Sunday's Canadian Yearling Sale

Two years ago, under the pall of the announced end of the SARP program, sale averages at the first day of the Canadian Yearling Sale were off a full 50% from the first day in 2011. Last year the second day was eliminated as 47 fewer yearlings hit the sales ring, and buyers and sellers alike approached the venue with an air of trepidation. But, alas, the average was up $1,830 or 18%. And the OSS program has been very successful this year, so many who rejected the pessimism have been rewarded for their faith. A 22% bump at Sunday’s 2014 edition of this bell-wether sale should bode well for the leaner and meaner auctions that will follow in Canada and the US.

The sample is small and drawing too many conclusions from it would be foolhardy. That being said, there is always something to be learned from the way stallions are received at the CYS.

Last year a Sportswriter colt sold for $65,000 at Harrisburg and a filly sold for $62,000 at Lexington; the top colt went for $20,000 at the CYS and the top filly sold for $23,000. Only five sold on Sunday, for an average of $41,000, up from an average of almost $12,000 last year. And Sports Cowboy, a colt out of millionaire Moving Pictures, stretched the field for the mega-star of this year’s OSS program by commanding a $100,000 price.

Kadabra stands for a $15,000 stud fee that is surpassed only by Cantab Hall and Muscle Hill, yet unlike that pair, and all the other stallions in his general price range, he maintains a very low profile on the Grand Circuit. Bee A Magician is an outlier. Yet, Kadabra is second in the overall OSS standings, behind Muscle Mass. In 2011 nineteen Kadabras averaged almost $30,000 at the CYS; 12 averaged $12,800 in 2012; and five averaged $10,800 last year. Do we have a trend? This year the Kadabras were down to two at a $12,000 average. 

Muscle Mass, who is the leading trotting stallion in the OSS program, and maintains eligibility through 2017 in the sophomore class, despite having been relocated to New York for the 2014 season, didn’t have any blockbuster sales, but six colts and four fillies brought a solid average of more than $17,000. This was off last year’s average of $23,000 for thirteen. Ten from that lot were colts and that surely accounts for some of the drop.

Bettor’s Delight, who led all pacing stallions in the NYSS for two and three-year-olds, will have his only Ontario crop hit the track next year. He’ll give Sportswriter a run for his money, but only two sold on Sunday, a colt and a filly for $13,000 each.

The new Western Ideal stallion, Big Jim, who won his division at two in the US and Canada,  received a courteous reception: six fillies and two colts averaged a shade over $13,000, with a colt selling for a high of $29,000 and a filly for $17,000. Future auctions will tell the tale on him.

First year trotting stallion, the fast but unpredictable Manofmanymissions, who won the Breeders Crown, Kentucky Futurity and Stanley Dancer, also received a cordial reception. Nine fillies and four colts averaged $12,500. He sold a $27,000 colt and a $26,000 filly.

Harper Blue Chip has helped raise the profile of 11-year-old Majestic Son. He only sent three through the sale, two colts and a filly, but they averaged almost $27,000.

Shadow Play was another high profile stallion with a slim offering at the CYS. In 2012, nine members of his first crop averaged $11,600, while last year there were only six, but they averaged almost $26,000. There were only two on Sunday, and one of those sold for $4,200. The other one, a filly, brought $22,000.

While the sale was short across the board on the offspring of the better OSS stallions, there was an overabundance of sale average killing colts and fillies by the Astreos stallion, Astronomical. Fifteen of these beauties—ten colts and five fillies—averaged a whopping $2,780. Twelve of them sold for $3,000 or less.

Holiday Road, the full brother to Ken Warkentin, who has exceeded expectations with his first crop, only sold two, a colt for $10,000 and a filly for $7,000.

Old reliable, fifteen-year-old Mach Three, who ranks third behind young upstarts Sportswriter and Shadow Play in the OSS standings, held his own. Last year ten averaged $17,000 while Sunday 11 fillies and four colts averaged about the same. St Lads Moonwalk, a half-brother to Jan It Jackson, brought $47,000.

Another in the old reliable category is 27-year-old Camluck, by far the oldest stallion of either gait still generating top-dollar bids. Rothwell, a full-brother to Mystician, sold for $61,000, the second highest priced yearling at the sale. He is out of the 22-year-old mare, Mystic Mistress. Talk about old blood. Last year Camluck’s top dog at this sale brought $36,000. In 2013 eight of them averaged almost $16,000. Sunday five averaged close to $24,000, courtesy of Mr. Rothwell.

The eight-year-old Western Ideal double millionaire Vintage Master was relocated to New Jersey for the 2014 season, but he had his coming out party at the CYS. Two colts and three fillies averaged $8,900.

Eighteen-year-old Angus Hall, who went from a $29,000 average at this sale in 2011 to a less than $7,000 average the following year, and rebounded to better than $11,000 for 14 last year, held on to his gains. Productive fillies like White Becomes Her and Margie have given him a boost, to the point where he slots third behind Muscle Mass and Kadabra on the OSS leaderboard. Eleven colts and two fillies averaged about $12,700.

North American Cup winner, Up The Credit, a six-year-old dual-duty stallion, sent the initial offering of his first crop to the Canadian Yearling Sale. Four of them—two and two—sold for an average of almost $13,000.

Last year the Badlands Hanover fillies averaged less than $7,000, while the colts averaged almost $18,000. Déjà vu all over again as six fillies and two colts averaged less than $7,500 on Sunday.

Nine sons and daughters of Federal Flex averaged less than $4,200 in 2013; this year three averaged $5,600.

Mister Big, who has given no indication that he’s the next Western Hanover, only had one $4,000 colt go through the sale.

Nine-year-old Windsong Espoir, who stands for $3,500 and plays the middle in the OSS, went from five for a $5,700 average to six for a $9,000 average. Walnut Hall controls him.

Joe FitzGerald

Revisiting the Gural Rule

Jay Bergman argues for the end of the rule which requires 4yo horses to return to the track in order for Father Patrick, the trotting Niatross, to head to the breeding shed after this season.  While the so-called 'Gural Rule' making the off-spring of four year old stallions ineligible to the major stakes is meant to get the sophomore stars to return for at least one more season is to be reviewed this year, Bergman indicates it is necessary to get Father Patrick in the breeding shed in order for him to continue the Cantab Hall line.

Make no mistake, the returning three year old stars for the most part have been disappointing on the track, perhaps not surprisingly as it takes time for horses to get acclimated to racing against the best (look at Sweet Lou).  My personal feeling is the Gural Rule needs to be modified, not scrapped as we need to get older horses to remain on the track.  My proposal would have the rule involve four and five year olds.  As Bergman mentioned, what fans and horsemen are are talking about are the veterans Sebastian K and Commander Crowe, not other horses.  This is not surprising since in the trotting ranks, the older horses have historically been the ones which do the best.

There is one problem with Bergman's idea to scrap the Gural Rule.  If the stars are allowed to retire after their sophomore campaign, you aren't going to get those older horses.  We can't expect Europe to send over their top horses annually; this year is a fluke.  We need to depend on our own domestic horses to become stars and they can't become stars if they are residing in the breeding shed.  Rather than scraping the rule, it needs to be modified and there needs to be more racing opportunities for the four and five year olds so it pays to keep them racing.

With regards to racing, I propose we redefine Junior Free for All (JFA) to represent the top four and five year olds racing, where FFAs would be for the top horses regardless of age.  Overnight  and stake races can be created for the JFA so there are racing opportunities for them.  If we can not provide sufficient racing opportunities to make it financially attractive for these horses to race as four and five year olds, then the rule needs to be scrapped.

At the same time, we need is to encourage horses to breed and race, not do one or the other.  For example, at the end of this season, Sebsastian K will be heading for the breeding shed prior to returning for his nine year old campaign.  Why not allow the four and five year olds to breed and race at the same time without penalty?  This way, syndicates can recover part of their investment by racing and breeding, as we keep the stars racing at the same time.

The first argument regarding the current and future (if adopted) rule is owners should be able to do what they want with their horses.  Normally I would agree, but these horses have been purchased knowing the Gural Rule is in effect so they are aware of the 'restrictions' prior to purchasing.  

Some would argue having these horses race past their three year old careers put their value at risk.   Perhaps it is true, especially when you look at this year's class of four year olds but maybe the problem is not the fact the horses are still racing, but these horses may have been precocious when racing against their own age, but quite ordinary when racing against unrestricted company.  However, being necessary to race as five year olds, they will have the opportunity to show it was just a case of having to catch up to the older horses ala Sweet Lou.


Captaintreacherous will not be appearing at Delaware this year after all.  Earlier plans had the Captain racing in the Winbak Pace but it is clear something is not right with the Captain and that is confirmed with news that trainer Tony Alagna is still running blood tests in an effort to see what is wrong with the champion horse. When dealing with horses, sometimes the best laid plans will go awry.


Jug 2014 is not in the books but you can win a VIP experience to 2015's LBJ courtesy of Jug sponsor Fazoli's by entering Pick the Jug Winner .  The contest involves picking the ultimate Jug winner as well as earning the most money based on your fictional selections in race 9-18.


While there was no thoroughbred racing this year, the 2015 standardbred meet begins this Wednesday at Colonial Downs for a stand which ends on October 26.  With the meet starting on Jugette Day, one must wonder why the New Kent, Virginia track is not offering a promotion cross-tying the fist two days with the Delaware County Fair, such as alternating races and promoting the Jugette and Jug.

Sunday Morning Review

You know fall is in the air when Tioga Downs closes for the season, the Canadian Trotting Classic is contested, and Jug week is upon us.

The Canadian Trotting Classic was won by Father Patrick, the horse who will be the 3yo trotter of the year.  I would like to say the race was contested but let's face it, Father Patrick is heads above the others in his crop.  There is only two ways Father Patrick gets defeated; he defeats himself with a costly break as he did in the Hambletonian or sickness takes hold of him.  Neither is very likely.  At the betting window, the CTC shows me it is foolish to bet against him at the windows (and I tried last night playing second place finisher E L Titan).  If I ran the racetracks he will still compete at this year, I would bar Patrick from wagering so there would be better options (and payoffs) for the gambler.




Meanwhile at Delaware, a field of 23 fillies dropped in the box for the Jugette, resulting in three elimination races while 16 colts dropped in the box for the Little Brown Jug resulting in two tilts in the first elimination.  For those who desire a little early action, off-track there is the second Jug future wager while at Delaware, there is an additional future wager which consists of a Jugette-Jug Daily Double (Race 3 is the Jug future wager program page).

Can Mcwicked have it any easier, drawing the rail in the second heat of the first elimination of the Little Brown Jug?  It's not a slam-dunk as He's Watching is versatile and has the potential to make the race interesting, but the rail at Delaware certainly makes things easier for Mcwicked.

While Delaware is racing today, as usual there will be no simulcasting of the early cards of the Delaware meet.


Last night at Mohawk, in addition to the Canadian Trotting Classic was a non-wagering $15,000 RUS event.  While the original plans were for the race to have wagering, it ended up as a non-wagering event.  I must confess, the start was not good with a few horses far off the gate but the race had an exciting finish as Radical Dreamer (ridden by Marit Valstad) held off a stretch charge by Smarty Pants ridden by Riina Rekilia.

Skipper Rules the Jug

Fifty-four of the 68 winners of the Little Brown Jug go back to Hal Dale. Two of those, Keystoner and Good Time, were his sons, while all the rest are linked to either his son Adios or his grandson Meadow Skipper, neither of whom won the Jug. Adios, who was born in 1940, pre-dated the race, which started in 1946. Meadow Skipper did participate, but he was parked most of the mile in the 1963 final and finished third to Overtrick, who set an all-age world record of 1:57.1.

While Adios, who was twenty years older than Skipper, got a head start; eight sons and a grandson—Romeo Hanover—of Adios had won editions of the Jug before the principal of Skipper’s first crop, Most Happy Fella, won in 1970. Meadow Skipper certainly made up for lost time. Thirty-four of 43 Jugs since 1970 have been won by sons or other descendants of his—that’s about 80%. The only gap larger than one year during that run was the three year stretch at the beginning of the run, between 1971 and 1974, when Nansemond, Strike Out, Melvin’s Woe and Airliner were victorious. Between Hot Hitter’s win in 1979 and Abercrombie’s in 1993, there was a 13 year dry spell for Adios and any other progenitor not named Meadow Skipper. The last Adios line colt to win the Jug was Real Desire in 2007.

Beyond his own failure to win the Little Brown Jug, Skipper’s prolific band of sons, grandsons and great grandsons, as successful as they have been at producing Jug winners,  have a spotty record when it comes to winning the race. Yes, Most Happy Fella, Niatross and Bettor’s Delight won, but the list of Skipper’s descendants who produced winners but didn’t win it themselves is much longer: Cam Fella, Western Hanover, Falcon Almahurst, Western Ideal, No Nukes, Cam’s Card Shark, Rocknroll Hanover, The Panderosa, Tyler B, French Chef, Oil Burner, Tyler’s Mark….

While Adios had nine sons win the Jug, Meadow Skipper only had four. The difference is that while Adios only got four from his greatest son Bret Hanover and three via his great grandson Abercrombie, Skipper got twenty from the Most Happy Fella branch, eleven of those from the Cam Fella artery, and seven through Albatross.  

Since the turn of the century only three Adios Line colts have won the Jug—Astreos, Mr Feelgood and Real Desire—and none of those victories have come in the last six years. The other dozen were won by Skipper line stallions.

This year’s Jug may prove to be a game changer, and there are a couple of ways that can happen. The field won’t be drawn until Saturday, but in his latest edition of Road to the Little Brown Jug, Delaware PR man Jay Wolf rates McWicked as the top contender. He, of course, is from the Adios line, being a son of McArdle, who has been keeping the Bret Hanover artery on life support in recent years. McArdle’s daddy, Falcon Seelster, wasn’t in the Jug, although he did set a world record of 1:51 at Delaware as a sophomore on Jug Day 1985. The call of that race by Roger Huston trumped the Jug itself, where Nihilator won in a time that was more than a second slower. A win by McWicked would prevent a seven race losing streak by Team Adios.

Another way in which the 2014 Jug could be a game changer would be a win by a son of Somebeachsomewhere. Jay lists four possibilities on his Top Ten list: Ron Burke’s Limelight Beach, who just finished second to McWicked in the $260,000 PASS Championship Final; Jimmy Takter’s Cane winner, Lyonssomewhere; Bob McIntosh’s gelding, Somewhere In LA, who finished third to McWicked in the PASS Final; or Brent MacGrath’s Melmerby Beach, who won a split of the Simcoe over the weekend. This would represent a dramatic change because no member of the line running from Volomite through Sampson Hanover has ever won the Little Brown Jug, and no top line descendant of Volomite has won in 38 years, since Stanley Dancer’s Keystone Ore beat Joe O’Brien’s Armbro Ranger in 1976. The other two winners going back to Volomite are Overtrick in 1963 and Rum Customer in 1968.

SBSW skipped the Jug, and last year Captaintreacherous, the star of his first crop, did the same. There may be no Jug winners on the branch he is now the figurehead for, coming down from his great, great, great grandsire Sampson Hanover, but that one was very handy on a half. In September, 1951, 4-year-old Sampson Hanover, who was converted from the trot as a three-year-old, became the first pacer or trotter to win a race in under two minutes on a half mile track. He accomplished that historic fete in the Almahurst Pace at Delaware, Ohio.

So, we have the inspiration of Sampson Hanover’s Delaware heroics for the sons of SBSW and for McWicked his granddaddy Falcon Seelster’s world record mile over that track and his great granddaddy Bret Hanover’s world record of 1:57 in the Jug. Either way, it’s time for a colt not tied to Meadow Skipper to step up and take the prize. He’s Watching is quick as a cat around those turns and his pilot Tim Tetrick is no slouch. It won’t be easy, but it’s about that time.

Joe FitzGerald

 

 

The Burke Invitational

This Monday, the Bobby Quillen Memorial Pace will be contested at Harrington Raceway.  The Quillen, as one person noted was named "... to celebrate the passing of one of the main legislators who pushed the slots through for the Delaware horsemen. In his honor they have 3 new Jersey horses, and 5 Pennsylvania horses from one trainer. Probably not his vision".

Most definitely not the vision Quillen had.  A total of three trainers have horses in the race.  The Burke stable has five horses in the race, Linda Toscano has two, and the lone wolf, Nick Surik starts one horse in the race.  Now to be perfectly fair, these trainers sent horses to race in the eliminations and they qualified for the final so you can certainly say they did nothing wrong, but if nothing else, races like the Quillen are indicative of a problem for harness racing, especially when 62.5% of the field comes from one trainer.

The question is what does one do about the situation?  The obvious thing to do would be limit the number of starters a trainer gets to start in the eliminations to ensure you don't get too many horses from one barn to start in the race.  Now realizing these super trainers get a lot of horses, so the rule can be modified to limit a trainer to no more than two horses from the same ownership group.  Trainers need to learn to pick and choose where their horses will start, not just flood the entry box with all their 'A' listers.

Of course, the problem with limiting the number of starters in a race may be a reduction in stakes payments for a race, resulting in reduced purses.

To tell you the truth, I don't know the answer to this problem.  What I do know is when five horses in a stakes race come from one barn, there is a problem; a problem which needs to be addressed.