However, we do have VFTRG's guest handicapper Daryl on board with his take on the Breeders Crown. Daryl provides us with his four 'Night Makers' and talks about the necessity of watching the replays; multiple times to be successful.
Without further ado, here is Daryl's blog entry.
Hello again, first off, I'd like to thank Pacingguy for asking me if I'd like another shot at the BC. This time around I'd like to change the approach. Rather than list 3 or 4 horses I like in each race and you'll probably forget by race time, I'm going to mention some horses I think might make an impact at higher odds due to troubled trips last week.
It's here I make it clear how important it is to watch races.....at least twice. Most serious gamblers know how important it is but for those just starting out, it's imperative you watch races and take trip notes for the following week. Reading a program doesn't come close to telling the whole story and never will. It doesn't matter how many figures you look at, they will never tell if a horse was blocked with pace (unless there's some trip notes in 3 words or less attached to each race line).
Warning, the majority of last Saturday's eliminations were hampered by some stiff winds on the backstretch that caused some unusually slow second quarters followed up by some really fast third quarters according to the drivers. If the weather behaves, this won't happen Saturday. Quarter moves will be happening frequently, the question is, can they last 5/8's of a mile on the lead?
Just one more item I'd like to mention. As much as I love watching good horses beat each other up on the racetrack, I dislike wagering on "super" nights if you will. There's probably 15-20 must see days/nights of racing a year (my girlfriend will say more). Usually you'll find short prices rule the day with a couple of longshots sprinkled in there once in a while. It's these little few and far between gems I'm looking for on Breeder's Crown night. You don't have to bet every race to be successful, it's usually the other way around.
You've heard of "day makers" before if you're a fan of HRTV, well, I'm going for a few night makers Saturday:
Maker #1? In the first race, Autumn Escapade has several angles going for her I like to see. First, she's fresh. With a Q and a tightener since September 22, she should be much tighter for this effort. Second, she showed good effort on both ends of her mile last week after getting shuffled some. It's always a positive sign since Woodbine tends to be a speed favoring track most of the time. You need to be up close at the head of the stretch unless they're smokin' on the front end and they come back to the rest of pack. Lastly, Dave Miller owns and his wife Misty is listed as trainer. Last year, Dave was one of those that missed BC night due to the weather in the east so maybe that's added motivation. She did finish third in last years edition at Woodbine after leaving hard from a worse post. Also in last year's race, directly to her outside was Frenchfrysnvinegar and she won the race. Does Dave turn the tables? A win here will make up for a very disappointing year and make her a millionaire, if that's not an incentive, I don't know what one is. Come on Dave, let's find her one more good trip. It's a little stretch but....it's a horse race.
Maker #2? How about Rockin Amadeus in the seventh race? If this bad boy can hit the board, it should be at a juicy price. Everybody's choice for 2yo pacer of the year will be tough to beat. A much improved post should conserve some energy for the stretch run. Last week he got shuffled a bit after leaving hard and found some room late with a little sneaky pace. The last quarter was HOT! In a race where everybody would like a two hole trip behind the Captain, Rockin could be the one. Where's Odds On Equuleus? It's a big stretch but....it's a horse race.
Maker #3? Not Yannick again, in the ninth race. Either he knew what he was doing or was shocked last week with Escape The News because he ended up with a lap full of horse with nowhere to go when the leaders collapsed. I think it was the latter since he's always been in the bottom half of 3yo colt and gelding category all year. ETN will have to run faster than he ever has before but he's trained by Burke. He can crank them up with the best of them. This race should be a war. It's a very large stretch but....it's a horse race.
Maker #4 I wish this horse wasn't racing in the tenth race but we have no choice. Disclaimer...I'm not a big fan of Krispy Apple by any stretch but you have to call like you see them. Krispy was blocked with a ton last week and went on by after with plenty of pace. The fractions were faster, not slower, as the race went on but company was much cheaper. Timmy T had to go with his favorite older mare Anndrovette and I don't blame him. She's proven herself over and over again, unlike Krispy who shows up once in a while, rarely against the best in class. She has to get involved early on again like last week. If she does leave, I'll expect a big effort late. I don't think Dave Miller has ever driven her? It doesn't matter, the word should be all systems go and go shock the world. It's a huge stretch but....it's a horse race.
It's a stretch but....it's a horse race. I suggest you watch the replays of the above horses, from last weekend's races, at woodbineentertainment.com, they're easy to find and free. If you see what I saw, jump on board. Maybe you'll find another gem or we'll both get lucky.
Good luck to everyone involved in this year's BC. I hope the drivers can take time out of their busy schedules to make it this year. The "rare" storm isn't expected until early next week so we should be ok, I hope so.
P.S. If I strike out Saturday, there's always Warrawee Needy in his next start to make amends. It's a stretch but....it's a horse race.