Alan Kirschenbaum blogs on the Canadian Sportsman’s website about his idea regarding a multi-state Pick-8 as his way to get harness racing into the North American consciousness so when people hear about harness racing, they will think about a gambling sport where they can win a million dollars. As Alan correctly points out, at many tracks the purses outweigh what is being wagered so unless something is done quickly, slot revenue is eventually going to get cut off. The Pick-8 is his solution to what is ailing the industry.
While well intentioned, Alan, along with many in the racing industry, is missing the big picture. No argument, we need to get the whales, the people willing to gamble a thousand dollars or more a day interested in harness racing to help support the sport but it is only part of the solution. We need to get your 'typical' smaller gambler interested in harness racing and we need to get people in the stands. A bowler will tell you strikes are nice, but spares make the game. We are trying for strikes (whales) and are ignoring the spares (recreational gamblers). His proposal is not going to do anything to develop a new generation of harness racing gamblers (whales or recreational).
Why should we care about recreational gamblers? First of all, these are the people who will go to the track. Yes, I know the vast majority of the wagering is and will continue to be done off-track but how many people do you think will be interested in a sport where your ‘stadium’ is empty? Also, from today’s successful recreational gambler will come tomorrow’s whales.
Yes, a pool of $400,000 will get the interest of the whales; it may even get them to ignore the 25% (or more) takeout rate on these super exotic wagers some jurisdictions charge. But is this going to get the recreational gambler interested? Absolutely not; these bets are geared towards the big players; smaller players need not try. Realistically, how many combinations do you need to have a reasonable chance of hitting a Pick-4 with any regularity? How many combinations do you need to play to have any realistic chance of hitting a Pick-6 (play just two horses in each race and you have 64 combinations; two horses in each race of a Pick-8 would mean 256 combinations). The recreational gambler who watchees TVG and hears how big the carryover is and they hear their personalities talk about how syndicates are playing thousands of combinations to take down the pool. If you aren’t a whale, you will quickly realize a Pick-6 or 8 is a sucker bet and these bets will have no appeal to you. These Pick-Xs will do nothing to attract new gamblers, our future whales, to harness racing.
So once again, we are ignoring our recreational gamblers. By focusing on these Pick-Xs, we are leaving our regular gamblers with the same old betting options they always had. Why are we not attempting to appeal to them by offering wagering options which can be easily played for a small amount yet have decent pay offs? Why not offer double or triple quinellas where the gambler needs to pick the top two horses in two or three consecutive races or similar smaller scale wagers? These are bets that recreational gamblers can get interested in. Let’s say the minimum wager is $1 on this bet. Joe Gambler decides to box three horses in each leg of the wager. It will cost him $3 for each leg so betting the double quinella for $6 ($9 for the triple quinella) will give the player a good chance to hit and earn a decent pay out. Granted, he is not likely to collect thousands of dollars, but how many gamblers will be willing to wager $6 or $9 in order to collect a few hundred?
Most recreational gamblers are not greedy, but they want to be able to bet a little and win a decent amount of money. Tell them they can bet $6 or $9 to win a few hundred dollars and that they don’t even have to pick the horses in the exact order and they will be interested in racing.
Want to offer a Pick-8? Go for it. Just don't forget the small time bettor. They are just as important to the future of racing. Let's start worrying about offering wagers they may be interested in.
Remember, strikes are nice but spares make the game.
1 comment:
Touche' Pacingguy, your on the right track. We need butts in the seats again. I had the same complaint about the P7 at Pocono. Not set up for the recreational gambler who goes out with his wife for dinner and some entertainment. Most tracks feel that gamblers will come no matter how they are treated. We are seeing this is not the way to do business with all the competition for the entertainment dollar. Please wake up management before it is too late.
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