The press was correct when they predicted Bold Eagle, a babe at the age of five when compared to the others, would be the favorite to win the 2016 Prix d'Amerique at Vincennes Racetrack outside of Paris France and he did not disappoint as the son of former Prix winner Ready Cash won the race in a stakes and track record 1:11.4/1:54.4 (kilometer/mile rate) for the approximate 1 11/16 mile distance (2,700 meters), obliterating the former record by a full second.
Bold Eagle tracked Timoko for roughly half the race before making his move to the front where he managed to win with relative ease.
Though a losing effort, and no one typically remembers the loser, Timoko was impressive in defeat, finishing second in the marathon race. Oasis Bi finished third in the classic.
While there is more racing in store for the champion, on this side of the pond people must be wondering if we will be seeing Bold Eagle on our shores later this year. At the present time, this is unknown.
Sunday, January 31, 2016
Sunday Morning Miscellanery
The Meadowlands out-of-competition testing program has ensnared trainer Robert Bresnahan Jr. for the use of EPO, a performance enhancement drug. As a result of this positive which was returned by a Hong Kong lab, Bresnahan finds himself excluded from participating at the Meadowlands, Tioga Downs, and Vernon Downs while horses currently trained by him are excluded from participation for 60 days. Bresnahan has the right to have the split sample tested but being the lab has never had a false positive, the odds of a split coming up negative is extremely remote.
Meanwhile on the other side of the country, trainer Marissa Tyler finds herself temporarily suspended pending a final hearing as a result of out-of-competition and post-race testing for cobalt at Cal Expo. In the meanwhile, 21 horses there find themselves on the vet list pending evidence cobalt levels have returned to normal.
While post-racing testing is a needed weapon in the tool against cheating, the most significant infractions are the ones which occur on the farm where trainers may feel more emboldened to 'treat' a horse with a medication that has no therapeutic use. While drugging to get an unfair advantage is plain wrong, to the public which is concerned with animal welfare issues such as whipping and post-racing treatment, the use of drugs which have little benefit and likely are detrimental to the horse is unacceptable. Hence, if looking at the long term welfare of racing, out of competition testing needs to be expanded.
Dean Towers discusses in Harness Racing Update talks about the hard changes made Down Under and how officials need to make similar changes up here. Of course, getting them to move is another story.
As you may be aware, the Prix d'Amerique is being or depending on when you read this, has been contested today. You may wonder why few if any sources had wagering on this race in North America. Lack of interest by the wagering public would be the chief reason. The last time the Meadowlands carried wagering on the race, it handled in the neighborhood of $200, certainly not a reason to open early or go through the expense of setting up the satellite feed, etc. Certainly, the uniqueness of the race, a walk-up start is daunting to the North American gambler who is used to vanilla one-mile contests behind a starting gate, but the biggest problem is the lack of available information. When the information presented seems to be in tongues, it is hard to find anyone other than the most rabid fan looking to make a small wager.
The various trotting countries are trying to come up with a uniform data collection method which will allow gamblers in their respective countries to see information they are familiar with Such a process can't come soon enough. With racing becoming a volume business, it becomes increasingly obvious tracks need to operate as long as possible each day sending and receiving race signals so bettors can get all the action they need.
For the record, my selection for the Prix is Timoko.
Does quality translate to handle? The racing this weekend at the Meadowlands would suggest otherwise as they ended up with a pair of $3 million handles this weekend. Looking at the program, a couple of $5,000 purses for $10,000 claimers and a slew of non-winners of $5,000 and $7,500 in the last five starts races would not make one think of huge handles but I suggest competitive racing is a bigger factor. No doubt, the way conditions are being written helps make the racing competitive. For those who are not following the Meadowlands, the conditions often eliminate horses which won in the same class from racing at the same level in the next start and doesn't allow for horses to drop more than one class to compete in an easier class.
Obviously, all things being consistent, class wins out, but competitive fields wins out when it comes to the bettor's preference.
On the subject of pricing (aka takeout), it puzzles me why tracks need to have blended takeouts when they can have a single takeout rate. A more specific peeve of mine is the higher takeouts for most exotic bets when compared to straight wagers. Of course the reasoning behind this is when you have higher payoffs, who is going to notice more of their profits being scraped away by the rake? After all, does it matter to a horseplayer that they receive a $1,850 payoff instead of $1,900? Perhaps in the old days it didn't matter, but when you look at the more sophisticated gambler of the modern era, they understand their payoff is being cut by the higher rake, which can be significant if the holder of the winning ticket has $20 invested on it instead of $2.
It costs just as much to process a trifecta ticket as does a win wager. While I won't pretend to know what the ideal rate should be, a standard 'oneprice fits all' policy would attract gamblers as they know the lower rake will return more to the horseplayer and keep them playing longer.
Meanwhile on the other side of the country, trainer Marissa Tyler finds herself temporarily suspended pending a final hearing as a result of out-of-competition and post-race testing for cobalt at Cal Expo. In the meanwhile, 21 horses there find themselves on the vet list pending evidence cobalt levels have returned to normal.
While post-racing testing is a needed weapon in the tool against cheating, the most significant infractions are the ones which occur on the farm where trainers may feel more emboldened to 'treat' a horse with a medication that has no therapeutic use. While drugging to get an unfair advantage is plain wrong, to the public which is concerned with animal welfare issues such as whipping and post-racing treatment, the use of drugs which have little benefit and likely are detrimental to the horse is unacceptable. Hence, if looking at the long term welfare of racing, out of competition testing needs to be expanded.
Dean Towers discusses in Harness Racing Update talks about the hard changes made Down Under and how officials need to make similar changes up here. Of course, getting them to move is another story.
As you may be aware, the Prix d'Amerique is being or depending on when you read this, has been contested today. You may wonder why few if any sources had wagering on this race in North America. Lack of interest by the wagering public would be the chief reason. The last time the Meadowlands carried wagering on the race, it handled in the neighborhood of $200, certainly not a reason to open early or go through the expense of setting up the satellite feed, etc. Certainly, the uniqueness of the race, a walk-up start is daunting to the North American gambler who is used to vanilla one-mile contests behind a starting gate, but the biggest problem is the lack of available information. When the information presented seems to be in tongues, it is hard to find anyone other than the most rabid fan looking to make a small wager.
The various trotting countries are trying to come up with a uniform data collection method which will allow gamblers in their respective countries to see information they are familiar with Such a process can't come soon enough. With racing becoming a volume business, it becomes increasingly obvious tracks need to operate as long as possible each day sending and receiving race signals so bettors can get all the action they need.
For the record, my selection for the Prix is Timoko.
Does quality translate to handle? The racing this weekend at the Meadowlands would suggest otherwise as they ended up with a pair of $3 million handles this weekend. Looking at the program, a couple of $5,000 purses for $10,000 claimers and a slew of non-winners of $5,000 and $7,500 in the last five starts races would not make one think of huge handles but I suggest competitive racing is a bigger factor. No doubt, the way conditions are being written helps make the racing competitive. For those who are not following the Meadowlands, the conditions often eliminate horses which won in the same class from racing at the same level in the next start and doesn't allow for horses to drop more than one class to compete in an easier class.
Obviously, all things being consistent, class wins out, but competitive fields wins out when it comes to the bettor's preference.
On the subject of pricing (aka takeout), it puzzles me why tracks need to have blended takeouts when they can have a single takeout rate. A more specific peeve of mine is the higher takeouts for most exotic bets when compared to straight wagers. Of course the reasoning behind this is when you have higher payoffs, who is going to notice more of their profits being scraped away by the rake? After all, does it matter to a horseplayer that they receive a $1,850 payoff instead of $1,900? Perhaps in the old days it didn't matter, but when you look at the more sophisticated gambler of the modern era, they understand their payoff is being cut by the higher rake, which can be significant if the holder of the winning ticket has $20 invested on it instead of $2.
It costs just as much to process a trifecta ticket as does a win wager. While I won't pretend to know what the ideal rate should be, a standard 'oneprice fits all' policy would attract gamblers as they know the lower rake will return more to the horseplayer and keep them playing longer.
Saturday, January 30, 2016
Spicing Up the Wagering Menu for the Mid-Market
As you may be aware, the USTA will be holding a gambling summit this spring in an effort to discuss issues which make increasing handle hard these days. Issues such as takeout and wagering types will be a couple of the topics discussed. Having a summit is a good thing provided the eye is not solely on the large gamblers; consideration must be given to the mid-market player as well.
Make no mistake, these days racing depends (where not slot-subsidized) on the big-time gambler. The problem is whether through an ADW or on-track there are few tracks which make sense for these players to gamble their money on. Casinos work nicely for these gamblers because 'handle' is non-existent for casinos as the player goes up against the house. Of course, as discussed here and elsewhere, racino tracks would like to increase handle as well because while they are committed (or are forced to commit) to racing, they rather have it cover more of the cost as it would improve the bottom line.
So what is any track with a small handle to do in order to guide wagering to their facility? With the large gambler out of the picture, realistically they need to focus on developing the mid-market gambler, someone willing to invest $100 a visit to the track. $100 a person is not much you say? While it is hard to compute with attendance figures hard to come by, most track officials would be doing cartwheels if they could get a per capita of $100 from their on track customers.
The problem is, the mid-market gambler likes to hit it big as much as the big-time gamblers, but unfortunately, most wagering offerings offer little sizzle for these players and the Pick-4 (and up) and Pentafectas (jackpot or not) are too expensive for them to having any success over the long term barring divine intervention. Play the traditional wagers and the takeout will slowly grind their bankrolls down over the long run or they can chase their dream with the super exotics and get their bankrolls ground down quickly as either they try to hit one of these wagers with a couple of tickets or by covering many combinations on one wager going for broke.
Some may say this is what dime wagers are for. Well, if someone hits a superfecta which pays $800 for a dollar, that $80 payoff isn't going to look that good to the person who played $24 in dime wagers to hit it. We may want to say you won $80 for a dime, but the player is going look at it as winning $80 for their total investment which will make the payoff less impressive, which so happens to be the logic in asking the IRS to look at the total amount wagered on a bet instead of the single winning bet when it comes to IRS reporting and withholding.
What is needed are wagers which fall somewhere in between the spectrum of the ho-hum wager and mega pay-off wager, something which if they hit can send them home happy, enough profit to satiate their need for the 'big' hit considering the relatively low investment they need to make to have a decent chance to collect. The question is what kind of wager may that be?
While the Pick-3 and trifecta would fall into this type of wager, the exacta doesn't due to too many small pay-offs (more prevalent at harness tracks). I won't pretend to know all the wager types which would realistically appeal to this type of player, but wagers such as a Double Exacta (or even Double Quiniella) could return decent payoffs for a reasonable investment. Consideration can be given to a Win Most where a player would select winners for each race on the card with the pool going to those who had the most winners on the card.
Of course, realizing a track can have only so many wagers per race, it would require dropping some wagers from the card. At these small tracks, there is no need to offer a superfecta in every race. Perhaps alternating these mid-market wagers with supers would be a good balance.
As for the small-time or recreational gambler, no track is going to turn them away but the existing traditional wagers and some of the mid-market wagers should appeal to them as well; hence getting them to return more often as their wagering bankroll will last longer.
So while the upcoming racing summit the USTA will be sponsoring is important, attention needs to be spent looking for ways to attract the mid-market as well as the larger gamblers.
Make no mistake, these days racing depends (where not slot-subsidized) on the big-time gambler. The problem is whether through an ADW or on-track there are few tracks which make sense for these players to gamble their money on. Casinos work nicely for these gamblers because 'handle' is non-existent for casinos as the player goes up against the house. Of course, as discussed here and elsewhere, racino tracks would like to increase handle as well because while they are committed (or are forced to commit) to racing, they rather have it cover more of the cost as it would improve the bottom line.
So what is any track with a small handle to do in order to guide wagering to their facility? With the large gambler out of the picture, realistically they need to focus on developing the mid-market gambler, someone willing to invest $100 a visit to the track. $100 a person is not much you say? While it is hard to compute with attendance figures hard to come by, most track officials would be doing cartwheels if they could get a per capita of $100 from their on track customers.
The problem is, the mid-market gambler likes to hit it big as much as the big-time gamblers, but unfortunately, most wagering offerings offer little sizzle for these players and the Pick-4 (and up) and Pentafectas (jackpot or not) are too expensive for them to having any success over the long term barring divine intervention. Play the traditional wagers and the takeout will slowly grind their bankrolls down over the long run or they can chase their dream with the super exotics and get their bankrolls ground down quickly as either they try to hit one of these wagers with a couple of tickets or by covering many combinations on one wager going for broke.
Some may say this is what dime wagers are for. Well, if someone hits a superfecta which pays $800 for a dollar, that $80 payoff isn't going to look that good to the person who played $24 in dime wagers to hit it. We may want to say you won $80 for a dime, but the player is going look at it as winning $80 for their total investment which will make the payoff less impressive, which so happens to be the logic in asking the IRS to look at the total amount wagered on a bet instead of the single winning bet when it comes to IRS reporting and withholding.
What is needed are wagers which fall somewhere in between the spectrum of the ho-hum wager and mega pay-off wager, something which if they hit can send them home happy, enough profit to satiate their need for the 'big' hit considering the relatively low investment they need to make to have a decent chance to collect. The question is what kind of wager may that be?
While the Pick-3 and trifecta would fall into this type of wager, the exacta doesn't due to too many small pay-offs (more prevalent at harness tracks). I won't pretend to know all the wager types which would realistically appeal to this type of player, but wagers such as a Double Exacta (or even Double Quiniella) could return decent payoffs for a reasonable investment. Consideration can be given to a Win Most where a player would select winners for each race on the card with the pool going to those who had the most winners on the card.
Of course, realizing a track can have only so many wagers per race, it would require dropping some wagers from the card. At these small tracks, there is no need to offer a superfecta in every race. Perhaps alternating these mid-market wagers with supers would be a good balance.
As for the small-time or recreational gambler, no track is going to turn them away but the existing traditional wagers and some of the mid-market wagers should appeal to them as well; hence getting them to return more often as their wagering bankroll will last longer.
So while the upcoming racing summit the USTA will be sponsoring is important, attention needs to be spent looking for ways to attract the mid-market as well as the larger gamblers.
Friday, January 29, 2016
A New Model for North American Racing - The Tracks and Wagering
People often cite the success of racing in Sweden as proof racing can thrive given the right opportunity. While they may be right, I tend to think they are not aware of how racing is conducted in the Scandinavian country. It is totally different than the majority of North American racing.
Yesterday, I discussed how the new racetracks will need to be developed; part of a planned multi-use residential-commercial development. The question is who will operate these developments?
Under the Swedish model, wagering is operated by ATG, who provides tote services for all forms of racing. Unlike the for-profit tracks in the United States and Canada (except for those operated by non-profits), Swedish racetracks are operated by non-profits; their concern is with racing and supporting the industry, including breeding. The sad truth is racing will not be profitable enough for a for-profit group and like it or not, decoupling will come ending the racino-era at racetracks.
What is needed is a reduction of racing dates with race dates assigned to the various non-profit tracks for meetings (race days, not actual race meets) by this national tote group. The tracks will operate in many ways as they currently are, the exception being wagering outsourced to an ATG-type group which will handle wagering on track and wagering off-track which will also provide the funds for race purses.
Under this ATG organization, with race meets scheduled by them, they will be able to organize marketing for specific meets and the promotion of wagering. Development of new wager types would be one of the missions of this organization, creating new parlay type bets and their V wagers such as the V75 or V86. With one group leading the charge, they will be able to be the point group responsible for getting the wager a large national audience, such as ticket sales through lottery agents (how do you think Megamillions and Powerball become national games). The promise of a nationalized wager with the potential of large pools and payoffs will generate income for the various states, as they seek to modernize their offerings.
What do you do about ADWs? U.S. law provides anti-trust protection to these companies so they will still need to be given access to the signals as currently done. This national wagering agency will need to compete with the ADWs to draw market share to them away from the ADWs
Yes, changes will need to happen on the state levels for this to happen. With many states already allowing ADWs to come in an accept wagers, time will be needed, but eventually state commissions will come around (note this plan doesn't do anything regarding licensing and non-wagering regulations).
Yesterday, I discussed how the new racetracks will need to be developed; part of a planned multi-use residential-commercial development. The question is who will operate these developments?
Under the Swedish model, wagering is operated by ATG, who provides tote services for all forms of racing. Unlike the for-profit tracks in the United States and Canada (except for those operated by non-profits), Swedish racetracks are operated by non-profits; their concern is with racing and supporting the industry, including breeding. The sad truth is racing will not be profitable enough for a for-profit group and like it or not, decoupling will come ending the racino-era at racetracks.
What is needed is a reduction of racing dates with race dates assigned to the various non-profit tracks for meetings (race days, not actual race meets) by this national tote group. The tracks will operate in many ways as they currently are, the exception being wagering outsourced to an ATG-type group which will handle wagering on track and wagering off-track which will also provide the funds for race purses.
Under this ATG organization, with race meets scheduled by them, they will be able to organize marketing for specific meets and the promotion of wagering. Development of new wager types would be one of the missions of this organization, creating new parlay type bets and their V wagers such as the V75 or V86. With one group leading the charge, they will be able to be the point group responsible for getting the wager a large national audience, such as ticket sales through lottery agents (how do you think Megamillions and Powerball become national games). The promise of a nationalized wager with the potential of large pools and payoffs will generate income for the various states, as they seek to modernize their offerings.
What do you do about ADWs? U.S. law provides anti-trust protection to these companies so they will still need to be given access to the signals as currently done. This national wagering agency will need to compete with the ADWs to draw market share to them away from the ADWs
Yes, changes will need to happen on the state levels for this to happen. With many states already allowing ADWs to come in an accept wagers, time will be needed, but eventually state commissions will come around (note this plan doesn't do anything regarding licensing and non-wagering regulations).
Thursday, January 28, 2016
A New Vision for Future Racetracks?
While the new Meadowlands Racing and Entertainment facility is a physical plant designed for the current economic reality of horse racing, it probably doesn't represent the future look of racetracks. For a current track which gets the idea, a multi-use facility, Gulfstream Park probably represents the current idea of a mixed-use facility, with a casino, shopping, dining, and corporate offices as part of their development.
The next step in the future of racetracks, may be coming to Georgia, if horse racing (including harness racing) is approved. There, in a state where casino gambling would seem unlikely, there are plans for a different type of mixed use facility with retail, residential housing, hotels, equestrian, and of course the racetrack. The racetrack would be unique with a park inside the racing oval connected to the various districts. The park can be used on both racing and non-racing days for concerts and other events to maximize utilization of the facility. On the outside of the racing oval, there will a grandstand surrounded by retail dining to allow customers to watch the races (and to be open on non-racing days).
The concept is not totally new, as a similar development is being developed at Alexandra Park in New Zealand. Under the current model, racing alone is not self-sufficient, but as part of a retail and residential development can be profitable as a destination and a point for community events.
Time will tell whether or not pari-mutuel racing is established in Georgia which would allow this development to be built, but considering the need for a steady source of cash to operate racing outside of slots, other tracks would be wise to redevelop excess landholdings into money-making parcels.
The next step in the future of racetracks, may be coming to Georgia, if horse racing (including harness racing) is approved. There, in a state where casino gambling would seem unlikely, there are plans for a different type of mixed use facility with retail, residential housing, hotels, equestrian, and of course the racetrack. The racetrack would be unique with a park inside the racing oval connected to the various districts. The park can be used on both racing and non-racing days for concerts and other events to maximize utilization of the facility. On the outside of the racing oval, there will a grandstand surrounded by retail dining to allow customers to watch the races (and to be open on non-racing days).
The concept is not totally new, as a similar development is being developed at Alexandra Park in New Zealand. Under the current model, racing alone is not self-sufficient, but as part of a retail and residential development can be profitable as a destination and a point for community events.
Time will tell whether or not pari-mutuel racing is established in Georgia which would allow this development to be built, but considering the need for a steady source of cash to operate racing outside of slots, other tracks would be wise to redevelop excess landholdings into money-making parcels.
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