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Friday, September 2, 2011

Canadian Pacing Derby; 0% Cal Expo Pick 4 Returns Sept 10

Cal Expo resumes it 0% take out late Pick 4 with Twin Spires next Saturday, September 10.  In addition to the 0% pick 4, the early pick 4 will have a reduced takeout as well.  Just a reminder, on the menu bar, you can find my selections for the Cal Expo Pick 4 for virtually every night of the Cal Expo meet.

There were only nine entrants for the Cane Pace so there is no need for eliminations.  The final will be held on closing night of the Tioga meet which will be next Saturday, September 10.

There is a stakes-filled card at Mohawk Raceway Saturday night.  The biggest races of the night will be the $832,000 Canadian Pacing Derby which features North America's greatest FFAllers.  Here is my analysis of the race.

Mohawk Raceway 10th Pace - $832,000; Canadian Pacing Derby - Open
  1 - Atochia (A Miller, 8-1) - Surprising elimination winner; doubt can pull it off again.
  2 - Foiled Again (Gingras, 5-2) - The once 'half mile' specialist won his elimination and may pull it off again.
  3 - Art Professor (Jamieson, 7-1) - Fave upended by Atochia last week.  Won't happen again.  Attractive odds.
  4 - We Will See (Pierce, 3-1) - Will try the overland route this week.  Live horse.
  5 - Won The West (D Miller, 5-1) - Pulls off the occasional win but realistically past his prime.  Pass.
  6 - St Elmo Hero (Waples, 10-1) - This year's feel good story.  May have problem getting to rail.
  7 - One More Laugh (Tetrick, 25-1) - Seems to be out of his league.  Pass.
  8 - Razzle Dazzle (Campbell, 30-1) - Another over his head. If 30-1 or over may want to take another look at him.
  9 - Alexie Mattosie ( Macdonnell, 8-1) - Haughton winner just qualified here.  Draws outside.  Not likely.
10 - Bettor Sweet (Sears, 10-1) - Last one to the dance looks to have a long night.
AE- Mach Dreamer (Zeron, AE) - A toss if he draws in.
Selections: 3-2-4-5  (Updated to reflect a correction of typo and to reflect the comments below)
On paper, it looks like Foiled Again would be victorious Saturday night.  However, this is the year of Jody Jamieson, and with racing on Jamieson's home turf, it is hard to go by his mount this week, Art Professor; especially at 7-1.  At 5-1 or higher, he is the horse to play.  Under 5-1, look at Foiled Again as I don't see him becoming a cheap favorite as his reputation as a half mile specialist preceedes him.