For photos from the Meadowlands contact Lisaphoto@playmeadowlands.com

Thursday, August 2, 2012

Hambletonian Day Analysis and a First

Here is my analysis for Hambletonian Day at the Meadowlands.  With most of the races being stakes races, the racing should be well contested.  It will be as always, a question of finding value, because playing the morning line favorites will almost certainly lead you to a losing afternoon as some of them will win way overbet, some will naturally go down to defeat.  With the purses being high expect plenty of movement in the races and as long as the day stays dry we may be seeing some records.

For your convenience, I have noted which races have guaranteed pools as well as denoted the Meadowlands will have their typical Hambletonian Oaks-Hambletonian Daily Double.  Also note if you have yet to try the Super High Five, Hambletonian Day is the day to give it a shot as the Meadowlands offers a 5% takeout in the last race.

In what is likely a first in North America,  I have handicapped the racing under saddle (RUS) race and listed it here.  There is no wagering on the race, but here is my chance to bat 1.000 in my RUS handicapping.  I hope you enjoy the race as you have a world record horse  (Armbro Doyle),  the number one rider in Norway (Malin Beeras) riding a horse the trainer said will be going for the world record, a provisional driver (Karen Isbell) who is a former jockey, and the unknown horse ridden by a rider (Helene Gregory) who in her first two starts shows she can ride, leading the previously referenced Armbro Doyle to his world record effort at Pocono Downs, so there are plenty of interesting stories to follow in this race.

As a note, this will be my last blog entry until Sunday or Monday.

1st Trot - $30,000; Duenna - 3yo Fillies (1st Division) - Start $25,000 Gtd Pool Pick 5  Post Time: Noon
  1  On The BrightSide (Palone, 3-1) - Toss last.  Good chance for victory with big girls missing. 
  2  Talbotcreek Jewely (Tetrick, 8-1) - Been racing well.  Steps up in class.
  3  Whimzical Britt (Sears, 10-1) - Returns to take on open company.  This field may be slightly tougher.
  4  Southwind Moni (Dube, 12-1) - Stakes winner put in good effort in high level conditioned last; factor.
  5  Aunt Mel (A Miller, 6-1) - Winner of two straight.  May try to go wire-to-wire.
  6  Blue Yonder (Gingras, 15-1) - Still looking for first win of season.  Pass.
  7  Chocolatta De Vie (Callahan, 12-1) - Winner of last returns to level which may be too deep.
  8  Riverfest (D Miller, 9-2) - Been away almost a month.  Tab for later.
  9  Delicious (Pierce, 10-1) - Not sure she can get involved from out here.
10  Oasis Dream (Lachance, 7-2) - Would have been my second choice except for the post. 
Selections: 1-5-4-2

2nd Pace - $253,700; Lady Liberty - Mares FFA
  1  Anndrovette (Tetrick, 3-1) - Main contender draws the rail.  The one to beat.
  2  Lightning Treasure (Dube, 25-1) - Must show she belongs with these.
  3  Rebeka Bayama (Filion, 20-1) - No shot in last two.  May be worth a look at long odds.
  4  Drop The Ball (Gingras, 5-2) - Draws outside Anndrovette, but taking a stab for value.
  5  Put On A Show (Jamieson, 7-2) - Seems to have returned to old form.  Picks up share.
  6  Rocklamation (Pierce, 8-1) - Don't ignore as she's been up close.
  7  Chancey Lady (Morrill, 20-1) - Not showing sign that she belongs in here.
  8  Krispy Apple (Sears, 12-1) - Another one worth a look at a price.
  9  Ginger And Fred (Palone, 15-1) -  Post should nip occasional good effort.
10  Higher And Higher (Bier, 15-1) - Not with these.
Selections: 4-1-6-5

3rd Trot - $30,000; Duenna - 3yo Fillies (2nd Division)
  1  Starglow Hall (Dube, 20-1) - Nothing to recommend.
  2  Sandra Volo (Pierce, 9-2) - Returns to regular driver.  Should be race better than last.
  3  Weekend Vacation (Tetrick, 10-1) - Lands share with better trip.
  4  Latte Hall (Campbell, 20-1) - This field may be too deep for her liking.
  5  Quarantine S (Jo Takter, 15-1) - Too inconsistent for my liking.
  6  D'Orsay (Callahan, 10-1) - Gets needed class relief.  My pick to win.
  7  Valdonna (Ji Takter, 4-1) - Not exactly burning them up. pass.
  8  Lady Andi (Sears, 3-1) - This is more her type of field.  Must use in exotics.
  9  Bluff (Gingras, 6-1) - Post kills what little chance it appears .
10  Chilitodayhotamale (D Miller, 6-1) - Up against it here.
Selections: 6-2-3-8 

4th Pace - $125,000; Miss New Jersey - 3yo Fillies (NJ Sired)
  1  Clear View Hanover (Brennan, 20-1) - Needed post relief, but just doesn't look like the one for me.
  2  Sarandon Blue Chip (D Miller, 3-1) - Can compete against these if she stays flat.
  3  Air Guitar Hanover (Tetrick, 6-1) - Seems to be in deep.
  4  Rockaround Sue (A Miller, 2-1) - Winner of  three straight looks to win it all.
  5  Notreadytobenice (Callahan, 15-1) - More of an overnight type.
  6  Blackjack Princess (MacDonald, 8-1) - Shown some life here before.
  7  Child's Play (Gingras, 12-1) -  Expect better effort from here.
  8  Mikeleh (Campbell, 20-1) - No chance in last yet moves up.
  9  Carolsideal (Dauplaise, 20-1) - Post makes for a tough start.
10  Pirouette Hanover (Pierce, 9-2) - Possibly land share with a trip.  Post hurts.
Selections: 4-2-3-6

NB Trot - $15,000; RUS Open
  1  Windsun Galaxie (Nichol) - Winner at Goshen will need to pick up tempo here.
  2  Ripped (Peterson) - First time starter. Must see first.
  3  Muscolo (Isbell) - Qualifier winner's rider a former jockey.  The one to beat.
  4  Celebrity Playboy (Andersson) - Closed gap in qualifier.  Must respect.
  5  Master Pine (H Gregory) - Rider has a victory and a second in series.  Definite factor.
  6  Take My Picture (Lindgren) - May be too far back.
  7  Chinese Cuisine (Duer) - Finished second in the  AM.  Expect to challenge.
  8  Zuerest (Kovacic) - Another first time starter.  Pass here.
  9  Armbro Doyle (Connor) - World record holder must be favored.  Post is a worry.
10  Blacktuxwhitesocks (Beraas) - Rider is tops in Norway.  Very good horse.  Draws the worst of it.
Selections: 3-10-5-9

5th Pace - $268,300; Sweetheart - 2yo Fillies
  1  Exotic Beach (Morrill, 25-1) - While I don't believe the last line, it does seem like she is overmatched.
  2  Nikki Beach (Sears, 9-5) - A perfect 3 for 3.  Not sure someone can stop her this week.
  3  Acquavella (Lachance, 12-1) - Has a good future ahead.  May compete for minor spoils.
  4  Cult Status (Tetrick, 8-1) - Finished second in prep; not sure she can catch the favorite.
  5  UF Dragon's Queen (A Miller, 15-1) - Goes well against state breds, yet to transfer to open company.
  6  Banner Beach Day (Pierce, 20-1) - Appears to have tailed off.
  7  Mistresstothestars (Gingras, 10-1) - On-off alternating weeks. May be on to land share.
  8  Jerseylicious (Callahan, 8-1) - Break may have been too long.
  9  Odds On Alpha  (Campbell, 5-1) - Will be firing early but not sure she can sustain it till the end.
10  Shebestingin (D Miller, 3-1) - A perfect 3 for 3 likely to end here, but good enough to be a threat; include in exotics.
Selections: 2-4-10-7

6th Pace - $309,050; Woodrow Wilson - 2yo Open - Start of $50,000 Gtd Pool Pick 4
  1  Nassau County (Gingras, 20-1) - Yet to show much in stakes company.
  2  Martini Hanover (Morrill, 8-1) - Looking for maiden win here.  A possibility at a reasonable price.
  3  Emeritus Maximus (A Miller, 20-1) - Expect more aggressive drive but may not be able to sustain.
  4  Muscle Beachboy (Sears, 15-1) - Been racing second tier state breds.  Pass.
  5  Captain Treacherous (Tetrick, 6-5) - Uncorking sub:27 final quarters on front end.  Logical choice.
  6  Rocky Mountain Guy (D Miller, 5-1) - Best efforts have come from the inside posts.
  7  Delaware Hanover (Callahan, 12-1) - Winning driver set to return to winning driver.
  8  Hail The Taxi (Campbell, 20-1) - Upset winner at The Hilltop.  Don't think will repeat.
  9  Source of Pride (Pierce, 7-2) - Post likely eliminates.
Selections: 2-7-5-9

7th Trot - $354,450; Merrie Annabelle - 2yo Fillies
  1  Find The Magic (Sears, 8-1) - Far back in elimination.  Clearly needs a trip to be a factor.  Suspect won't get it.
  2  Lady Rivera (Pierce, 12-1) - Far back of winner.  Can't dismiss.
  3  Raring To Go S (Gingras, 4-1) - Elimination winner in second PM start.  Expect improvement.
  4  To Dream On (D Millere, 4-5) - Has been flawless; the one to beat.
  5  Time To Kill (Campbell, 25-1) -  Will need a trip to be a factor.
  6  Dewey Lane (Morrill, 15-1) - Doesn't seem to belong here.
  7  Bethel Hanover (Brennan, 20-1) - NJ debut fell flat.  Pass.
  8  Royal Assets (Tetrick, 10-1) - Most likely will not sustain drive to end.  Possible change of tactics?
  9  Morningstar (Jo. Takter, 25-1) - Made the cut in elimination.  No such luck today.
10  Miss Steele (A Miller, 10-1) -Must catch an early tuck to be able to make a move.  Likely will fall short.
Selections: 4-3-10-8

8th Trot - $387,250; Peter Haughton Memorial - 2yo Colts and Geldings - Start $50,000 Gtd Pool Pick 5
  1  Major Athens (Sears, 2-1) - Winner of three straight.  Must factor in exotics.
  2  Dewycolorintheline (Tetrick, 7-2) - Likely to track Major Athens and make move later in the race.
  3  Corky (D Miller, 9-2) - Can;t fault the horse.  Don't ignore.
  4  Aperfectyyankee (Oscarsson, 15-1) - I keep coming back to this one.  Possible upset play?
  5  Max Andover (Jo Takter, 20-1) - Managed to qualify; don't see him doing much.
  6  Show Ticket (Gingras, 10-1) - Wasn't able to take advantage of trip last week; why now?
  7  My Man Can (A Miller, 6-1) - Finished third in debut.  Improves or bounces?  Your choice.
  8  Hall Of Muscles (Campbell, 20-1) - Nothing to suggest he an overcome outer post
  9  Cavea Emptor (Schnittker, 12-1) - Minor spoils with the right trip.
10  Fashion Blizzard (Morrill, 8-1) - Lands share with a trip.
Selections: 4-2-1-10

9th Trot - $50,000; Vincennes - Invitational
  1  Don't Know Chip (MacDonald, 7-2 ) - Should find this field a little easier.  Lands Share
  2  Coco Lindy (Tetrick, 3-1) - Winner of two straight is the likely favorite; overbet?
  3  Zooming (A Miller, 4-1) - Steps up off a win.  Reaching?
  4  Rose Run Hooligan (Pierce, 8-1) - Yet to show belongs with these.
  5  Sugar Queen Gabby (Dube, 20-1) - Mare can't be dismissed completely.
  6  The Evictor (Sears, 20-1) - Should find this field more to his liking.  Is it enough?
  7  Opening Night (Campbell, 15-1) - Flopped at this level.  Must remain within striking distance.&nbsp
  8  Likeabatoutahell (Morrill, 5-1) -  Maybe too far out of it to get involved.
  9  Tagyoureit Hanover (Brennan, 12-1) - Draws poorly; pass.
10  Swan In A Million (Lachance, 8-1) - 3 for 4 and shows closing move.  Hoping for a fast pace and last minute rush.
Selections:  10-2-1-3

10th Trot - $250,000; Nat Ray - Invitational
  1  Tall Cotton (Morrill, 20-1) - Apparent speed break in Maple Leaf.  Expect early movement.
  2  Hot Shot Blue Chip (Campbell, 8-1) - The local horse earns his way and more, but wins are few.
  3  Sevruga (A Miller, 12-1) - Expect better effort here and an attractive price.
  4  Chapter Seven (Tetrick, 9-5) -  Titan Cup winner getting the hype and may be well deserved
  5  Mister Herbie (Jamieson, 5-2) - Upset winner last week may find it harder this week.
  6  Anders Bluestone (Pierce, 6-1) - Horse has legitimate shot.  Don't ignore.
  7  Daylon Magician (Sears, 9-2) - Has gone well with provincial breds.  This is open company.
  8  Sharp Edge (D Miller, 15-1) - Meadows shipper is ambitiously placed. 
Selections: 3-4-5-6

11th Trot - $714,050; Hambletonian Oaks - 3yo Fillies - Oaks/Hambletonian Daily Double
  1  Superstar Hanover (Ji Takter, 15-1) - Positioned well to pick up the pieces.
  2  Check Me Out (Tetrick, 4-5) - The horse to beat.  Needless to say no value.
  3  Maven (Gingras, 5-2) - Only horse with realistic chance to defeat the favorite.  Will go for value here.
  4  Personal Style (D Miller, 12-1) - Hasn't raced well against the top two.
  5  Uncommon Night (Brennan, 15-1) - Finished second to top two in most recent races.  Not the place to look for first win of season.
  6  Real Babe (Schnittker, 20-1) - Seems well over her head.
  7  Win Missy B (Sears, 8-1) - If thinking a speed duel may occur, this one could benefit.
  8  Dream On Hanover (Campbell, 30-1) - Hoping for a minor share.
  9  Holier Than Thou (Pierce, 20-1) - Not against this bunch.
10  Sassy Syrinx (Morrill, 30-1) - Talk about aiming high.  Likely falling well short.
Selections: 3-2-1-7

12th Trot -$1,500,000; Hambletonian - 3yo Open - Start of $100,000 Gtd Pool Pick 4; $200,000 Gtd Pool Exacta
  1  Uncle Peter (Pierce, 5-2) - Real sharp in last.  Only question is what if pushed?  Logical choice on paper.
  2  Market Share (Tetrick, 4-1) - Figures to sit till the stretch.
  3  Knows Nothing (Jamieson, 7-2) - Must respect 7 for 8.  Can take it to them in the event of speed duel.  May happen.
  4  Archangel (Morrill, 9-2) - Legitimized self in elimination.  Should pick up a decent check. 
  5  My MVP (Lachance, 15-1) - Will require a collapse on the front end to pick up a piece.
  6  Prestidigitator (Filion, 12-1) - Tough trip last week.  The question is can he draw a decent trip?
  7  Guccio (Ji Takter, 8-1) - Seems to be improving, but maybe not enough.
  8  Stormin Normand (Palone, 15-1) -Peaked too soon?
  9  Money On My Mind (A Miller, 15-1) - Another one who may grab a piece if speed duel develops.
10  Gym Tan Laundry (Brennan, 30-1) - Winless this year.  Need I say more?
Selections: 3-2-1-4

13th Pace - $242,500; US Pacing Championship - FFA
  1  Golden Receiver (A Miller, 4-1) - Will try to go wire to wire.  Don't think it will happen.
  2  Allthatgltrsisgold (Sears, 20-1) - Ambitiously placed today.
  3  Bettor Sweet (Campbell, 6-1) -  Has not come back this year.  Seeking first win of season.
  4  Aracache Hanvoer (Brennan, 8-1) - Sharp mile at Nfld.  Once one dimensional horse now showing a new dimension.  My pick here.
  5  Meirs Hanover (Morrill, 10-1) - Don't see of last couple.
  6  Rockincam (D Miller, 20-1) - Should be satisfied with picking up a check.
  7  Valentino (Dube, 25-1) - Not this caliber of horse.
  8  We Will See (Pierce, 3-1) - Will be there at the wire.
  9  One More Laugh (Tetrick, 15-1) - Taking a shot at the top tier.  Likely falls short.
10  Won The West (Bartlett, 25-1) - Not the same this year.  Can't see.
11  Hypnotic Blue Chip (Jamieson, 12-1) - Should be able to get away good, but not sure that's enough.
12  Foiled Again (Gingras, 7-2) - Finished second in two big races on the half.  Returns to the mile track.  Just must avoide excess traffic.
#11 Hypnotic Blue Chip and #12 Foiled Again score from second tier.
Selections: 4-8-12-1

14th  Pace - $275,000; New Jersey Classic - 3yo Open (NJ Sired)
  1  Time To Roll (A Miller, 3-1) - Good spot for one who like to wing it.
  2  Shakerattlenrock (Lachance, 15-1) - Just qualified.  Will be happy to pick up a check.
  3  Ideal Champ (D Miller, 20-1) - Will likely need to be more aggressive to pick up a check.
  4  Rollnlikeabigshot (Tetrick, 10-1) - Nice acclimating drive in last.  Eligible to improve.
  5  Hurrikane Kingcole (Gingras, 7-5) - No Sweet Lou here. Likely winner.
  6  Panther Hanover (Filion, 5-1) -  Rode the rails to second place finish. 
  7  Simply Business (Pierce, 8-1) - Was last a sign or an aberration?  May be value play.
  8  I Fought Dalaw (Sears, 20-1) -  Seems outmatched here.
  9  All Stienam (Callahan, 20-1) - Outclassed.
10  Verdad (Morrill, 15-1) - Lands share with a trip.
Selections: 5-7-1-4

15th Pace - $22,000; Non-winners $16,000 Last 5 Starts ($50,000 Optional Claiming) - 5% Take Out Super High Five
  1  Great Vintage (Ji Takter, 8-1) - Should be able to work out a decent trip.
  2  Alexie Mattosie (D Miller, 6-1) - Needed post relief; lands minor spoils.
  3  Risk Management (Gingras, 15-1) - Must show more.  Pass.
  4  Bettor Design (Sears, 12-1) - Ships over from YR on the drop down.  Tab for later.
  5  Oscar Oscar (A Miller, 7-2) - Two seconds and good final quarter kick makes a possibility.
  6  Big Bam Ray (Pierce, 10-1) - Will be trying to work out a good trip.
  7  Cam B Zipper (Morrill, 15-1) - Meeting better.  Must see one first.
  8  Panesthetic (Lachance, 3-1) - Winner of two straight and draws inside of main foe.
  9  Meant To Be Me (Callahan, 5-1) - Wouldn't be a surprise, but you can't play them all.
10  Malak Uswaad N (Tetrick, 9-2) - Meeting cheaper but draws the worst of it; may cost victory.
Selections: 8-10-1-5-2


2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I appreciate your well-thought out selections. Keep them coming!

Pacingguy said...

Your welcome. Let's see if you appreciate them after Saturday:-)

All kidding, I enjoy doing them and appreciate the fact you recognize the fact. It takes quite a bit of time but hearing comments like yours makes it worthwhile.