September Potpourri

While I am away, VFTRG contributor Joe F., offers his observations on various topics this early September day.

It looks like the Quillen won’t be as bad as last year when a five-horse field was all they could conjure up. Cheddar dominated with a record mile as the 1/2 favorite while Foiled Again, who had won the previous two editions, finished second at 8/5. 

This time around there are two short elimination fields featuring Foiled, third in the CPD final as well as his elimination; Michaels Power, who seems to be regaining his form of last year; Clear Vision, who just finished second in the CPD; and Gold Cup & Saucer winner, Escape The News. Heston Blue Chip, who has wandered off the path laid out for him by Ken Jacobs and Linda Toscano, is also entered.

Burke has been a big supporter of this race, sending Foiled, Clear Vision, Atochia and Won The West to Harrington during the last few years. He has been handsomely rewarded for that support, too.

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Casie Coleman has Vegas Vacation and Lucan Hanover racing back in Saturday’s Simcoe, after competing in the Cane five days earlier. The Captain is also staked to that race but will apparently be resting until his non-appearance in the Jug. Wake Up Peter, the Captain’s companion, is not eligible to the Simcoe, although this is the sort of race where he could thrive. Odds On Equuleus, new to the Alagna barn, isn’t staked to the Simcoe either. Looking forward to seeing Vegas and Sunshine Beach test each other in one split and Fool Me Once and Lucan in the other.

Four of the Captain’s seven wins this year are by less than a length and he has a nose loss to Sunshine Beach. Trainer Tony Alagna and handler Myron Bell keep preaching the company line that this is the sort of colt that only goes enough to win, and no more. The loss in the Battle was a very strong effort and Monday’s Cane win was the same, but this is a weak sophomore class so I think we need to see more. The Meadowlands is dark but that hasn’t stopped Team Gural from working themselves into a frenzy over Captaintreacherous, and most of those at HRU and DRF are also giddy over the colt. In his post Cane interview Justin Horowitz asked Myron Bell to slot the colt historically, a task Bell was too smart to tackle. Yeah, he’s right behind SBSW, ahead of Niatross, Albatross and Bret. I have no interest in being the skunk at the garden party (yes I do) but I’ll be convinced when The Captain overcomes a bad draw during his non-appearance in Delaware. Yes, when he gets stuck with the eight post in the first heat and simply circles the field, then I’ll know he’s an all-time great.

For the sophomore pacers, in the open realm, it’s the Simcoe this weekend, the Jug on the 19^th and Lexington at the end of September, beginning of October. However, the sire stakes finals for programs like Pennsylvania and New York present a dilemma for some. The PA Stallion Series final is Saturday at The Meadows. Ron Burke’s talented Ultimate Beachboy is eligible for that. He certainly impressed while winning the Battle consolation II and in his subsequent start at Pocono. The PASS top tier final is a week from Friday at The Meadows. These colts may have  to choose between this race or the Jug but none of the top ten point getters would be much of a threat in Ohio anyway. Fool Me Once tops the points list for the NYSS final at Yonkers on September 25. He could have been a player in the Jug but he isn’t eligible. The speedy Art Major colt is staked to the Bluegrass and Tattersalls.  The NYSS final is the same day as the Bluegrass, which he’s eligible to, but he can race in the Tattersalls the following week, if that’s the plan.

Not sure what Team Treacherous will do with their charge if he skips the Jug. There are 26 days between the Cane and the Bluegrass. Maybe they could bring him to Delaware and have him lead the post parade, let folks get a look at him. Vegas, Lucan, Sunfire and most of the rest are staked to the Jug and will probably race in it. 

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Here Comes William, the Dragon Again colt who won the Metro consolation at 7/1 for Pierce the other night, drew the two in the Stallion Series two-year-old final at Pocono on Friday.

Somwherovrarainbow tried the Lynch and the Valley Forge, but most of her starts have involved beating up on the PASS set. It’s a little unusual for the Dan Patch winner to be transformed into a SS filly, but she’s the leading point getter in her division and will probably face Nikki Beach, Charisma and Novascotia Hanover a week from Friday in the final.

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San Pail qualified last week and Goo went his second qualifier Tuesday. What will this lead to? The Credit Winner is Friday and they won’t make that. San Pail is staked to the Allerage, a month from now, and I guess that’s a possibility, then there’s the BC at Pocono. Goo isn’t staked to the Allerage, although he can be supplemented to it, and then it would be on to the BC. Odd ducks managing both of them so who knows what will happen.

The Credit Winner, which is Friday at Vernon, should be a good race. The top five in the division, Sevruga, Market Share, Intimidate, Herbie and Wishing Stone are all entered. Do you burn a nasty pace and try to take something out of Intimidate before he hits the stretch, or do you back it down and make him outkick you? Same dilemma Frank Ervin wrestled with whenever Bret faced Vic.

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Casie Coleman’s Dragon Again filly, Scandalous Hanover, was supplemented to Monday’s Shady Daisy and won. The purse was $122,000 and the supplemental penalty was only $7,500. (entry fees are also involved.) That amounts to about 6% of the purse, which is half of what most races charge. 

This seems to be the trend. A few years ago Rocknroll Heaven’s connections paid $60,000 to supplement him to the Messenger. This year that would cost half as much, or about 6% of the $450,000 purse. The BC and Allerage races, among others, are still up in the 11 or 12% range, but things are changing. Good thing or bad? It depends on who you ask. Two-year-old races are still disinclined to allow folks to buy in.

The folks at Yonkers have also made it cheaper to stake a colt to the Messenger or a filly to the Lady Maud, and the results are very encouraging. Last year there were 26 colts and 39 fillies nominated to these races, while this year there are 66 colts and 71 fillies staked to them. Could the Messenger be the final piece in a Triple Crown bid by Captaintreacherous? Unlikely. He isn’t eligible and probably won’t start in the Jug either….Nitelife is not staked to the Lady Maud.

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The Canadian Sportsman’s Dream Stable contest, which entails choosing six two-year-olds and four Three-year-olds in the spring and trying to out-earn everyone else, is very popular, drawing several hundred entries annually. Having Captaintreacherous in one’s stable offers a big edge this year. In fact, as of the latest count, which was prior to this past weekend, there are only six players in the top 100 who do not have The Captain in their stable. Going further, there is only one in the top 80 without him. That individual, who is defying the odds in a serious way, is Jim Fielding. He’s making up for his lack of The Captain’s earnings, which outpace Bee’s by more than $482,000, with Father Patrick, Somwherovrarainbow, Bee A Magician, Sunfire Blue Chip, Corky and Ali Blue. Give this man a prize right now. Wow!

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He’s Watching, the $3,000 American Ideal bargain, and Melmerby Beach, Brent MacGrath’s green SBSW colt, are the buzz kids of the freshman pacing division. In the process of vacuuming up piles of NYSS loot, He’s Watching broke Heston Blue Chip’s mark at Buffalo, knocked a full second off the Vernon Downs standard for two-year-old pacers and set a WR at Tioga. Unfortunately he isn’t staked to anything, not even the BC, which doesn’t allow freshmen to buy their way in. Melmerby Beach has been racing in the more modest confines of Nova Scotia, but in his first start at Mohawk the other night for Paul MacDonnell, he cruised to a seven length :52.4 win that portends big things down the road. He is staked to the BC, but not the Governor’s Cup.

Muscle Hill and Credit Winner - Advance Preview

Vernon Downs hosts Friday evening the $202,000 Muscle Hill (Race 10) and the $214,000 Credit Winner (Race 11) for Open Trotters (the Muscle Hill is for mares).  In a way these races are being lost on a Friday night as races of this quality should be held on a Saturday night.  That being said, the schedule is the schedule so the big action for trotters occurs on Friday evening.

One thing I always wonder is when you have two stakes races back to back, why don't tracks schedule a Daily Double for those two races?  It seems like a natural to me.

Anyway, let's take an early look at these races.  Note this analysis takes place before scratch time so odds are not available and there will be some driving changes.

10th Trot - $202,000 Muscle Hill - Open Mares
   1 -  Maven (Gingras, pp 6) - She's been virtually unstoppable this year (8-6-1-0).  She just needs the trip to be a threat here.
1A -  D'Orsay (Callahan, pp 9) - Occasionally throws in a good effort, but this field may be a challenge.  Definitely the weaker half off the entry. 
   2 -  Beatgoeson Hanover (D Miller, pp 1) - Solid overnight horse who seems to always come up short in the big money events.  Expect the same here.
   3 -  Intense America (Tetrick, pp 2) - Has shown little in stakes company.  Expect Tetrick to choose off this mare.
   4 -  Pembroke Heat Wave (Sears, pp 3) - Should be a little tighter and gets Sears.  May be able to land share at best.
   5 -  Cedar Dove (Pierce, pp 4) -  Has been a disappointment to me all year.  Has the potential to do more.  Perhaps this is the week?  Willing to look at odds.
   7 -  Personal Style (A Miller, pp 7) - Recent form says she is up against it this week.  Will pass.
   8 -  Bax Of Life (Campbell, pp 8) - Toss last start.  If this one can work out a trip, may be a factor.
   9 -  Check Me Out (Tetrick, pp 10) - Has not repeated last year's accomplishments.  From the second tier, I think it will be another disappointing start.
AE -  Uncommon Night (Morrill, AE1) -A toss if she gets in; plain and simple
AE -  China Pearls (Waples, AE2) - Could be interesting if she draws in on and gets an inner post.

Early Play:  Maven is the obvious choice here.  There will be no value in the win pool; the key is exotics.  Looking to key Maven with Pembroke Heat Wave, Cedar Dove, and Bax of Life.

Longshot Play:  If you get 10-1, Cedar Dove is worth consideration.


11th Trot - $214,000 Credit Winner - Open Trot
   1 - My MVP (Callahan, pp 2) -  Riding two race win streak, defeating stablemate in last start.  Part of formidable entry.
1A - Market Share (Tetrick, pp 3) -  Maple Leaf Trot winner appears to have tailed off.  Will he rebound with the money on the line?   
1B - Wishing Stone (Gingras, pp 5) -  Winner of Open at YR has not been able to compete recently with the best but note he won the Maxie Lee.  Completes entry.
   2 - Arch Madness (TBA, pp 1) -  Not the same horse as in the past.  Finally won against local talent.  A step below these in current form.
   3 - Sevruga (A Miller, pp 4) - Has quietly been challenging at this level.  Needs to be up close to contend.  Don't ignore.
   4 - Guccio (Takter, pp 6) -  Early season sensation seems to be up against it here.
   5 - Intimidate (Pierce, pp 7) - 2012 BC Champion begins season in earnest.  Worth a serious look.
   6 - Mister Herbie (Jamieson, pp 8) - This horse loves to finish second.  Include in exotics.

Early Play - He was missing a long part of the season but Intimidate is looking to make his run for this year's Breeders Crown.  Should be able to get good odds.  While others can make their case to win, you can find knocks.    If looking at exotics, include Intimidate, Mister Herbie and the entry.

Not Yet Dead

Plainridge is not dead yet.  Penn National Gaming has secured an option to buy Plainridge Racecourse which if the state allows it will solve the problem of ownership not being qualified for a gaming license, putting Plainridge back in the game.. 

Residents of Plainville will be voting next Tuesday whether or not they are agreeable to having a slot parlor in their town.

Racing Tough and a Victory for the Little Guy

Have you ever thought harness racing has gotten too much like golf, being a gentleman's game?  If so, you would have loved Sunday's Shady Daisy and Cane Pace at Tioga Downs.

In the Shady Daisy Nikki Beach played some good old fashioned hard ball, refusing to give up the lead (until he ran out of steam).  Don't get me wrong, that move cost me any chance to collect on the race, but these days stakes races are too often raced like the win is already conceded before the race begins and turn into snooze fests.



Maybe if we raced the old fashioned way of racing tough, more people would be interested in the game.


What more can you say about Captaintreacherous?  The line couldn't come fast enough in the Cane Pace for the 'Captain.  While the 'Captain went wire to wire, he had to win the race the old fashioned way, he earned it thanks to the constant pressure of Varadero Hanover for the first half mile of the race.  No letting the Captain get away with an easy mile.  Yes, the 'Captain was fortunate to have the rail during the duel but even with the rail he had to fight of a swarm in the stretch to win in 1:49.2, giving the fans a race to remember.





Based on this and earlier performances, they may as well start engraving Captaintreacherous' name on the end of year hardware right now. 


Chalk one up for the little guy.  Jimmy Marohn Jr, leading driver at Tioga Downs,. took advantage of being able to choose his mount in the last leg of the annual Drivers Challenge and it worked out for him as Marohn won the last leg of the contest, giving him the the overall contest title earning a cool $25,000 (he won $10,000 for taking the first leg of the contest at Vernon Downs last week), defeating Brian Sears and Tim Tetrick among other top money earner drivers in the nation.

Granted, it was only one competition but it is interesting to note in a contest where the trainers didn't get to pick the driver, the little guy came out on top.  Make no mistake, to compete in the top tier of racing a driver must have talent, but it also goes to show you there are some darn good drivers racing outside of the limelight who by choice or luck don't get to shine because trainers don't give them the opportunity.

The Rules Have Changed? Change Your Own Rules.

You may have noticed some horses racing at your local track which seemingly race without qualifying when they raced last more than thirty days ago.  At first you may think it is is mistake.  Then if you saw the condition sheets, you may have noticed your local track (with the permission of the state's racing commission) has extended the 30 day rule to 45 days meaning as long as a horse has a clean line which meets the track's qualifying standards, they get to race.

What gives?  Part of the change is the result of the horse shortage, by giving horses 45 days before having to re-qualify instead of 30 days, it increases the horse population a local track may draw from.  Part of the change seems to be related to horses (in particular FFA trotters) racing more like thoroughbreds than standardbreds.

As with many rule changs these days, the changes are for the benefi of  owners and trainers, not the gambler.  By expanding the qualifying window by 15 days, a horse which  is laid off between 31-45 days can start in a wagering event and possibly earn some money instead of losing a week racing because they have to race in a qualifier without earning potential.

To be fair, more horses seem to be live off of layoffs than they did before.  You can no longer have a hard and fast rule eliminating horses who haven't raced thirty or more days ago due to a change in training methods.  Another reason is horses are training down on farm tracks going as fast as they would in qualifiers, we just don’t see these races and an industry which is operating with the goal of minimizing expenses seemingly is not willing to incur more expenses so forget about having clockers timing workouts on farm/training facility tracks so they can be printed on the bottom of past performance lines as is done with the thoroughbreds.  Hence, the gambler is left to guess to some extent, watching the board to see if a horse is live or not.

The bottom line is the horse player needs to recognize the game has changed and adopt their handicapping rules or they need to sit out more races.  If you find it is too hard to figure out present form at the start of a race meet where many horses are coming off long layoffs, your only option may be to avoid playing the track until most horses have the opportunity to race at least two times so you are not looking at races where many horses have been off; you may encounter one or two horses which have been away instead of four or five.

Remember, it is your money.  just as the qualifying rules have changed to benefit the horse owner, you have the opportunity to change your own gambling rules to benefit you.  Lay off that track.  With ADW wagering, you can certainly find a race meet in progress where you  can wager on races with most horses showing current form if you don't want to guess