1 - Windsong Soprano (Pierce, 9-2) - Horrible trip in last.  With the rail, may be able to score the minor upset.
2 - Autumn Escapade (D Miller, 3-1) - Chased #6 around the Pocono oval in the Crown.  Figures to try same strategy this week.
3 - Yursa Hanover (Dube, 6-1) - Best efforts seem to come on the smaller ovals.  Don't see her finishing in the top three.
4 - Easy Dream (Palone, 15-1) - The proverbial sacrifical lamb.  Pass.
5 - Southwind Wasabi (Gingras, 8-1) - Never regained her form since the scratch sick in early September.
6 - Buck I St Pat (Tetrick, 1-1) - Champion looking to take a victory lap here.  The horse to beat.
Selections: 1-6-2

2nd Pace - $77,000; Allerage Farms Fillies and Mares Open
1 - On The Glass (Gingras, 7-2) - Ran out of steam setting blistering fractions at Pocono.  May be a factor if beter rated.
2 - Tug River Princess (Campbell, 3-1) - Had an impossible trip in the Crown when bothered.  May be able to take it all with better racing luck.
3 - Forever Ivy (Norris, 10-1) - Tough spot to return after three weeks and scratching sick.  Pass.
4 - Southwind Tempo (Tetrick, 5-2) - Mare draws well for the first time in four starts.  Expect her to make the most of it.
5 - Chancey Lady (A Miller, 4-1) - Seems to be up against it this week.
6 - Ginger And Fred (Sears, 6-1) - Lands share with a trip.  Completes exotics.
7 - Cadie's Gotta Gun (Pierce, 15-1) - No idea why she's even in the race.  No chance.
Selections: 2-4-6

3rd Trot - $121,500; Bluegrass Series 3yo Colts and Geldings (1st Division)
1 - Jetblue Volo (Brennan, 12-1) - Seems to be over his head against these.  Pass.
2 - Sailaway Dream (Tetrick, 12-1) - Another one that appears overmatched. 
3 - Winning Fireworks (Morrill, 8-1) - Interesting possibilty helped out by drawing into weaker division.  Upset chance?
4 - Kash's Caviar (Campbell, 8-1) - Sharp qualifier last week.  Better than he shows.
5 - Break The Bank K (Sears, 6-5) - No Wishing Stone, Lucky Chucky here.  One to beat.  Odds-on.
6 - Il Villaggio (Jamieson, 4-1) - Top colt last year only making third start of the year.  May be trying to salvage a breeding deal.  Don't ignore.
7 - Classic Son (A. Miller, 6-1) - Lightly raced son of Classic Photo will need to get involved early to factor.
8 - Shaq Is Back (Schnittker, 10-1) - Will be hard pressed to get involved here.  Pass.
Selections: 5-4-7-3

4th Trot - $143,000; Allerage Farms Open
1 - Enough Talk (Pierce, 9-5) -  Breeders Crown winner is the horse to beat but somewhat suspect.  Will try to beat him..  
2 - Slave Dream (Campbell, 6-1) - Will be there if top two falter which is not out of the question.
3 - All Cantab (Jamieson, 12-1) - No chance at Pocono.  Don't ignore in your trifectas.
4 - Lanson (Lachance, 10-1) -  Has lost a step.  Not against these.
5 - Lucky Jim (A Miller, 2-1)  - Clearly not the horse of last year.  Wary of break in last.
6 - Hot Shot Blue Chip (D Miller, 9-2) - Tends to be his own worst enemy.  Must behave to land share.
7 - Airzoom Lindy (Tetrick, 12-1) - Top conditioned trotter is over his head here.  Pass.
Selections: 2-1-5

5th Pace - $145,000; International Stallion Stake 2yo Colts and Geldings (1st Division)
1 - Samandar (Brennan, 9-2) - Best efforts come against state-breds.  Pass.
2 - Lookinforadventure (Dube, 9-5) - Draws inside.  Collared in 26.4 final quarter in Bluegrass.  Wins with a better rated trip.
3 - Risk Management (Mcnair, 10-1) - Looking to break his maiden.  Don't see that happening here.
4 - Big Bad John (Palone, 2-1) - Sharp victory in last off a scratched-sick.  Expect improvement.
5 - Sharp West Hanover (Pierce, 15-1) - Start is likely another tightener.  Pass.
6 - Lizard King (D Miller, 6-1) - May be able to spice up exotics.
7 - Real Special (Lachance, 12-1)  - Still just a step below the top tier.  May be interesting next year.
Selections: 2-6-4

6th Pace - $144,100; Allerage Farms Open
1 - Won The West (D Miller, 3-1) - Breeders Crown champ looks to take a victory lap here.  Odds will be much lower than 3-1.
2 - Bettor Sweet (Sears, 4-1) - May have only one victory this year but will still be heard from here. 
3 - Vintage Masster (Dube, 7-2) - Didn't look good in his return.  Want to see more.
4 - Foiled Again (Gingras, 9-2) - Slowly losing his reputation as a half mile specialist. Worth a look if you are trying to beat the favorite.
5 - Dali (Jamieson, 12-1) - Aired it out last week before spitting out the bit in a 1:22.4 three quarters.  May sneak into the superfecta.
6 - Atoichia (Morrill, 8-1) - Is finally developing into a top trottter.  Expect a big year next year.
7 - Dial Or Nodial (Brennan, 6-1) -  Sharp 1:49.4 last week but this will be tougher.  Pass.
8 - Annieswesterncard (Pierce, 15-1) - A great upper conditioned pacer.  This will be too tough.
Selections: 1-4-2-6

7th Pace - $146,000; International Stallion Stake 2yo Colts and Geldings (2nd Division)
1 - Fashion Delight (D Miller, 3-1) - Wilson winner cna take it all and you may get decent odds as well..   
2 - Air Wing Hanover (Gingras, 20-1) - Not even sure why this one is entered.  Pass.
3 - Something For Doc (Morrill, 6-1) - Came home in a fast quarter against #5 but loses Tetrick.
4 - Sir Ziggy's Z Tam (P Lachance, 6-1) - Shows he can compete against open company but still in tough.
5 - Feel Like A Fool (Sears, 2-1) - The horse to beat but is no certain lock.
6 - Mystic Desire (Tetrick, 7-2) - Has improved since shipped to the mid-west.  Tetrick's choice here.
7 - Four Starzzz Z (Pierce, 12-1) - Appears to be racing better.  Pass.
8 -  Ray's San (Brennan, 20-1) - Second tier horse hoping for minor spoils at best.
Selections: 1-5-3-6

8th Trot - $121,500; Bluegrass Series 3yo Colts and Geldings (2nd Division)
1 - He's A Demon (Jamieson, 4-1) - Has had little success against these.  Share with a trip.
2 - Flex The Muscle (Schnittker, 8-1) - Great on the half, bad on the larger oval.  Nothing to like. 
3 - Takeachancewithme (Tetrick, 15-1) - Consistent B track sort ships down to race against better.  May spice up the exotics.
4 - Lucky Chucky (Campbell, 2-1) -  Eventual 3yo trotter of the year turns the table on #8.
5 - Brother Glide (Dube, 12-1) - Canadian shipping south off a two race win streak.  Trifecta contender.
6 - Hard Livin (Gingras, 10-1)  - Second tier colts will be hard pressed to have success here.  Pass.
7 - Bullet (D Miller, 20-1) - Taking up space on the starting gate.
8 - Wishing Stone (Brennan, 9-5) -  Futurity winner draws the worst of it.  May be the difference here.
Selections: 4-8-5-3

9th Pace - $604,000; Tattersalls 3yo Open
  1 - Urgent Action (Miller, 15-1) - Has blossomed on the larger oval.  May factor into the exotics.
  2 - Shoobee's Place (Pierce, 12-1) - Showed nothing last week and no reason to expect better.
  3 - Rock N Roll Heaven (Dube, 2-1) - 3yo pacing colt of the year looking to make possible final start a winning effort.  The one to beat.
  4 - Dreamlands Art (Morrill, 12-1) - Was able to use the rail last week to suck along and land second.  Don't see that happening this week.
  5 - One More Laugh (Tetrick, 5-2) - Division runner-up looking to sting the favorite one last time.  Not out of the question.
  6 - Rockin Image (Gingras, 8-1) - May be hard to get involved.  Pass.
  7 - Allthatgltrsisgold (Magee, 20-1) - A good horse but way over his head.
  8 - World Of Rocknroll (Sears, 20-1) - Early season sensation has cooled off.  Pass.
  9 -  Aracache Hanover (Mcnair, 15-1) - Confederation Cup winner draws horribly.  Pass.
10 - Piece Of The Rock (Brennan, 20-1) - Draws the far outside in an overflow field.  Never a good thing.
11 - Razzle Dazzle (Campbell, 6-1) - Starts in the second tier behind horses likely not to leave.  May land share.
Selections: 3-5-1-11

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