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Friday, October 2, 2009

Kentucky Futurity Day Preview

Saturday is perhaps the most anticipated day of the whole Red Mile Grand Circuit meet; Kentucky Futurity Day. As such, today's column is the rare occurrence where we talk solely about the racing action instead of issues facing racing. That being said, if you have not had a chance to see yesterday's column, make sure you get a chance.

With Muscle Hill's complete domination over this year's 3yo crop, it is not a question if he will win the Futurity; it is a question of how fast. Will trotting's first sub 1:50 mile take place? We will see. As much as the Futurity is the main event, there is an interesting sub-plot. In Saturday's $5,000 Open, Buck I St Pat takes on the boys. This is the beauty of the Red Mile; where else do you see champion horse racing for such a paltry purse? A win here will add to her prestige as she seeks to become the next Moni Maker.

Here is a review of Saturday's main races.

The fourth race is the first division of the Bluegrass for 2yo pacing colts and geldings. Rock N Roll Heaven is the horse to beat with his second place finish in the Governor's Cup at Chester Downs. Art Professor won the Governor's Cup consolation; this lightly raced 2yo is eligible to improve and can shock the top pick at a long price. Epanephrine won the Champlain at Mohawk in last; picks up a share. Morning line favorite, Woodstock missed time and will be overbet.

In the second division of the Bluegrass (sixth race), Perrito Caliente is a tepid selection to win here. He has been one of the more consistent 2yos in this race racing well in the midwest; can step up and win. Rocking Image will be over bet as he got carried in the Governor's Cup. Drops down but not worth the price for win; consider in exacta. Highlight has been consistent all year, completes trifecta. Show Me Up has never been better, steps up and must be used in exotics.

The first division of the first heat of the Kentucky Futurity (seventh race) features Neighsay Hanover as my selection. With this split devoid of the top horses he should find this field much easier. Big Bikkies has never been better. Steps up and will be overbet. Tom Cango has been on the cusp all year. With the rail he will pick up a major share and could take it all. Dr McDreamy can compete with these; lands a share.

The second division (eighth race) of the Futurity is led by Muscle Hill. Need we say more? The only way he loses is if he beats himself or someone goes on a suicide mission which is highly unlikely. Explosive Matter completes a sub $4.00 exacta. Cesar A Blue Chip picks up a minor share. Hot Shot Blue Chip? The wager on him should be if he stays flat.

The ninth race is a division of the Bluegrass for 3yo colts and geldings. Annieswesterncard should improve following his impossible race in the Jug to win. Straight Shooting raced well in the Jug and should complete the exacta. Dial or Nodial is the class of the field but missed a month; lands share. Woodstock Hanover has been racing well in the NYSS; consider in exotics.

The final division of the Bluegrass for 2yo c&g (1oth race) features my longshot play of the day in Bettor Again. Had tough trip in last at Veron Downs has been very competitive in NYSS. Tries open company and can shock this field. Rock Me Please is the one to beat; going off likely odds-on so I will take a chance to beat him. All Speed Hanover fits this field and must be used in exotics. Payne's Landing is the best of the rest.

Muscle Hill wins the second heat of the Kentucky Futurity which is the eleventh race. Once again, Explosive Matter completes the exacta with Neighsay Hanover finishing third.

Doubleshotascotch is the horse to beat in the second division of the Bluegrass for 3yo c&g (twelfth race). Schoolkids should step up and add value to the exacta. Hypnotic Blue Chip draws well and should be competitive; pick for third but could do better. Ideal Danny must be considered for superfecta.

The eliminations for the Allerage Pace is the thirteenth race. All but the last place horse advances to next week's final. Mister Big had no chance in last week's race as there was not enough horses to follow; pick to win here. Shadow Play is one the toughest horses out there but soundness issues have kept him from reaching his potential. If his feet hold out he can take this race. Won the West won the Winbak last week, this race should be tougher. Shark Gesture has raced well and picks up a share. Much Sleazy could shock this race. If looking for a long shot in this race and he goes off at big odds you may wish to consider him for a long shot play.

The fourteenth race would be the race-off for the Kentucky Futurity if no one has yet won two heats. If we get this far, it will be news. If a miracle happens and we get this far, Muscle Hill is the pick to win.

Enjoy the racing. History should be set today.


Scooter D said...

Good job with your selections Pacingguy. We will be watching and hoping your right.
The Allerage is a tough race to get a handle on because it is an elimination for 10k. How hard are they going to go?

Scooter D said...

Your longshot of the day ran well Pacingguy. Some races we need a flashlight. Muscle Hill is just a freak. Sad to see him go.