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Thursday, July 15, 2010

Meadowlands Pace; Dancer Memorial and NJSS Preview

Note: Updated to include Friday and Saturday night selections for Tioga Downs.

Saturday night is the second biggest day in the 2010 Meadowlands meet, only behind the Hambletonian and features the $1,000,000 Meadowlands Pace for three year olds. In addition to the Meadowlands Pace, the final Meadowlands prep race for the Hambletonian is being held with three splits of the Stanley Dancer Memorial. Lastly, two year old New Jersey-sired horses are on display with the finals of the New Jersey Sire Stakes. To make things easier to follow, we will discuss each race separately.  As a reminder, the Delvin Memorial divisions being raced Friday night are previewed here

Meadowlands Pace (and Consolation)

6th Pace - $100,000; Meadowlands Pace Consolation – 3yo Open
Selections: 7 Iam Bonasera (7-2); 3 Razzle Dazzle (3-1); 9 Windfall Blue Chip (15-1).

Iam Bonasera has been closing with :26.3 and :25.4 last quarters.  With the first tier in the final, any type of trip should find him in the winners circle.  Razzle Dazzle has been improving; other than Iam Bonasera, the only horse that was withing five lengths to the elimination winner.  Windfall Blue Chip had no chance in his last start being parked the whole way.  May complete the trifecta with any type of trip.

8th Pace - $1,000,000; Meadowlands Pace – 3yo Open
1    Kyle Major (15-1) – Figures to ride the rail and hope for room at the end.
2    Rockin Image (3-1) – Elimination winner on two race win streak after layoff. The fresh horse.
3    Rock N Roll Heaven (5-2) – Figures to be gunning for the lead. Possible speed duel?
4    Valentino (15-1) – Best chance may be to gun it and see how far he can go.
5    I’m Gorgeous (12-1) – Finished second off layoff. Figures to be tighter. May get in the exotics.
6    Delmarvalous (12-1) – Lucky to get in. Not lucky enough to be a serious threat.
7    Nova Artist (15-1) – Improving but still not sure this caliber.
8    One More Laugh (9-2) – Can’t ignore but runs the risk of bad racing luck.
9    Fred And Ginger (10-1) – Hasn’t been able to repeat early season success.
10  Sportswriter (6-1) – Was not 100% last week. Don’t let the ten post stop you.
Selections: 10-2-3-5

Despite the horrible post position, I like the North America Cup champion Sportswriter. Sportswriter was not 100% last week and the stable was pleased with the effort. Expect Macdonald to try to get up close anticipating a Rock N Roll Heaven and Valentino going at it. I think Rockin Image will be able to get a good trip to finish second and the fast tempo may cause Rock N Roll Heaven to fade at the end.

Stanley Dancer Memorial (three divisions)

1st Trot - $127,500; Stanley Dance Memorial – 3yo Open (1st division)
1  Oh No It’s Steveo (9-2) – Stepping up. Don’t see
2  Balcktuxwhitesocks (8-1) – Belongs with state breds.
3  Cassis (9-5) – Smashed all age record at Goshen in 1:55.4 in what turned out to be a workout. Note trainer claims horse is best on the half.
4  Senor Glide (3-1) – Horse has the class advantage. Figures to be there if #3 falters.
5  He’s A Demon (5-1) – Tries stakes company first time. Tested for class.
6  Olla Podriga (15-1) – Would be a huge upset if he wins.
7  Coco Lindy (6-1) – Starts the night off with an upset?
Selections: 7-4-3

Coco Lindy is making third start of the year and may be hitting his best stride. Looking for an upset. Senor Glide is the class of the race who should make a good show of himself, Cassis was a monster at Goshen as he knocked more than three seconds of all-age trotting record. We know he is fast but it is a question of what happens if someone looks him in the eye. As much as I love him, I can’t touch him at 9-5.

5th Trot - $130,000; Stanley Dancer Memorial – 3yo Open (2nd division)
1  Winning Fireworks (10-1) – Showed promise last year at Lex. Making second start of year. May need the race.
2  Red Light (9-2) – Winner of the Reynolds is being tested for class. Not out of it.
3  Muscle Massive (9-5) – Finished second to Holiday Road in last. May be overbet.
4  Plan B In HD (15-1) – Was flat in Reynolds. Figures to need another start.
5  Take My Picture (8-1) – Finished second in Yonkers Trot. May be the value play here.
6  Flex The Muscle (6-1) – Seems to have tailed off. Can’t recommend.
7  Temple Of Doom (4-1) – Must be respected after finishing third to Holiday Road.
8  Pilgrims Chuckie (8-1) – Dickerson start shows he doesn’t belong with these.
Selections: 5-3-7

Take My Picture finished second a half length off the winner in the Yonkers Trot despite competing against a three horse entry. At 8-1 how can you ignore? Can’t argue with Muscle Massive but he is no 9-5 shot. Temple Of Doom has been consistent for the most part. Have to look at for trifectas.

11th Trot - $130,000; Stanley Dancer Memorial – 3yo Open (3rd division)
1  Holiday Road (6-5) – Able to kick in another gear in stretch in first start. Is this good.
2  Adrion Dream (15-1) – Got beaten against cheaper. Tough spot to rebound.
3  Wishing Stone (15-1) – Ignore half mile breaks but not the spot to make first start. Pass.
4  Pilgrims Taj (4-1) – Was leading when he jumped. Can be a factor if flat.
5  Classic Viking (15-1) – Well over his head. Pass.
6  Break The Bank (5-1) – Was wiped out by Pilgrims Taj in last. Completes trifecta.
7  Mystery Photo (9-2) – Inherited the victory in last. Can figure in exotics.
8  Lucky Chucky (8-1) – Needed last. Should improve; second best.
Selections: 1-8-6

There is nothing to say here. Holiday Road is the real deal. Was collared in first start and kicked in another gear in deep stretch to win. May not be worth a wager, but exotics are worth a look; the race for second and third is that competitive. Lucky Chucky has had a late start and should be second best three year old but there is a slight chance he may need a race. Break The Bank and Mystery Photo have legitimate chances to complete the triple.

NJSS Championships

2nd Trot - $200,000; NJSS Championship; 2yo fillies
Selections:  4 Creme De Cocoa (9-2); 1 Angelette Hanover (7-2); Global Desire (3-1)

Creme De Cocoa was blocked in and practically running over horses in last week's elimination; wins with a better trip.  Angelette Hanover shows ability to win from the rail; note Pierce chose Global Deire.  Global Desire lost to Jezzy; no insult.  Post may be the thing which hurts her chance to win.

3rd Pace - $200;000; NJSS Championship - 2yo fillies
Selections: 7 Lionness Hanover (5-1); Rocklamation (6-1); 4 So Perfect (8-1)

Lionness Hanover won last elimination from the inside.  As long as he doesn't get parked she may still win from this post but a play only at 5-1 or higher.  Rocklamation finished second to Lionness Hanover in last; disregard one prior.  May be able to turn the tables on Lionness Hanover this week.  So Perfect finished third in the Debutante and given a week off to freshen; can't be ignored either.  Ace Of Pace could win but at 9-5 and post nine is worth betting against.

4th Trot - $200,000; NJSS Championship - 2yo colts and geldings
Selections: 8 Leader of The Gang (7-5); 1 VC Chocoholic (8-1); 5 Winuendo (6-1); 4 Gunga Win (6-1)

Leader Of The Gang is 2-2 with wins in NJSS elimination and the Harriman.  Despite the move outside he is the one to beat.  VC Chocoholic finished second in first pari-mutuel start.  Draws rail and gets Palone.  Winuendo won first time with hopples could have easily been two for two thus far.  If looking for an upset in this race, he may be your pick.  Gunga Win tired in last to finsih third; holds on for superfecta. 

10th Pace - $200,000; NJSS Championship - 2yo colts and geldings
Selections: 3 Lookinforadventure (7-5); Shadyshark Hanover (8-1); 7 Roll With Joe (10-1)

Lookinforadventure has been dominating in both preliminaries.  Hard to see him being beat.  Shadyshark Hanover finished second in Goshen Cup and NJSS preliminary; will likely be following Lookinforadventure to the wire.  Roll with Joe was parked for a half last week and still managed to win.  Can possibly switch places woth Shadyshark Hanvoer.

While the center of American harness racing will be in East Rutherford this weekend, action continues elsewhere.  Tioga Downs continues hosting the Tompkins-Geers on Friday night.  Due to space considerations, I will not be talking about those races specifically, but my selections for those races will be in bold.  Hence, here are my selections for Friday and Saturday night for Tioga Downs.

Tioga Downs - Friday, July 16
1st - Somersault, Yankee Rushmore, Wolf's Jann (4-3-7)
2nd - City Delight, Gold Star Glittere, See You At Peelers (5-7-3) 
3rd -Tuscan Lindy, Playa Tulum, Natural T (2-5-4)
4th - Blazing Winner, Danijill, SJ's Leo, Four Starz Motor (1-8-4-3)
5th - Drop The Ball, Crazy Luv Bug, Love You Always (1-4-2)
6th - Redneck Reindeer, Aviewtoakill, Ladainian (9-6-3)
7th - Galimony, Love And Honor, Chatty Kathy, Tia Maria (3-7-9-8)
8th -Andover America, Lolique, Batalj Launcher (4-6-5)
9th - Southwind Jazmin, Beforethedaystarts, Dreamlands Roxy (8-5-3)
10th - Eagle kelly, Read My Lips, Character Flaw (3-2-8)
11th - Winsmith Jess, Angelwithnattitude, Bullville Monarch (8-4-7)
12th - A Work In Progress, Southern Beauty, Tia Maria Kosmo, Galahad Hall (1-2-8-9)

Tioga Downs - Saturday, July 17
1st - Oh No Three O, Lake View Dale, Pretty Girl (2-3-7)
2nd - Gold Like U, Pennthouse, Savahorsrideasulky (6-7-3)
3rd - Special Eddie, Headingforaruckus, Talulla Davine (2-7-3)
4th - Art's Clown, Nell Fire, Gaje, Really Ready (4-2-5-1)
5th - Jaguar, Prank Player, Giveherthecredit (4-5-3)
6th - I'm In Luck, Up Front Danny Boy, Power Park (9-6-4)
7th - Who Dey, Vertigo Hanover, Max Q, Schemes (4-8-1-3)
8th - M A Roy, Joshadamjacob, Sisyphus (7-3-2)
9th - There He Is, JK Jack Pot, Southwind Matrix (2-4-7)
10th - Fake Denario N, First Of Fun, Armbro Claret (5-1-2)
11th - Late For Lunch, Edgewood, Jeff's Night out (1-5-3)
12th - Village Blizzard, A Canuck Eh, Gavino, I Am So Glad (5-3-6-1)


Phil J. said...

I'll give ya 25-1 on Sportswriter! :)

I just don't think he is good enough to overcome post 10 and the talent inside of him. If he leaves and makes the front, he isn't going to stay there for long. If he leaves and gets a seat, either a- he is going to have to pull again to follow cover or b- pull first over. Not to mention Palone and/or Tetrick may leave leaving him who knows how wide if Yannick, Campbell and Jody step on the accelerators.

So I'll give ya 25-1!

I'm headed to the Big M tonight, so if he does win or run well, I'll find a nice pile of horse manure to eat instead of crow.

And if Valentino or Nova Artist win, I'll be holding up the "Arrest Lou Pena!" sign.

Phil J. said...

I guess I should give some picks since I knocked yours!

If the price on Kyle Major or I'm Gorgeous is at or above the morning line I will incorporate them with Rockin Image, RNR Heaven and perhaps lightly with One More Laugh and Fred and Ginger if the price goes above 15-1 or so.

I think Rock N Roll Heaven is the most likely winner, but certainly isn't a lock.

Valentino scares me.

Pacingguy said...


You may very well be right, especially since the heat is back.

The reason I picked Sportswriter is great horses find ways to win; the same way Well Said won the Jug from post 8. Sportswriter didn't win his elimination for the NA Cup, and won the final. If he is a great horse we will see it tonight. Also, I am not yet convinced Rock N Roll Heaven is a great horse.

The other reason I like Sportswriter is with these small purse eliminations, horses are more concerned with qualifying than winning. Yes, I know Sportswriter had physical problems last week and was lucky to qualify, but if last week was the final, I think he could have done better (not won) than he did.

That being said, if Sportswriter is less than 5-1, I won't touch him and I would go with Rockin Image.