Hiding the Dirt; Mohawk Stakes Preview

Saturday evening is the C$1.5 million Pepsi North America Cup at Mohawk Racetrack.  Also on the card are some additional stakes races.  Admittedly, the favorites look hard to beat, but when they are racing for this amount of money, the races should be driven more aggressively.  Hence, in most of these races, we are going to try to beat the favorite, especially since they figure to go off odds-on.

Before I go on to my picks, I must comment on an article I saw belatedly regarding Lou Pena and the impact it had on the Belmont Stakes having a detention barn.  I personally think it had more to do with the reputation of I'll Have Another One's trainer, Doug O'Neil having received national exposure.  Where I have a problem with the author is suggesting racing keep its scandals under wraps; if someone is caught cheating or being dishonest, get rid of them without drawing attention to it.

It is somewhat problematic to suggest we try to hide scandals, but I understand where the author is coming from.  My problem with the writer's suggestion is his comments that we kept things underwraps in the past and now we don't.  Quite honestly, I would suggest we were more open in the past than we are now.  When I started my handicapping career, I remember reading in harness programs a list of fines and suspension for offenses which occured at a particular track.  The DRF would list the fines and suspensions from the stewards around the country in their newspaper; not exactly hiding the problems.  I can't speak for the DRF, but when was the last time you saw fines and suspensions listed in a harness program? You don't see it anymore; I would suggest on the whole the industry tries to keep the dirty laundry quiet but the Internet and the 24 hour news/sports channels which need material allow these scandals to go public.

Yes, as the writer suggested, back in the 1960's and 1970's when the public felt drivers were crooks, they kept coming back.  It had nothing to do with us keeping the dirt from going public; there was no other game around.  It was horse racing or horse racing.  Now, we have lotteries and casinos; the public has options it didn't back in the good old days.  When they feel wronged, they have another option these days and they take advantage of it.

Anyway, back to Saturday night's races.

A comment about the Mohawk program.  I noticed they are publishing some 'average' race times for certain tracks.  Obviously, this is out of date as they show an average race time of 1:56.3 for the Meadowlands.  Average?  Other than baby races and perhaps two year old trotting races at the very beginning of their campaign, when was the last time a race went in 1:56.3 or slower?  For the record, the USTA has stopped pubishing speed ratings a few years ago.  A more useful chart would be one that lists track abbreviations and the average overnight purse.  However, kudos to WEG for listing on their selection pages the scratch time changes, listing driver selections and more importantly, the driver-trainer ROIs for each race.

Without further ado, here are my selections for Saturday night's stakes races.

3rd Trot - $530,000; Eligantimage-3yo Fillies
  1 - On The Bright Side (Palone, 25-1) - Versatile filly.  Worth a look at the right odds.
  2 - Win Missy B (Sears, 9-2) - Should be tighter and may last if she can rate better.  Definite chance.. 
  3 - Check Me Out (Tetrick, 3-5) - The one to beat.  Likely won't offer value.
  4 - Maven (Gingras, 4-1) - Bounced back in elim but this looks to be tougher.
  5 - Lovely Vacation (Waples, 25-1) - Worth considering for your superfectas.
  6 - Sand Violent Blu (B Miller, 20-1) - No reason to think this one will be a factor.
  7 - Superstar Hanover (Takter, 20-1) - Don't see here.
  8 - Valdonna (Pierce, 20-1) - May not be able to keep up with these.
  9 - Miss Paris (Zeron, 20-1) - Tough spot here.
10 - Personal Style (D Miller, 20-1) - Must hope for a speed duel up front.  Gets it?
Also Eligible:
11 - Delicious (Kakaley, 30-1) - Not up to the challenge.
Selections: 2-3-1-5

5th Trot - $351,000; Goodtimes - 3yos
  1 - Lindys Jersey Boy (Sears, 25-1) - Would be hard pressed to end up on ticket.
  2 - Il Mago (Ritchie, 9-2) - No shot in last.  Never ignore Ritchie when it comes to a trotter.  Share with a trip.
  3 - Knows Nothing (Jamieson, 5-2) - Undefeated and shows versatility.  Consider.
  4 - Market Share (Tetrick, 7-2) - Races best off the pace.  Figures to be the betting favorite.
  5 - Scary Good (Zeron, 30-1) - Not with these.
  6 - Prayer Session (Magee, 15-1) - Consider for lower part of ticket.
  7 - Beer Summit (Pierce, 9-2) - Draws poorly when compared to likely favorite.  Share with trip.
  8 - Guccio (Takter, 4-1) - Must step up game.
  9-  Gym Tan Laundry (Moiseyev, 25-1) - Outmatched.  
10 - Mikey Hanover (Macdonell, 30-1) - Too far out to matter.
Also Eligible:
11 - Southwind Warsaw (Jamieson, 30-1) - Not in the same league as the others.
Selections: 3-4-7-6

6th Trot - $376,000; Armbro Flight - Fillies and Mares
  1 - Bax Of Life (Brewer, 15-1) - Seems to be out of her league.
  2 - Action Broadway (McNair, 7-1) - Will be looking for a trip.  Possibility.
  3 - China Pearls (Waples, 7-2) - Lands share.
  4 - Pembroke Heat Wave (Sears, 6-1) - May be coming into own.  Dangerous with trip.
  5 - Unefoisdansmavie (D Miller, 30-1) - Minor spoils at best.
  6 - Cedar Dove (Pierce, 2-1) - Expect more aggressive drive here.
  7 - Jersey AS (Tetrick, 7-1) - Racing well but this may be too tough.
  8 - Cleopatre Duharas (Zeron, 15-1) - Winless this year.  Don't see.
  9 - Frenchfysnvinegar (Jamieson, 6-1) - Will fire out at start.  Goes the whole way?  Don't think so.
10 - Cameron Chip (Condren, 25-1) - Post eliminates
Also Eligible:
11 - Mystical Starlight (Campbell, 25-1) - Not bad first effort over the big oval.  Look at if draws in.
Selections: 4-6-3-2

7th Pace - $1,500,000; Pepsi North America Cup XXIX - 3yos
  1 - Bettors Edge (Tetrick, 30-1) - Will be hard pressed even from the rail.   
  2 - Dapper Dude (Campbell, 8-1) - May challenge for the victory.
  3 - Time To Roll (A Miller, 12-1) - Like the fact he can race either way.  A plus here.
  4 - Sweet Lou (Palone, 3-5) - The one to beat. 
  5 - Thinking Out Loud (Waples, 12-1) - Will look to pick up the pieces.
  6 - State Treasurer (D Miller, 20-1) - Hoping for a speed duel up front.  Not likely to get it.
  7 - A Rocknroll Dance (Gingras, 10-1) - Impeded in stretch last week.  May be worth a wager.
  8 - Warrawee Needy (Jamieson, 9-2) - Should improve in second seasonal start.  May not be ready yet.
  9 - Pet Rock (Sears, 15-1) - Can't see here.
10 - Simply Business (Pierce, 25-1) - Don't see.
Also Eligible:
11 - Easy Again (Sears, 25-1) - Pass if he draws in.
Selections: 7-4-3-8

9th Pace - $642,000; Fan Hanover - 3yo Fillies
  1 - Angel Scent (D Miller, 8-1) - Has tactical ability.  Lands share.
  2  - Legal Entity (Macdonald, 25-1) - Seems to be in tough.
  3 - Big McDeal (Jamieson, 4-1) - Expects to track the fave.  Will be there if fave falters.
  4 - Romantic Moment (Gingras, 5-1) - Came home in a :26.3.  Lands share.
  5 - American Jewel (Tetrick, 5-2) - The one to beat.
  6 - Jet Wash (Filion, 10-1) - This is much tougher.  Pass.
  7 - Pirouette Hanover (Pierce, 6-1) - Share with best.
  8 - Shelliscape (Campbell, 15-1) - May need another start.
  9 - Economy Terror (Sears, 5-1) - Doubt late move will do it here.
10 - Kiss Don't Bite (A Miller, 20-1) - Don't see.  Seems over matched.
Also Eligible
11 - Cooking The Books (Moiseyiev, 30-1) - Clearly outmatched.
Selections: 5-3-4-1

10th Pace - $100,000; Mohawk Gold Cup - Invitational
  1 - Bigtime Ball (Macdonell, 10-1) - This field a little too deep.  Tab for later.
  2 - Atochia (Gingras, 9-2) - Appears to be on a downturn.
  3 - Golden Receiver (Sears, 5-1) - Will go for the lead and see how far he goes.  Can he rate tonight?
  4 - Betterthancheddar (Zeron, 4-1) - Want to see him against this field.
  5 - Aracache Hanover (McNair, 10-1) - Will head for fence and make move in stretch if room.
  6 - Allthatgltrsisgold (Tetrick, 10-1) - Has a race over the track.  Lands share.
  7 - River Shark (Jamierson, 5-1) -  Share with a trip.
  8 - We Will See (Pierce, 3-1 ) - Tough mile last week.  Expect improvement off of that.  Pick.
  9 - Alsace Hanover (Waples, 10-1) - Not against there.
Selections: 8-3-6-5

Canterbury Park Deal Gets Approved -  The deal to provide Canterbury Park with a purse enhancement in exchange for giving up on trying to get a racino and oppose efforts by Running Aces to get a racino was approved by the Minnesota Racing Commission by a 5-3 vote.  Once again, the harness industry is getting shafted by the thoroughbred industry (to be fair, there have been times the roles have been reversed though far less often).  It is a shame the two industries can't work together instead of throwing the other one under the bus when the opportunity comes.

Tioga Downs Introduces Pilot Whipping Program - Starting Saturday, new rules regarding whipping will be implemented at Tioga Downs.

An Indictment of the Industry

I just received my copy of the June edition of Trot magazine and from just looking at the copy of the magazine, you can tell the impact of the upcoming end of the Slots at Racetracks program are already being felt.   This edition of the magazine appears to be much smaller than it has been before, suggesting there is less advertising in the magazine. 

In the Speaking Out section of this publication, there was an astute letter from owner/breeder/investor Ken Morden, who chastised the industry for being in denial.  As Ken Morden stated "Again the industry did not and still does not understand that the Ontario government has already made the decision to withdraw from the partnership-and our partnership share of the slot revenue is gone, gone, gone".  Morden was basically bemoaning the industry was looking back instead of looking ahead, figuring out how racing is going to survive in the post revenue sharing era.

But Morden was not done.  He indicted racing's leadership for inaction.  As he said "Years ago we were given the proverbial inheritance from a relative with the implication that we should be using the slot revenue to reform our industry and attract real fans....Instead, we have been betrayed by our leaders who did not see this coming and if they did, even worse, did not do ANYTHING.  Damn the torpedoes, full s team ahead.  Take the money and run!"  If you can get a copy of this month's Trot magazine, you need to read Mr. Morden's comments in their entirety as he is spot on.

Well, the American standardbred industry would be well served to take heed of Mr. Morden's comments.  While no one state has been crippled by the government as Ontario (though one can argue New Jersey has been via the ending of the Atlantic City purse subsidies) appears to be, we are pretty much acting the same way the Canadian industry has been, taking the money and run.  Even with what is going on in Ontario now, what is the American racing industry doing?  With the exception of New Jersey, trying to get slots in states that don't already have them.  Even in New Jersey, where Jeff Gural and the NJTHA are working to bring back an industry which was near death, horsemen are basically dreaming of the day slots will come to the Meadowlands and possibly Monmouth Park.

With regards to all breeds of racing, no one is seriously addressing the over supply of racing; meets which run too long; the extended period between races; attracting new customers; excessive takeouts; fighting exchange wagering (California);integrity (racing and pool) and medication issues; breakdowns; whipping; the plight of horses whose careers are over. 

Some action is taking place in New Jersey, but one state alone can do little.  Instead of working on these problems seriously, the industry remains splintered with each segment of the industry worrying about their own parochial interests instead of the greater good, ignoring the fact this industry is in a bubble, artificially supported; praying the government doesn't take the pin out and burst the bubble as being done in Canada.  Unless things change, what is happening in Canada will be taking place in America. 


Racing interests should be concerned about the European Euro crisis which may be the pin everyone is dreading. You would think the impact on American racing and Canadian racing would be limited to fewer Europeans coming to the yearling sales, but the impact could be much worse, one that would send chills down the spines of horsemen.

Remember when the economy tanked in 2007-2008? The American banking problems impacted other economies because we live in a global economy. As a result, should the European crisis deepen or a European country's banking system collapse, it would send the American economy into the tank, perhaps worse than the 2008 credit crunch. It doesn't matter who is President, this is really out of our control.

Why should this concern racing interests? If the economy tanks again, the pressure will be on states to raise revenue. Taxation will not be the answer so where are the states going to get the necessary revenue? Racino subsidies. While most efforts to raid the slot revenue have been fought off successfully or the impacts mitigated in the first crisis, racing may not be that lucky if the economy goes back into the depths of a serious recession.

Is This a Racino Operator?

One of the many criticisms by certain horsemen groups and individuals is Jeff Gural is racino operator.  Well, of course he is by his operating Tioga Downs and Vernon Downs and it is no secret that he is hoping to get slots installed at the Meadowlands someday, but the impression his critics would like legislators and others to take away is Gural could care less about racing; it is all about the slot machines.

This image his opponents are trying to paint does Gural and the industry a huge disservice.  Make no mistake without a racino, Tioga Downs would never have been built; Vernon Downs would probably have met the wrecking ball, the result of a sale of assets in a Chapter 7 bankruptcy proceeding.  Without having these two New York racetracks, Jeff Gural may not have had the ambition or the clout to acquire the Meadowlands when the track's existence was threatened.

Yet, he is far from the typical racino operator.  Name me one other racino operator who is actively trying to make a difference in harness racing?  Other than a few operators who try to promote their existing product, most racino operators are content with the status quo, looking at racing as a loss leader which allows them to have alternative gaming, waiting for the opportunity to cut racing lose when the opportunity arises.  Gural tries to promote racing, encouraging people to attend the races and get people interested in the game.  He cares about the game.

These opponents of Gural would be wise to open their eyes and smell the coffee.  Right now, racing has no better spokesman and cheerleader than Jeff Gural.  Instead of spending their time attacking him every time he makes a comment, I would suggest these horsemen groups and individuals take a step back and look at the state of the industry.   It isn't pretty.

Contrary to what some may feel, a strong industry is not one which races for purses which are 90% slot revenue and 10% wagering handle in front of barren grandstands with a few people standing on the apron.  Just look at Ontario and you see we have an industry on life support, one which will certainly wither or in some cases die when the feeding tube is removed come April, 2013.  Yet, many are content with the status quo, failing to realize at any moment their feeding tube can be squeezed or even pulled by a legislature.

Many talk about how the industry needs to be fixed but few people act.  Jeff Gural acts.  At the Meadowlands, he makes it known people with a question mark on them need not apply to race for they won't be setting foot on the grounds.  He tries to keep the beards out.  In response to complaints from the betting public he tells drivers courtesy tucks and driving in-out are not going to be tolerated.  Instead of lamenting about the myriad of medication rules, he works on getting states to adopt a common standard.  In an effort to stimulate wagering at Tioga Downs, where the horsemen are receptive to change, he cut takeout rates on all wagers in an effort to stimulate wagering.  In an effort to keep stars on the track, stake conditions are modified to keep off-spring of four year old studs out of the races.  Is this a racino operator or a person who cares about the sport?

I understand horsemen groups have a responsibility to protect its members' interests and no one is suggesting they abandon those responsibilities  However, serving the horsemen's interests includes making concessions to ensure there are long term interests for their members to protect.  Jeff Gural also needs to recognize horsemen have valid concerns which need to be considered.  There must be enough common ground where the parties can work together for the betterment of all.

So stop trying to tear Gural down.  Like it or not, right now he is the only person who has the personal reputation to get things done. Referring to Gural as a 'racino operator' diminishes his actual contribution to racing.  He is a supporter of racing first, racino operator last.  It is time to talk of him in this context.


Hambletonian on CBS Sports Network - It has been announced this year's Hambletonian will be shown on CBS Sports Network.

A Sign of the Future; Ontario Sales Price

A press release announcing Harrah's Philadelphia, Meadowlands, and Mohegan Sun at Pocono Downs have agreed to coordinate the scheduling of Opens during the remainder of the Meadowlands meet is certainly welcome news to racing fans and tracks alike. Not only does each track get high quality races, gamblers get races worth wagering on. Perhaps more importantly, it indicates the tracks realize the are merely butting heads against each other by racing at the same time.

It is too soon to say whether or not this cooperation goes any further, but it certainly gives hope for when racing dates are assigned for 2013, perhaps the tracks come up with a schedule which not only coordinates racing dates, but complements each other so the best racing possible is presented. It would be naive to think there will not be any overlap, after all sire stakes races can't be raced early in the year but if racing calendars can be coordinated so you don't have three tracks racing the same night, everyone wins. Even if race dates are not coordinated, it shows the tracks need to work together; an important first step.

The first look at the impact on sales prices in Ontario occurred this past weekend as the 2012 Spring Fling mixed sale was held at Flamboro on Sunday. How did the figures look this year when compared to last year? Let's take a look.

	2011			2012			Difference
	Number Sold	Avg Sales Price	Gross	Number Sold	Avg Sales Price	Gross	Avg Sales Price	Gross
Broodmares	5	$3,840	19,200	0	$0	$0	N/A	N/A
Yearlings	2	$1,050	2,100	1	$700	$700	($350)	($1,400)
Racehorses	92	$6,929	637,500	96	$7,408	$711,200	$479	$73,700
Total	99	$6,655	658,800	97	$7,339	$711,900	$685	$53,100

A Wrong is Righted

The ban against George Brennan driving at the Meadowlands, Tioga Downs, and Vernon Downs has been lifted following a talk between Jeff Gural and the driver Sunday afternoon at Tioga.  The driver assured Gural that his comments were misconstrued and were not an endorsement of cheating.  One controversy is put to rest.

Of course, this was one controversy which did not need to occur.  As operator of these three tracks, Jeff Gural has (and should have) the ability to ban those he feels will harm business, but the fact remains this whole situation could have been avoided if Brennan and Gural had a conversation when Brennan's comments were first published in the New York Times before instituting the ban in the first place.  Harness racing has enough scandals to deal with; we don't need to create any artificially.

Update: Harnesslink which has been on top of this story from the beginning reports Jeff Gural's response regarding the fact other trainers are not being scrutinized as much as Lou Pena as being: “I agree others may also be violating these rules which also needs to be addressed and I intend to do that,”  


Meanwhile, if you have not already caught the action, check out the replays of yesterday's running of the Artiscape Open Mare Pace and the Bettor's Delight Open Pace which were contested at Tioga Downs.

First, the Artiscape Open Mare Pace won by Dreamfair Eternal in a track record 1:49 for aged pacing mares.



Lastly, the Bettor's Delight won by Clear Vision in 1:48.2, one fifth off the overall track record for the pace.