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Thursday, November 28, 2013

Why Pet Rock Gets No Respect; Why The Captain Wins the TVG FFA Final

The big question is can Captaintreacherous beat the older horses such as Foiled Again?  Some people are wondering why Pet Rock is not getting any respect.  Yes, there is an East Coast bias but my take on this is Pet Rock is age 4.  Foiled Again is age 9.  No, he is not as dominant as he once was but how many 9 year olds racing against the best horses is going to be as dominant.  It would be as if he was Smoken Up NZ who won the Miracle Mile in Australia at ages 7 and 8) or Ideal du Gazeau from France (who won his second Prix d' Amerique at age 9).  You expect a horse like Pet Rock to improve, you don't expect a horse like Foiled Again to hold his own against FFA company; this is why he gets the attention.


So you know doubt have seen the campaign about who you like #TheCaptain vs. #FoiledAgain.  From what you see above you can see some will say #PetRock.  So the question to be asked is who do I like?  Well, I have to say I like Foiled Again as the veteran keeps on kicking but who do I think is going to win?  I would have to go with Captaintreacherous.  Yes, this goes against the general rule of a three year old having no chance against older horses at the top levels and if you look at claiming races, the three year olds get a higher claiming allowance for that reason.

So what makes me pick The Captain?  The number of starts.  Trainer Tony Alagna has carefully managed the horse through his campaign.  While he took crticism for bypassing the Jug, the fact is Captaintreacherous comes into this race with a total of 15 parimutuel starts.   Foiled Again enters this race with 28 starts this year, Pet Rock comes in with 17 starts.  Other than Bettor's Edge and Bolt The Duer which most people will discount, all the other FFAllers have at least 20 starts on the card.  Hence, while The Captain lacks the experience racing against older horses, he has freshness on his side. That freshness may be the difference between victory or defeat.

Overall, my selections for the Superfecta will be Captaintreacherous, Pet Rock, Warrawee Needy, and Foiled Again.  I will discuss the rest of the card in a future post.

 

Mark December 12 on your calendar.  That is the day the #1 driver in dashes won nationally, Ronnie Wrenn Jr. will have a face-off with #3 driver Bruce Aldrich Jr.  In this contest there will be a coin test for which driver will get the first pick of a horse in race #1 with the other driver picking second.  Starting in the 2nd race, Aldrich will have first pick with Wrenn having first pick in the following race and then alternating between the two drivers.

This should be an interesting contest and I look forward to seeing it.  The only thing which would make it better is if the #2 dash winning driver, Dave Palone would join the competition.  If you have the chance, make sure you tune in or head to the track.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

The miracle mile is in Australia not New Zealand

Blaine said...

I'd be very surprised if Pet Rock doesn't win the TVG FFA Pace. He's faster than the competition and more versatile. There's something about the new configuration that makes a second over trip look kinda different. Golden Receiver will determine the 1/2 mile fractions. If it's in the 54 range, he might be there until deep in the lane. If its in the 53 or God forbid 52 range, then the trip gets the money....And because of said versatility, Pet Rock is your winner because heading up the new backside, Dave Miller will either brush or flush cover. Sweet Lou will attempt to tow Foiled Again. Captaintreacherous' only way to win is off a cover trip. Warrawee Needy puzzles me. He's been 2nd over in the BC, Am-Nat and last week and has 0 wins to show for it. I see a longshot finishing in the exacta. More to come.....

edge1124 said...

Pacingguy did say it was in Australia...I think you got confused by the horse's name Smoken Up NZ (NZ to show horse was bred in NZ).

I think this is a great idea for 2 driver's to battle it out and normally one would think since they get to choose their drives, there would probably be 6 or 7 races out of 13 where the exactor is going to be Aldrich/Wrenn but since Bruce has home field advantage I am guessing there might be a few races where the gang doesn't let Wrenn get the lead too easy or go first over on him sooner than normal, so I will predict 3 exactors of Bruce and Ronnie...should be fun to watch.

Pacingguy said...

Blaine, you may very well be right. My only problem is your analysis about the new track configuration. Sure, the track has changed but I don't know how we can make firm decisions about the track after one day of racing.

Blaine said...

Pacingguy, it has to do with homestretch and the headwinds the horse's have to deal with now. With the old configuration horses tipping off cover did so with the wind at their back. That is no longer the case. My analysis really wasn't about track bias given the one day of racing....

Pacingguy said...

Blaine, I stand corrected. I thought you were including other factors such as the banking on the one turn being changed. That we don't know for sure how it will play out.